So When is It Over?
Pundits and officialdom have been quick to say that killing bin Laden does not mean the war is over; that we are still at risk; that the battle continues:
In brief comments on Monday, Clinton said bin Laden's death was a milestone in the war on terrorism, but stressed that the "battle to stop al-Qaida and its syndicate of terror" is not over.
I'm not sure with whom they're arguing; no one seriously imagines this will be the end of the problem--although I'll go out on a punditry limb and say it may be the beginning of the end. Or is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
But when, then, do we know it's over? We never defined the war, after all. It was supposedly a war "on terror." No one ever accepted that as a coherent formulation. We all know it's a war on al Qaeda, and maybe a war on expansionary political Islam, and some--definitely not me, as you know--believe it's a war on Islam itself. We are at war in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya; we're sure not at peace with Pakistan, and we are clearly operating in Yemen.
The most obvious and essential war aim has been achieved. Osama bin Laden is dead. We were all certain of that goal, at least.
I think it's safe to say the war is not over until every active member of al Qaeda is dead, in custody, or otherwise pacified. But it's hard to prove a negative: How do we know there is no al Qaeda left? How do we know when the ideology itself has lost power to compel?
The Second World War ended when the Japanese surrendered. The Cold War ended when the Berlin Wall fell. Socialism, alas, did not die, but clearly that was the end of the war with the Soviet Union.
Is it "the end" when all of the troops come home? When we decide the threat is so remote that granny needn't take off her shoes when she goes through airport security? Is it the end when political Islam is spent and exhausted and discredited? How will we know?
If it's truly a war on "terror," are we obliged to keep fighting until the PKK and the ETA lay down their arms?
When do we get to say, "America's secure and at peace" again?
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Comments :
Re: So When is It Over?
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
When do we get to say, "America's secure and at peace" again? ·
I can't envision us ever saying that again. I hope I'm wrong.
Dec '10
Re: So When is It Over?
When Mollie Norris gets to go home and use her own name again. And when Comedy Central decides that it can air South Park episodes, regardless of content, without giving Al-Qaeda and its followers the beheader's veto.
Jul '10
Re: So When is It Over?
When Islamabad is a smoking, radioactive crater.
Jul '10
Re: So When is It Over?
At the Second Coming....
Dec '10
Re: So When is It Over?
In realistic terms, and likely in the view of historians, the "War on Terror" will be over when large numbers of conspiring and organized Islamist terrorists and their enablers stop trying to mass murder Americans. Hopefully that will not be after tens of millions are killed.
However, even if that happens tomorrow, as these things go, as a political rallying cry the WoT may never be over. Nor will the War on Drugs (WoD). In fact, the WoT is currently being redefined to include the WoD.
These phrases and labels become slogans and symbols around which people who support them, as contemporaneously defined by the promoters, rally.
Dec '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Praveen Swami argues that al-Qaeda is in many ways a greater threat than ever:
The stark truth is this: a decade after 9/11, the jihadist movement is more powerful than at any time in the past. Bin Laden himself, the scholar C. Christine Fair has noted, has emerged as a "kind of Che Guevara of the jihadist movement" – an inspirational icon who could fire the imagination of young recruits. Bin Laden's death – or, to the faithful, his martyrdom – might prove to be his last service for his macabre cause.
In 2001, on the eve of 9/11, al-Qaeda had a core of just less than 200 cadre – 120 of them in a crack fighting unit. Perhaps 1,000 men had graduated from its Afghan training camps, but they were riven by ideological dissension. Now, jihadist groups that associate themselves with al-Qaeda's project are asserting influence from eastern China and central Asia to the furthest reaches of North Africa. The war against terror has thus seen al-Qaeda flower, not die.
Dec '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Swami also (largely) agrees with Kenneth:
Bin Laden's likely successors – the Egyptian jihad veteran Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's poet-warrior Abu Yahya al-Libi and organisational genius Saif-al-Adel – are all in Pakistan. Gen Kayani has made clear that he has no intention of moving troops into North Waziristan, where Muhammad Illyas Kashmiri's camps are training jihadists to target the West, and have demonstrated no will to go after al-Qaeda elsewhere.
For decades, Western governments have sought, in essence, to bribe Pakistan into a strategic alliance. Gen Kayani has made clear that Pakistan sees things very differently: the West's war against terror, in his view, has mired his country in an existence-threatening crisis, which the army wants out of. That is a choice neither the West, nor Pakistan's citizens, the principal victims of the jihadists on its soil,
can afford.
There are few good options from here: Pakistan and the West are entering a new and profoundly perilous stage in their relationship. Bin Laden's killing might be the end of one phase of the war on terror, but it is profoundly unlikely to be the beginning of peace.
Jun '10
Re: So When is It Over?
When Iran is a democracy and Saudi Arabia has run out of oil. Otherwise, I'd just settle with keeping my shoes on when going through airport security.
Sep '10
Re: So When is It Over?
It will be over when the U.S. Government gets the stones to do to our mortal enemies what it did on Sunday night. "Bin Laden" a few mullahs and Islamic dictators around the globe who preach hatred of the U.S. and justifications for killing non-believers and see how long it takes before we get nothing but respect.
