Some Things to Ponder About the Republican Primary
According to bettors on Intrade.com, the following are the probabilities that each of the top four candidates will win the Republican primary: Romney: 85.3%, Santorum: 3.6%, Gingrich: 2.2%, Paul: 1.4%.
This morning marks approximately the halfway point of the primary season. Specifically, 22 out of 50 states have held their primary election or caucus. Suppose you were asked a year ago, “At the halfway point in the primary season, what would you guess will be the probability that one of the top-two candidates will be the eventually winner?” I would have said something like 99%, and maybe something like 99.7%.
At present, this clearly is not the case. The probability that the winning candidate won’t be one of the current top two (Romney or Santorum) is about 11%. Perhaps more surprising, the probability that the winner won’t be one of the top four is 6.5%--about 15 to 1 odds. The latter is a long shot, but not a huge long shot. I’ve seen lots and lots horses with longer odds win at the track.
Some very interesting events may be in store between now and the last day of the Republican convention.