Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
That's the big strategy question facing his campaign, according to National Journal:
The president’s advisers are stuck between pursuing two distinctly different strategies and two very different kinds of voters, each of which is crucial to his reelection. The first is an “Ohio strategy,” which means adopting an aggressively populist message to win back blue-collar voters in Rust Belt states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The second is a “Virginia strategy,” which would emphasize a more centrist message aimed at upscale white-collar professionals and college-educated suburbanites. The Virginia strategy would also appeal to voters in Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina, and would probably be bolstered by a mobilization of young voters and minority groups, who make up a significant share of the electorate in those states.
Publicly, the president’s reelection team insists it’s actively competing in every state. In reality, though, the White House will have to choose between a specific reelection message that appeals more to one demographic than the other. The administration’s decision to cater to environmentalists by postponing construction of the Keystone XL pipeline is a clear sign of the dilemma. The president decided to punt on a job stimulus measure in order to placate parts of the coalition that elected him in 2008. Environmental sensitivities took precedence over job creation.
From a purely political standpoint, I find this fascinating. It seems to me that going populist is the right choice but the fact is that Obama is just not the right guy to do that. He can't pull it off. So it's probably best for him to just be the elitist he is and go for the Virginia voters.
Two questions. Which way do you think he should go? And what does that mean for how the GOP should counter his efforts?
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
He should focus on the other 55 states...and of course our Asian territory...
Oct '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
I don't know that a centrist strategy is really going to work for him given his record. I suspect his campaign needs to look closer to the second GWB campaign which is to get his base out and that means going Ohio populist, doesn't it?
A lot of this depends on who the GOP puts up against him. If they opt for an unserious candidate like Herman Cain then things get much easier for him because they can just run a "Herman Cain. Really?" type campaign on top of a populist campaign than combating villans (Wall Street, Banks, the GOP, etc) rather than his record.
Jul '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
So, the President's advisers wouldn't consider Obama to run on his record in office? Imagine that.
May '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
If he's against Romney, he goes populist. If he's against Perry, he goes elitist. Against Gingrich or Cain he mixes up the two depending on which state he's standing in at any particular moment.
Oct '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
I'm wondering what kind of education and training National Journal "journalists" have?
"The president’s advisers are stuck between pursuing two distinctly different strategies and two very different kinds of voters, each of which is crucial to his reelection."
If each is in fact "crucial" to his reelection then his advisers wouldn't be "stuck between" deciding which strategy to pursue. They'd be pursuing BOTH...if both are crucial to his reelection. Which the writer stated they are. So which is it, writer??
Nov '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
dittoheadadt
...
If each is in fact "crucial" to his reelection then his advisers wouldn't be "stuck between" deciding which strategy to pursue. They'd be pursuing BOTH...if both are crucial to his reelection. Which the writer stated they are. So which is it, writer?? · Nov 17 at 9:41am
Good point, but it's a pretty common mistake made by writers. I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they meant that they'd pick up enough of one to supplement the majority of the others they'd pick up through their strategy (which is making an assumption of its own.)
I'd say they have to go populist for long-term strategy, elitist for short-haul. If the Republicans flip the Rust Belt and the economy improves under a new president the Democrats election chances long-haul get very dim. If the Republicans hold onto the Rust Belt and the South as a permanent majority things get very grim in electoral votes. The elitist strategy may help Obama get re-elected however, and that does seem to be his primary consideration.
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Obama is between a rock and a hard place. Only the Republican Party can save him -- and that institution is more than capable of doing the job.
Sep '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Republicans in Congress may help the Republican nominee, by sending legislation to the White House with the expectation that Obama will veto it.
Case in point: the bill, passed by the House, which provides for reciprocity among the states for holders of concealed-carry permits. I don't know the official name of the bill, but informally I expect it's called the "Hang Bob Casey Out to Dry Bill." Casey is a Democrat senator from Pennsylvania who is up for re-election next year. Pennsylvania went big for the Tea Party (Pat Toomey) in 2010; Pennsylvania blue-collar voters are well-known to the White House as "bitter, clinging to their guns...." Putting Bob Casey on record as a) opposing the bill; or b) not insisting that Harry Reid bring it to the floor, will really hurt him.
I think Obama's already committed to the Starbucks constituency--hence the Keystone XL decision, and the unapologetic showering of taxpayer money on pseudo-green "stimulus" projects. None of those green jobs include AFL-CIO membership.
He's been on the Virginia strategy for three years. The question is whether the blue collar voters in the Rust Belt have noticed.
May '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
I agree with the idea that Obama makes a pathetically unconvincing populist. Watching him try would be painfully embarrassing, if I had any empathy left for him. As it is, I hope he goes for it, for the entertainment value.
Feb '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Just cant see him winning Virginia, super red state no matter what Saboto at UVA etc. wishful thinking is. I was even tricked into voting for "fiscally conservative democrats" Warner, Webb, Kaine (I'm so sorry), that wont happen again.
May '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
And if he's against Ron Paul, he goes homo sapien.
Sep '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
There is an old joke about a small town pol accused of scandal who tries to defect it by saying of his opponent, "he's a homo sapien and he masticates"
Jul '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
He adopts the Virginia strategy but lies in Ohio and the media repeat his lies as fact and no one challenges his lies. Should anyone challenge his lies or point out his dismal record, lack of competence, crooked DOJ then Axelrod brings forth someone from Illinois to ruin their lives with smear campaigns. While some might think this heavy handed I think it is all preferable to the disappearing act Clinton detractors seemed to perfect.
The problem with the question is that saying one thing in Ohio and another in Virginia is what he will do.
The GOP needs to expose what an empty useless suit Mr Obama is regarding business and work in general while in Ohio.
The GOP need to expose his actual record, lack of bi-partisanship, and overall incompetence when in Virginia.
No matter what, if the gloves don't come off then Obama wins.
Sep '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Obama's best option seems to be the rust belt. As Henry Olson argued in National Review back in June, the GOP has trouble securing "disaffected" white blue-collar voters. The recent results in Ohio on the collective bargaining initiative seem to confirm Olson's analysis.
Dec '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Ideologically, the Union strategy appeals to the traditional Democrat electorate that expects promises of bigger government, food stamps, unemployment, etc. The Southern strategy focuses more on God, guns, and government get off my lawn. However, if the Union strategy wins only NH of the three remaining Toss-up states (i.e. Republican wins FL and IA) then the Electoral Votes are tied at 269 for each party, with the tie-breaking decision made by the GOP-held House of Representatives.
Florida decides the election.
Oct '10
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Kofola: If he's against Romney, he goes populist. If he's against Perry, he goes elitist. Against Gingrich or Cain he mixes up the two depending on which state he's standing in at any particular moment. · Nov 17 at 9:40am
Exactly.
Apr '11
Re: Should Obama Go For Ohio Or Virginia Voters?
Did you look at the states? The "Blue Collar" option involves focusing on the mid-west, which is among Romney's most popular regions. The Elitist option involved going after Nevada, which with Romney running is a relatively safe red state, but mostly after states that he's less great in (although I'm anticipating a McDonnell endorsement soon).