Or, imagine what a group of Navy Seals could do to the Iranian Parliament when they are in session. Its time to step up our version of the assymetrical war on terror and end this thing.
Edited on May 5, 2011 at 6:39pmDec '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Reuters:
WASHINGTON - Al-Qaida considered attacking the US rail sector on the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, US government officials said on Thursday in describing intelligence from Osama bin Laden's hide-out in Pakistan.
They said some evidence was found indicating that the al-Qaida leader or his associates had engaged in discussions or planning for a possible attack on a train inside the United States on Sept. 11, 2011.
"We have no information of any imminent terrorist threat to the US rail sector, but wanted to make our partners aware of the alleged plotting," spokesman Matthew Chandler said of an intelligence message the Department of Homeland Security sent on Thursday.
Feb '11
Re: So When is It Over?
Anyone else read a book called the Fourth Turning?
It's been a while. But I recall that per the Howe/Strauss thesis eventually society turns to total war, using every tool it has, to bring overwhelming victory.
That is, eventually, islamabad will be a smoking crater, along with many other cities of the ummah- or the cities of America will suffer that fate at the hand of the islamists.
Both are ugly vile options- but I know which I prefer.
Oct '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Once again I find myself in agreement with Kenneth. It's time to quit kidding ourselves. We will either defeat Islamism, or we will be defeated by them. In the doddering years of a once great America, we have become the real losers in the WoT.
Oct '10
Re: So When is It Over?
When I can once again carry my rifle in a soft case onto a commercial airliner and stow it in the bin over my seat - as I did for many years when flying from NY to Denver.
Unfortunately, it won't happen in my lifetime.
Aug '10
Re: So When is It Over?
It's over when we get sick of protecting a country where apostasy is a capital crime by spending billions of dollars on a second country that has proven completely perfidious with us and is a major state sponsor of terror against the civilized democracy unfortunate enough to border it.
At such a point we'll redefine the mission to a retaliatory strike for 9/11 and realize that the mission was mostly accomplished by early 2002 with the last major element of the retaliation now resting comfortably in Davy Jone's locker with one in the head and one in the chest. Such a realization means we can draw down our major troop deployments and leave the Afghans to their traditional pursuits of heroin, killing each other, corruption, and generally finding new and innovative ways to be barbarians.
Sure, we'll have the occasional wet work for decades to come, but as far as brigade deployments are concerned it will be over.
I hope this realization happens tomorrow so we can go out on a high note, but it will happen sooner or later.
Edited on May 5, 2011 at 10:25pmAug '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Xennady: Anyone else read a book called the Fourth Turning?
It's been a while. But I recall that per the Howe/Strauss thesis eventually society turns to total war, using every tool it has, to bring overwhelming victory.
Unfortunately the Howe and Strauss thesis (of dialectical generational change) has completely and totally failed to be borne out by systematic survey data. The whole "millennial" thing is pretty much snake oil.
Jun '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Del Mar Dave: When I can once again carry my rifle in a soft case onto a commercial airliner and stow it in the bin over my seat - as I did for many years when flying from NY to Denver.
Unfortunately, it won't happen in my lifetime. · May 5 at 6:55pm
But that's our own doing, the TSA is a farce. It may well be that no one has the political courage to end it in our lifetimes, but that's completely unrelated to the question of whether it's actually effective or necessary.
Feb '11
Re: So When is It Over?
anon_academic
Unfortunately the Howe and Strauss thesis (of dialectical generational change) has completely and totally failed to be borne out by systematic survey data. The whole "millennial" thing is pretty much snake oil. · May 5 at 6:59pm
I disagree. I'm interested to hear why you believe that, in more detail than describing the theory as snake oil.
Aug '10
Re: So When is It Over?
Xennady
I disagree. I'm interested to hear why you believe that, in more detail than describing the theory as snake oil. · May 5 at 7:09pm
If you look in large-scale repeated cross-sectional surveys like the General Social Survey or the American National Election Studies, Howe and Strauss would predict that you should see fairly large and cyclical changes by birth cohort every twenty years or so and these patterns should cycle over every 60 or 70 years. There are fairly large cohort effects on attitudes, but they don't follow the particular cyclical patterns Howe and Strauss say they should. In particular there's a reasonably big shift for birth cohorts before versus after about 1950, but the "boomers," "gen X," and "millenials" are all actually pretty similar to each other. Other attitudes are essentially linear (eg, attitudes about homosexuality). There are no attitudes that follow the cyclical patterns they suggest.
I initially thought it was an interesting theory but it just hasn't panned out in systematic data and it bothers me that they failed to back down in the face of strong disconfirming evidence.
(On "snake oil," see this article).
Edited on May 5, 2011 at 7:37pmMar '11
Re: So When is It Over?
Ok, now I understand.
Kenneth - what about Mecca, Medina, Cairo, Mashad, Qum, Shiraz, Isfahan, Jerusalem, Istanbul - I could go on - also smoking, radioactive craters?
Mar '11
Re: So When is It Over?
Dave - I agree, especially about Iran - that is the key - though we don't have to wait for Saudi Arabia to run out of oil if we:
1. Drill, baby, drill. (boy, that Sarah Palin sure is stupid)
2. Frack, baby, frack
3. Develop artificial carbon-based fuels