Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
In the universe of conservative pundits, there are few people who do the job better than the Weekly Standard’s Noemie Emery, who also writes a regular column for the D.C. Examiner. Thus it’s a special treat for me to voice some disagreement with her most recent piece, if for no other reason than it’s proof that she’s a mere mortal.
Emery’s boldly asserted thesis is made plain in her opening:
Different men are made for different moments in life, and Chris Christie's moment is here. Or, rather, it will be here a year from now, when he gives in to public demand and to destiny and decides to, yes, run for president.
Emery then goes on to list four reasons that this is Christie’s moment, three of which are solid (the fourth -- that Christie “looks ethnic” enough to take the edge off of the race issue in the 2012 election -- is a Hail Mary). She makes a compelling case and I heartily second her euphoria at the notion of a Christie candidacy. What I question, however, is her conclusion. The wish should not be made the father of the belief. Chris Christie is not running for president in 2012.
There’s nothing unorthodox about potential presidential candidates denying White House ambitions, as Christie repeatedly has. But the fashion in which he is disavowing upward mobility will make it virtually impossible for him to change his mind. Like the concept of a “commitment strategy” in game theory – where an individual takes tangible steps to lock himself into a course of action – Christie’s previous statements effectively prevent him from running for president in 2012 unless he wants to ruin his image for straight talk and get run through with his own words.
Just a few weeks ago, Christie told Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday, “You have got to believe in your heart that you’re personally ready to be president, and I’m not there … I am not arrogant enough to believe that after one year as governor of New Jersey and seven years as the United States attorney that I’m ready to be president of the United States. So I’m not going to run.”
Place that alongside his similar statements in the recent past: “You have to be really, in your gut and in your heart, ready to be president of the United States, if you decide to run for that. And - and I simply do not have the desire to do it, nor do I think I'm ready.” Then there was the slightly more blunt “Short of suicide, I don't really know what I'd have to do to convince you people that I'm not running.”
Christie’s two biggest strengths are his matter-of-fact style and his reputation for ruthless competency. If he ran for president in the wake of these remarks, he would ruin both. It’s hard to sell yourself as a straight shooter when the very fact of your candidacy gives the lie to everything you’ve been saying for more than a year. And it’s hard to tout yourself as the right man for the job when there’s an extensive video record of you making the opposite claim.
Chris Christie is not running in 2012. But don’t be surprised if he takes a keen interest in the New Hampshire governor’s race come 2014.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
He is a comer, but it is too soon this round. Let's see who can finish a successful term or two as governor down the road.
Dec '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
Christie has far too many east coast RINO tendencies for me to support him in a presidential bid.
I'd sooner back Mittens than Christie, and loath Romney.
New Jersey can keep him, they're gonna need a decade of union busting just to get back up zero on their ledger anyway.
Now, if some intrepid Conservative president were to make him the head of the DoEd, with the mandate to first break the teacher's union and then dissolve the office, I'd do a little dance in support.
But not as president. You name it, he's on the wrong side of it. Gun Control, Property Rights, the GZ Mosque, Welfare, and on and on and on.
The only thing he's right about is the teacher's unions.
Of course, when he's right, he's really really right.
Sep '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
In that picture I just had a chilling flashback to Bert Lance. I don't know why.
Jun '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
He looks ethnic???? Where the heck does Emery live? Sweden, perhaps? He's half Irish/half Italian. I seriously doubt that in the year 2011 anyone considers that to be some exotic combination. Ha ha!
I also know a few incredibly wealthy New Jerseyans who have had fundraisers for him. Perhaps they don't have quite the cachet as the Manhattan elites, but they're certainly willing to put up money quietly behind the scenes. Christie will be running, but I agree it won't be in 2012.
May '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
[...]the fourth -- that Christie “looks ethnic” enough to take the edge off of the race issue in the 2012 election -- is a Hail Mary[....]
He sounds ethnic, at least to an ear raised in the heartland, so the point Emory makes is valid.
Dec '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
I couldn't agree with your assessment any more than I already do, Tony. I absolutely love Chris Christie for what he is, and a large part of me wishes things were different and that someone like Gov. Christie could run and be elected...but now is not that time.
In no particular order, who do you think are the 3-4 top choices in 2012? Not necessarily who your favorites are, but who are the legitimate favorites, in your mind?
Thanks!
Jun '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
He sounds like me. I never thought of my speech pattern as ethnic. Just Jersey. Although not the tony-pony Jersey speech of Christie Whitman.
May '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
I'd describe the sound as very Jersey, urban, Catholic, union, hierarchical (or, more bluntly, bullying), sophisticated (or, more bluntly, cynical) and communitarian. In other words, very much Democratic Coalition, as it was before the McGovern-Obama axis got its tentacles on it. To hear that voice come out of a Republican mouth is astonishing. To hear it articulate smart, confident, uncompromising fiscal reality is a miracle.
Jun '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
Well, Fredosphere, that's just because you must be used to listening to the Jersey politicians and not typical Jersey guys & gals. I hear dozens of Christies living on my block, at family gatherings, at the PTA, at our kids' hockey games and concerts...... We come from a wide range of socio-economic groups, but we still sound the same and more and more frequently are voicing the same concerns that Christie does.
He really represents the heart of his NJ constituents who don't have a seat on the shameful government gravy train.
Nov '10
Re: Sorry, But No Chris Christie in 2012
Troy, you comment, "Chris Christie is not running in 2012. But don’t be surprised if he takes a keen interest in the New Hampshire governor’s race come 2014."
It sounds like you think that we are going to get 8 years of Obama. If so, I hope you are incorrect.