Stop Fretting!
We are now faced with a steady drumbeat of bad news. If you listen to NPR, if you watch CNN or one of the older networks, if you read Pravda-on-the-Hudson, Pravda-on-the-Potomac, or even, alas, The Wall Street Journal, you will be told ad nauseam that Mitt Romney is behind, that he is in grave danger of losing the swing states -- and you may well succumb to pessimism and not vote in November. That is the aim of American journalists, who are nearly all by now fiercely partisan Democrats; and this year, no less than in 2008, they form what one contributor to Ezra Klein's Journolist dubbed in that year "the unofficial campaign." The 2012 campaign is a test of the power of the legacy press in purveying what one can only term disinformation.
If you want to get a grip, I suggest that you read Dick Morris's recent post Why the Polls Understate Romney's Vote. I do not mean to say that Dick Morris is always reliable. In reading him, one must always ask whether the man who was spinmeister for Slick Willie back in the 1990s is up to something. In these matters, there is no substitute for the application of common sense. But, in this case, I would suggest that Morris's commentary stands the test. Here is the gist of what he has to say:
All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.
Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.
But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.
But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.
If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.
To this, Morris adds that, when job approval for an incumbent falls below 50% (as it has with some consistency in the case of Barack Obama), the undecided voters tend to break for his opponent. When the polls show "Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!"
Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.
Keep in mind that virtually all of the polls at this point in the cycle -- including Gallup -- are polls of registered voters. Rasmussen is an exception. His is a poll of likely voters, and, come election time, he ordinarily turns out to be right.
We should also keep in mind the possibility that turnout in 2012 will more nearly resemble turnout in 2010 than either 2008 or 2004. Our side is fired up -- and the only thing that we have to be pessimistic about is pessimism itself. The power of the unofficial campaign's disinformation effort -- that really is a worry!
Addendum: Here is something else to consider: the party affiliation data collected by Gallup. Here is what that organization reported in September 2010 -- on the eve of an historic Republican victory:
Slightly more Americans identify as Democrats or lean Democratic (44%) than identify as or lean Republican (41%) in September to date, re-establishing a Democratic edge that disappeared in August, when the parties were even. The Democrats' current positioning remains much weaker than it was at the time President Barack Obama took office, when they enjoyed a 17-point edge in party affiliation.
Here is what Gallup reported in early September, 2012 in the wake of Barack Obama's post-convention bounce. Take a close look at the data for June, July, and August. The odds are excellent that, after the bounce wore off, it drifted back towards the recent norm. Furthermore, keep in mind that Gallup is sampling registered voters, not likely voters, and that, except at the most unusual moments, self-identified Democrats greatly outnumber self-identified Republicans. When the former do not greatly outnumber the latter, the latter win when the ballots are cast.
Second Addendum: For further evidence, see Comment No. 64. The visual is telling.
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Comments:
Jan '12
Re: Stop Fretting!
Believing something we want to believe is always easier than believing something we do not.
Mar '11
Re: Stop Fretting!
I don't buy the argument that turnout will resemble 2010 more than 2008. Why? Because 2010 is more recent? Turnout was relatively low in 2010. Many of the same people who came out in 2008 will be back in 2012, and they will be back for the same reasons.
I was playing around with an electoral map last night, and was getting mighty depressed. Romney simply cannot win without Ohio. He better get that state figured out, and quick.
Oct '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
Perhaps the real test on November 6 will be the power of the MSM versus the power of the alternate news streams, like Ricochet or HuffPo. The verdict will determine the presidency for the next 4 years, yes, but also the direction of the US thereafter.
Notice the increasing stories about cyber attacks being prominently displayed in the MSM. Coupled with the coming, in a few days, Executive Order giving the President the authority to shut down the entire internet, and you will have your October surprise. Especially so if Israel acts on the Iran problem.
Tell me of your optimism for the election if, on October 30th, the crisis hits the fan, and, the MSM having said nothing of suspicion, we are all left to depend on the old way.
May '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
Actually, think again, conservatives tend to do the opposite.
What's truly unbelievable is how the media is so much an Obama propaganda arm this time. They aren't even pretending to report the "non-Obama-way-ahead polls."
I stopped watching television about a decade ago, and stopped listening to local radio about five years ago (when the archipelago of conservative broadcasters replaced them). Now, I occasionally get to hear, say, WNYC (NPR in NYC), and WABC's local newscasts, and it's like Romney is two laps behind--unreal.
Romney is serene. I wonder if Team Romney knows things that we don't. For example, maybe Romney has focus-grouped the idea--Dennis Prager talks about this all the time--that Romney needs to talk about losing American Exceptionalism won't?
Very frustrating to be a Romney supporter!
Maybe even Rasmussen's polling errs on the side of extreme caution?
Edited on September 22, 2012 at 5:36pmRe: Stop Fretting!
Many will, indeed, be back. Many will not. Obama has disappointed those who embraced hope and change. The African-American turnout will not be as large; the Hispanic turnout will be quite a bit smaller; and the youth turnout will drop off a cliff.
Romney is keeping his powder dry and saving money for October when many voters wake up and attend to what is going on.
Right now Gallup has a dead heat.
Dec '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
But fretting is what we do best.
Either way it's still a guess on what turnout will be. My guess is the left will be desperate to prevent the first black president from being repudiated while the right will be desperate to see his ideology and policies soundly rebuffed. This could very well be another election year that proves useless for predicting future election turnout results. We haven't really had a normal turnout since '04.
May '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
Paul A. Rahe
I agree that turnout will be an average of 2008 and 2010, but not closer to 2010. What you need to remember is that a larger number of Obama voters will either vote Romney, or just stay home. Staying home = 1/2 vote for Romney.
