Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
Richard Young ·
Aug 12, 2011 at 3:47pm
Why is anyone paying attention to the Iowa straw poll? I just don’t get the relevance of a poll where the contestants essentially buy the votes.
Romney foolishly spent $10 million last year and his non-participation this year is a big indicator that he at least has the sense not to make the same mistakes twice.
As one pundit put it, paraphrasing, anyone that leaves the race because of the Iowa straw poll never had a chance anyway.
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Jun '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
I understand why Pawlenty, who is on the ropes, needs a symbolic victory, but in general agree with your thoughts.
I even boycotted the debate (though I did follow the last part of the live Ricochet chat--which was a lot more interesting and humorous when not watching the debate).
Debates don't mean anything to me until you get down to four or fewer candidates. An eight-person debate is more of a rugby scrum than a thoughtful discussion of issues.
Edited on Aug 12, 2011 at 3:19pmAug '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
After watching these things for years, I've come to the conclusion that the straw poll is essentially a way to buy cheap advertising time for fringe candidates.
For example, last night people like Herman Cain, John Huntsman, and Rick Santorum got several hours of coverage on the largest cable news network on TV. They get writeups in the Iowa papers and in the national press, and if they can get in a zinger or two it will be repeated on national TV. For a candidate struggling for name recognition, that's worth gold - far more than the money they'll spend buying votes. In the meantime, they're building a ground game in Iowa, building loyalty by paying for entrants into the poll, and honing their campaign rhetoric. In addition, they rise in stature just being seen on an equal field with the front-runners.
So I can see why the candidates do it. As for why we all pay attention to it... Because the media is starved for political news, and Iowa is sort of the first shot in the campaign. If the straw poll came after the first primary or caucus somewhere, no one would care.
Jun '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
The fact that Ron Paul is considered a serious contender to win the straw poll proves your point: it's utterly irrelevant.
Dec '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
I would say that it's one of the only fun and/or exciting parts of the primary campaign season. It kind of has a kegger feel to it.
Dec '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
The frontrunner tends to want to skip it. Being the frontrunner, he has little to gain, McCain skipped it last time.
Don't be surprised, though, if there are a lot of write-ins for Romney. He's savvy that way and with zero expectations, he "wins".
What is it? It's a fundraiser by the IA GOP timed to coincide with the State Fair. It makes the news because it can. There's nothing else going on (except wherever Perry is).
But it's really the last chance for a candidate to make a breakout before the caucuses. Maybe there's another debate, but with all of those people on stage it won't matter. Plus, the story is Romney, Perry and Palin, none of whom are there. So the long-term takeaway will be one person. I think it'll be Bachmann.
A lot of this will be a last-ditch effort on behalf of candidates. I get the feeling that T-Paw is desperate. Whether the others drop out or not, they'll be effectively gone.
The straw poll demonstrates to potential donors the ability to organize, especially for a low-tier candidate.
Dec '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
I dunno. You never know with Ron Paul. The Paulestinians had a big presence in 2008 and it didn't come to much. They argued that they had only recently come upon money by the time the Straw Poll hit, but I think that they won't be able to round up any more people than last time.
My prediction is that Bachmann wins but that the big story is the number of write-ins for Perry. I'll say he comes in second. Paul will finish third but effectively tied with at least one other person.
I base this, of course, on absolutely no evidence whatsoever. So just call me Larry Sabato.
Dec '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
I don't personally know anybody in Iowa that cares about it, including politically active family members.
It's a joke with the finger pointed out towards the people that take it seriously. A snipe hunt for journalists from away, but, shhhhh, don't tell them.
Jul '11
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
Probably right, but in order to winnow the field there needs to events for candidates to demonstrate their abilities to garner support, organize and run a staff, etc. So Iowa serves as a sort of first cut and, as a result, clarifies the race going forward.Thus the desperation of the Pawlenty camp - a poor showing provides donors all the information they need that money thrown his way may as well be used to barbecue ribs.
You are, of course, correct that a decent showing in Iowa is no indication of strength in future contests (after all, Ron Paul is expected to do well!), but weakness in Iowa for candidates trying to build a campaign from scratch is a death sentence. Leading contenders, in contrast, can afford to skip because they've already demonstrated the requisite skills to compete.
Does that warrant all the media attention it receives? Of course not, but the media need something to fill the news cycle, so they hype it beyond all reason.
Feb '11
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
CJRun: ...I don't personally know anybody in Iowa that cares about it ...
... It's a joke with the finger pointed out towards the people that take it seriously. A snipe hunt for journalists from away
You're probably right. I lived in Ames in the late 60's and early 70's, before the advent of the straw poll. It was, for that era, about as apolitical a place as you could imagine. At the height of the Viet Nam protest there was a grand total of one demonstration. It was like a big block party and drew a good crowd. Some came to chuckle at the few and hopelessly comic demonstrators. Ames' token hippie community wandered around in it's usual Cannabis fog. Most of the guys were there to check out the girls. Any girl who weighed less than 180 and didn't have a farmer tan was considered 'HOT." If you wanted fevered anti war activity you decamped from Moo U to Iowa City or Grinnell. I've been back a number of times since then. Aside from the university entangling itself in the flypaper nonsense of PC, little had changed. Hopefully, that's still true.
Edited on Aug 13, 2011 at 5:20amMay '10
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
The straw poll is about the equivalent of going to Haight-Ashbury and Pier 39 and taking a street poll to set the Dem field.
Mar '11
Re: Spotlight on the Silly Straw Poll
I can certainly see why Iowans might want to participate. It looks like a lot of fun but what puzzles me is the media attention it generates. I guess it has to do as much with tradition as anything else.