Signs of a Slowdown
By the time the economic numbers come out, and then later when they're (inevitably) adjusted downwards, the signs have already been apparent, if anyone cared to look.
Everyone, I guess, has his own favorite early metric. We've all got a personal leading indicator: the number of people at the movies on a weekday; how crowded the Best Buy is on a Saturday afternoon; gas prices; that sort of thing.
My indicator is container shipping activity -- how many ships are being chartered suggests a lot about the coming economic news. From Bloomberg:
Plunging rates for chartering container vessels that carry sneakers, furniture and flat-screen TVs may signal a U.S. consumer slowdown and losses for shipping lines in what is traditionally their busiest time of the year.
Fees for hiring vessels have fallen 9.3 percent since the end of April, according to the Howe Robinson Container Index, which tracks charter rates for a range of vessels. Last year, the index surged 56 percent in the period, as lines added ships on demand from U.S. and European retailers restocking for the back-to-school and holiday shopping periods.
“The troubling part is that charter rates are falling in the peak season,” said Johnson Leung, head of regional transport at Jefferies Group Inc. in Hong Kong. “Sentiment among consumers and retailers isn’t very strong.”
Of course, I'm a container ship weirdo. I find them fascinating. I have "container shipping" as one of my "sparks" on Google+. So that's my indicator, and it's not pointing in a good direction. Anyone have an indicator that's pointing to good news?
- Comment (31)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments:
Oct '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Oct '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Oct '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Oct '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Oct '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
crazy laptop error
Edited on August 17, 2011 at 4:40amMar '11
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Rob, you were beaten to this indicator at least a of year ago. Heard it on NPR's Planet Money at least a year ago. Can't find it now of course...
Yeah, I know that Planet Money is a bit biased towards the Keynsians, but they have this great enthusiasm for their topic and they do put on a good show. Worth catching.
May '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
1. Commodity prices (except gold & silver) tanking in anticipation of a slowdown. 2. As Peter recently commented from his Nantucket holiday, everyone in the financial community expecting inflation in spite of the FED promising 0 interest rates for 2 years.
John Mauldin recently published the book "Endgame - the end of the debt super cycle" which has a ton of indicators and is the scariest book I have ever read. The problem is that he was anticipating endgame starting up in 2-5 years if we don't take dramatic remedial action ------- but endgame is starting now along the lines he laid out. If his projections are correct (and they make sense to me) we are entering a period that will make 2008/9 look like a walk in the park.
Our next President could well wish for the problems inherited from GW that O continually complains (whines) about, rather than what he has to deal with.
May '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Forgot to mention - one indicator to watch is treasuries. Bernake and Timmy are creating a bubble to beat all bubbles (think tulips + tech + housing ++). When it bursts, as eventually it must, there will be 360 degrees of holy moley indicators.
Jun '11
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Steve MacDonald: 1. Commodity prices (except gold & silver) tanking in anticipation of a slowdown. 2. As Peter recently commented from his Nantucket holiday, everyone in the financial community expecting inflation in spite of the FED promising 0 interest rates for 2 years.
John Mauldin recently published the book "Endgame - the end of the debt super cycle" which has a ton of indicators and is the scariest book I have ever read. The problem is that he was anticipating endgame starting up in 2-5 years if we don't take dramatic remedial action ------- but endgame is starting now along the lines he laid out. If his projections are correct (and they make sense to me) we are entering a period that will make 2008/9 look like a walk in the park.
Our next President could well wish for the problems inherited from GW that O continually complains (whines) about, rather than what he has to deal with. · Aug 17 at 12:23am
Have not read "Endgame" but I will agree that the wild card is the amount of debt created in the last couple of generations. Uncharted territory.
However, it can be overcome by a resilient, innovative culture.
Jun '11
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
One more bullish indicator:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44161947
These buyers can be wrong short term but they are the people who actually see what is going on in the economy.
Aug '10
Re: Signs of a Slowdown
Listening to Mark Steyn on Brass Balls Radio this morning, he pegged it when he said that since the admin couldn't get taxes raised , they just figured out how to tax future tax payers instead, as usual Steyn rules.