Sideways Jobs
The new jobs report is out. It's....sideways. From National Journal:
The economy added more than twice as many jobs in June as analysts expected, according to a private-sector employment report.
Private nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from a disappointing May gain of just 36,000, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report. Analysts had only expected payrolls to grow by about 70,000.
Strong performance in the service, goods-producing, and manufacturing sectors contributed to the unexpectedly large increase, as did the end of short-term transitory factors, such as layoffs related to auto manufacturing plant shutdowns. The service sector gained 130,000 jobs in June, nearly three times faster than it rose in May. Employment in the manufacturing and goods-producing sectors was also strong, increasing by 24,000 and 27,000, respectively.
The numbers are encouraging -- slightly -- but way too small to have any effect on the 9.1% unemployment rate. From CNBC:
While the improvement in claims at the start of the third quarter could be hopeful sign that conditions were now in place for the economy to regain the momentum lost in the first half, the report itself does not offer a clear read of the labor market.
What we're looking at, I think, is an unemployment rate stuck in the 8% to 9% range. It's sort of like trying to start your car with a bad battery -- it always seems like it's about to catch.
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Jul '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
"It's sort of like trying to start your car with a bad battery -- it always seems like it's about to catch."
It's also when You pray the hardest and most determined.
May '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
Yes, but. The better-than-expected news is sending stocks higher and helps to fuel consumer confidence. Those with jobs will spend a little more, companies will relax a little more. It definitely matters.
Re: Sideways Jobs
True, but it's the trend line that matters. And the trend isn't great for consumer confidence. If jobs are sideways again -- if the unemployment number is still around 9% -- then we're back in double-dip territory. Personally, I think we're there now.
That's the trouble with consumer confidence: it's hard to be confident when unemployment is high and growth is anemic.
Feb '11
Re: Sideways Jobs
Rob,
When growth is anemic, unemployment isn't going to change much. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, as they say. I think it is very much an uncertainty issue. Corporate profits have been good and companies are sitting on lots of cash. They are either going to wind up investing overseas in Asia or will wait another 18 months to see how things go here. There are good opportunities, just not in the US at the moment. If Obama is re-elected, there will be a flurry of investing in Asia.
Dec '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
All anecdotal here, but my hubby is running out the clock on his 30 year engineering career by using up his vacation time right now, because he doesn't have a contract to charge. As he drives to work (yes, he's going to the office while "absent with pay"), he notices guys his age (mid 50s) out for a jog at 8 in the morning. He assumes they're unemployed. He's not alone and he's in a profession with among the lowest unemployment figures historically.
There is no reason for optimism as long as the collectivists hold power in D.C. Starting with Nancy and Harry getting their grubby hands on the purse strings in 2006 and accelerating with Obama's wild-eyed ride toward a command economy (and command society via SSM and repeal of DADT), all policies have served to inhibit, if not destroy, economic freedom and prosperity.
There is no way conditions will improve while the government is diverting capital from savings and investment to taxes and spending; while the government is destroying the value of the currency; while the government ignores massive unfunded liabilities which destroy its ability to finance further borrowing. QED.
Jul '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
Well my outlook isn't so sunny.
The real unemployment number is something around 16% and not changing much.
Dec '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
Michael Tee: Well my outlook isn't so sunny.
The real unemployment number is something around 16% and not changing much. · Jul 7 at 9:21am
Thanks for the links, Michael. What do you know about PortalSeven? I was shocked to suddenly be listening to Michelle Obama's dating advice as I was looking over the charts. Laptops need a "panic" button.
Jun '11
Re: Sideways Jobs
Michael Tee: Well my outlook isn't so sunny.
The real unemployment number is something around 16% and not changing much. · Jul 7 at 9:21am
Thank you. I was wondering if someone was going to point this out.
Oct '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
And the larger issue is the prospect of an unemployment rate that is permanently higher. "America’s new natural rate of unemployment may be more like 7 percent rather than roughly 4.5 percent." This article attributes the problem to structural changes in certain labor markets. Strangely, it doesn't mention the effects of the regulatory state; I believe other economic papers have discussed this issue.
Big government may have led us past a tipping point on the unemployment rate. As persuasive as I find find the Koch brothers' ad for economic freedom, I doubt that Americans can be led by reason on this matter.
Americans will change only when they are finally in the hands of the force that has shaped masses of humanity throughout history: disaster.
Dec '10
Re: Sideways Jobs
This is May to June and 130,000 of those jobs were Service Sector. At least some of that is the seasonal hires of kids for summer jobs. Our eldest goes out everyday and applies for what he can find, but the odds are overwhelming and I feel for him. He is not amongst those 130,000, for the entire nation.
I believe we need around 150,000 in an ordinary month, just to keep up with the population growth; May to June 157,000, during the summer hiring "boom" for teens in the service sector, is sideways.