So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
The National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the recession ended in June, 2009. But the announcement means only that in June ’09 the “trough” or lowest point was identified. Technically expansion began then, but by no one’s view has that expansion brought us back to where we should be.
This announcement offers opportunity for political rhetoric, both fair and unfair.
The Democrats are suddenly handed a nice little sound-bite 6 weeks before the election: “We cured the recession!!!”
Fair? Hardly. President Obama’s stimulus package was 4 months old by then, and there are plenty of old Paul Krugman articles where he claims real impact wasn’t felt until after June '09, or that it didn't work.
Question: Was there anything George Bush did, like his TARP program, that had an impact on ending the recession, or was the end part of the natural cycle of the market?
Bonus: In the same announcement, the NBER stated that any further downturn in the economy will be “…a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.”
That will take away Obama’s most exhausted rhetoric: “It’s all George Bush’s fault!”
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
I heard an economist say, what we're seeing here is a mild productivity bounce. If you lay off all your second-string players, you'll get an increase in productivity, and profits, but it's not sustainable. You're going to burn out your starting players, and there's nobody on the bench to step in. Hire back all the "second-string players," and there goes your feeble growth. That's why unless you have robust growth, you may get a double dip.
May '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
A double dip is inevitable, isn't? The mistakes that led to this recession, such as buying homes for people who can't afford them, are being repeated. Doesn't that all but guarantee that our economy will sink again? Granted, nobody knows when.
Next year's profits were pushed into this year, anyway.
Aug '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Well, if the Democrats' last 10 years of economic rhetoric is any indicator, the credit for ending the recession will go to... Bill Clinton.
Aug '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Whatever "end" of the recession we may have had is despite Obama's policies or TARP - not because of them. I believe it happened because of the underlying strength of the US economy - you can't keep it down forever.
However, I also believe the recovery will be very anemic because of Obama's massive federal spending. If the boneheads in Washington would've just accepted this recession as a normal part of our economic cycle we would be poised for a robust recovery instead of the 1-2% growth we're liable to get for the next couple of years. A double dip recession remains a possibility as well.
May '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Who ended the recession? The statisticians "ended" it, in that this is a game of definitions and measurements. Just "fun with numbers".
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
@BluAnt: Funny!
@G.A. Dean: True. True.
May '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Tommy De Seno:
The Democrats are suddenly handed a nice little sound-bite 6 weeks before the election: “We cured the recession!!!”
Let them try to sell that. Back in 1992 George H.W. Bush had the statistics and analysis on his side. The economy was doing better that people thought and he said so. Bill Clinton went with perception over economic metrics and won with it.
Jul '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Slightly off-topic, but:
I see a headline over at MSN: "Economic Team Loses Summers".
That's kinda like saying "Terminal Cancer Patient Cured of Herpes".
Jul '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
First off, let us be clear.
When they say Recession they mean the Decline. The Decline ended June 2009, but the economy is still in the trough and has not started back up.
So to rational thinking people, the Recession is still in progress, as we've seen this current stagnancy reminicent of the Carter years. (We've been fortunate not to have inflation included with this version of malaise.)
I'm just waiting for the Republicans to start doing the Right things to the Economy so Obama can blame all the Business people of holding on to their money deliberatly to get Republicans into office so they could begin investing again. Mark my words, The One will accuse them of colusion to try to ruin his presidency and make him FAIL, as Limbaugh commanded them to do.
May '10
Re: So Who Ended The Recession - Bush, Obama or the Market?
Continuing Jaydee's thought, if the economy remains weak over the next two years, presumably under a Republican House, Obama and the Democrats will surely try to blame it on Republican budgetary mismanagement and opposition to helpful initiatives. Should Republicans already be thinking about this? Will the GOPs strategy have much effect on the potency of the Dems' claim? Or is it always the President's party that takes the hit for a bad economy?