Edited on September 22, 2012 at 5:40pmAug '12
Re: Stop Fretting!
Fretting or not, I'm reminded of Orwell's admonition to the power-worshipers of his day. If the Nazis take Libya, they'll be in India next week. Oh, but look the British took Morocco, so they'll be marching through Paris tomorrow!
It is the same here. I have colleagues at work, who last week were fearing that Obama couldn't win. And now they think he might win. And here at Ricochet, two weeks ago we thought landslide and now we think disaster.
Changing your judgment everytime the news shifts just a little bit isn't judgment. Keep your cool and remember that it ain't over 'til it's over.
Romney by 2.
May '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
By the way, from a pure political standpoint, Morris' connection to Clinton is a +, not a - .
Nov '11
Re: Stop Fretting!
Gallup has Romney and Obama tied among registered voters. Rasmussen has Obama and Romney tied, and Obama up 1 when leaners are included.
The reasons for the current media blitz of "Romney is losing" and endless stories about "the 47%" seem pretty obvious to anyone who isn't mentally deficient or an MSNBC watcher.
It seems to me that the debates are terribly important this year.
Re: Stop Fretting!
True -- but from the perspective of trustworthiness?
Re: Stop Fretting!
Mothership_Greg: Gallup has Romney and Obama tied among registered voters. Rasmussen has Obama and Romney tied, and Obama up 1 when leaners are included.
The reasons for the current media blitz of "Romney is losing" and endless stories about "the 47%" seem pretty obvious to anyone who isn't mentally deficient or an MSNBC watcher.
It seems to me that the debates are terribly important this year. · 0 minutes ago
I think that they are always important. A disastrous performance can sink a candidate. Hitting the right note, as Reagan did in 1980, can cause a seismic shift in sentiment.
Mar '11
Re: Stop Fretting!
Earlier in the week, I posted a thread linking to an article about a poll that Rasmussen conducts which measures party identification and the results of elections when viewed through its prism. If the results of that poll bear out as they have since 1984, it would serve as further support for Morris' contention.
Someone made the point earlier that if Obama wins in November, in spite of the disasters that are piling up on his watch, the only conclusion we can draw will be that this country is closer to the tipping point than we thought. Not a particularly cheery thought, but one we must confront nonetheless.
Edited on September 22, 2012 at 6:27pmRe: Stop Fretting!
Illiniguy: Earlier in the week, I posted a thread linking to an article about a poll that Rasmussen conducts which measures party identification and the results of elections when viewed through its prism. If the results of that poll bear out as they have since 1984, it would serve as further support for Morris' contention.
Someone made the point earlier that if Obama wins in November, in spite of the disasters that are piling up on his watch, the only conclusion we can draw will be that this country is closer to the tipping point than we thought. Not a particularly cheery thought, but one we must confront nonetheless. · 14 minutes ago
Edited 14 minutes ago
Amen, alas.
May '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
Paul A. Rahe
True -- but from the perspective of trustworthiness? · 14 minutes ago
Moral trustworthyness or ability to sense and analyze the state of the race? Maybe its an open question re former, but I trust him re later.
Aug '12
Re: Stop Fretting!
raycon:
Notice the increasing stories about cyber attacks being prominently displayed in the MSM. Coupled with the coming, in a few days, Executive Order giving the President the authority to shut down the entire internet, and you will have your October surprise.
I'm not sure how many understand how deeply mission-critical the Internet is to business in this country. Shut down the Internet and all commerce in this country - from the mom-and-pop to the fortune 100 -
will stop.
May '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
Maybe it's the last refuge of a scared me, but throughout the primaries, Romney seemed to back-load (wait for the 4th Quarter) to win every close primary. It's a reasonable strategy: keep it close until the home stretch; create somewhat of a complacency lull then go full out; deprive the other side time to respond. Well, lets hope...
Edited on September 22, 2012 at 6:59pmJul '10
Re: Stop Fretting!
I really make a point of listening to what my non-political friends and coworkers say and it’s what I’m not hearing makes me fretful. I am not hearing much about gas prices, high unemployment, slow economic growth, Obama Care, attacks on American embassies or the 16 trillion dollar debt. I only hear concern about these issues when I am in my conservative media bubble. The reality inside and outside the bubble is very stark and troubling. It leads me to suspect that the polls are right.
I also have my own nagging doubts and I wonder if the Republicans are really ready to lead if they win.
Jan '11
Re: Stop Fretting!
I'm a political junkie, but not a political pro. I have no way of knowing what the vote will actually be.
But I have a well-trained ear, and I'm sadly well-experienced in listening to people trying to make arguments by distraction. The press is working overtime to manufacture excuses for Obama, and to manufacture accusations against Romney ... but meanwhile, while they're smugly lecturing us on camera, behind them the Middle East is in flames, the economy is inert, and the debt is skyrocketing.
People notice these things.
Things aren't how they're telling us they are. A metaphor for the current press coverage: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8slEPV9LyS0
Dec '11
Re: Stop Fretting!
To defeat the voter suppression tactic of the Obama campaign we need to gin up a "No Confidence" campaign. It should be a message to every voter that even if you believe Obama is going to win, how will you feel if you didn't vote "No Confidence" on election day? Your "No Confidence" vote, even if Obama wins, puts every politician on notice that they are career-limited unless they do their utmost to restrain this man. Your "No Confidence" vote will demonstrate that Obama does not have (if he ever did) a mandate to persist in government takeover of personal decision-making and responsibilities. The "No Confidence" campaign will remind Tea Partiers why they came out in 2010 and why Romney-Ryan need not be deserving of their support. "No Confidence" is the key to GOTV.