See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
In all, a curious week on the California Republican front.
Arnold Schwarzenegger's writing a memoir; Meg Whitman's gone the H-P way.
Not that California Democrats lack for intrigue as well.
Take Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who discovered her campaign coffers were looted to the tune of $5 million.
Conventional wisdom around California holds that Feinstein plans to run for re-election next year. Indeed, she replenished that empty checking account with $5 million of her own. She's also suing at least one bank to get her money back.
But I'm gonna go against the flow and suggest some reasons why she may take a pass:
1) DC in 2013. Odds are Republicans take over the Senate come next November. That means Feinstein would have to step down as chair of the Intelligence Committee. It also means she's on the losing end of 10-8 committee votes. And, if the new Senate is more populated with Tea Partiers, her centrist style will be out of vogue in a chamber with a DeMinty flavor. She might look at the changing landscape and decide it's not worth the hassle.
2) Age. Feinstein turns 79 next summer, so presumably this would be her final hurrah. Getting back to the first point, does she want to spend that last term getting muscled around by Republicans? Moreover, what if she couldn't finish the term? Would she want Jerry Brown or, if Brown doesn't run for a second term, a new governor -- heaven forbid, a Republican! -- to choose her successor?
3) Legacy. Should she step down next year, Feinstein gets positive reviews: she led San Francisco through its darkest days (the Milk/Moscone shooting); stood up to her party on the death penalty as a gubernatorial candidate back in 1990; blazed a moderate trail (reporters just love those moderates), etc. But an extra six years in D.C. -- especially, six ineffective years in the minority -- could tarnish the record ("she hung around too long", they might write).
But, under the category of "careful what you wish for", what would a vacated Feinstein seat mean for California Republicans?
The answer: a headache in trying to find a candidate who could win.
Consider the list of potentials: Whitman's presumably out; Carly Fiorina's working for the NRSC, also a sign of a non-candidate; Steve Poizner couldn't beat Whitman in the last gubernatorial primary; Tom Campbell, who finished behind Fiorina in the 2010 Senate primary, has twice run for the world's most deliberative body; Chuck DeVore, currently a candidate for supervisor in Orange County, finished third in the race behind Fiorina and Campbell.
All would be challenged, to put it politely, in a California Senate race. It's a combination of either too conservative, too money-strapped, or too much political baggage.
Is there an unknown Republican lurking in the shadows, ready to make a big impact? It would have to be someone with at least one or more of the three following attributes: (1) charisma/buzz/name-recognition (Schwarzenegger); (2) an eight-figure fortune to spend (Whitman/Schwarzenegger); a compelling biography (Arnold/Fiorina (female CEO/breast-cancer survivor)).
What this tells me: for the last decade, Californians have been over-reliant on short-cut politics -- like a baseball team that pins its hopes on home runs rather than on-base percentage. Bill Simon, Schwarzenegger, Whitman and Fiorina all were first-time candidates. At the same time, the GOP failed to win lower-tier statewide offices; GOP members of Congress are averse to the idea of giving up a safe seat for an uphill bid back in the Golden State. Thus the depleted GOP bench in 2012.
My question to you bright Ricocheters: how does the California GOP fix this problem?
And what exactly is the problem? Is it running the wrong candidates, running on the wrong message, or trying to run as Republicans in the wrong state?
Your thoughts . . .?
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
There's always Dan Lungren or Tom McClintock.
Jan '11
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
Doesn't California have a Marco Rubio somewhere? Remember, Marco Rubio wasn't Marco Rubio until he got involved.
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
Lungren's focused on keeping his congressional seat; McClintock too, I assume.
But here's the problem: Lungren lost to Gray Davis by 20 points, back in 1998. McClintock, historically can't break out of the mid-40s in a statewide race. And that was running in electorates with more Republicans than at present.
Both would have a hard time getting jaundiced Republican CA donors excited about their candidacies. As for help from washington, the NRSC's dance card already is pretty full, with pick-up races all around the country.
I don't enjoy being a Debbie Downer of CA Republican politics. I think the real challenge is what KC Mulville asked: oh Rubio, Rubio, where art thou?
Edited on September 23, 2011 at 10:18pmRe: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
If Feinstein were not to run, who would the Democrats run in her place? Gavin Newsom would surely be tempted, but I don't know if he'd be willing to ditch his lieutenant governorship.
Even if Feinstein doesn't step down, she's weak in the polls, and considering Obama and the Democrats' unpopularity, the Republicans would be foolish not to give 2012 a go. My pick would probably be Fiorina again --her name rec. is up and she now has one campaign under her belt -- but it just doesn't look like she's up for round two.
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
That Senate race was a very bruising affair for Carly, as was Whitman's guv run (one reason why her H-P move probably seemed all the more attractive -- fewer personal insults to endure, even with a company that has a lot of problems). I'd be suprised if either ran again.
The list is long of Democrats who'd seriously consider filling the DiFi void. That would include Newsom, Kamala Harris, Jackie Speier. And a couple of wildcards: Antonio Villaraigosa and Steve Westley.
My guess is Newsom would do it. He has good name recognition courtesy of Prop 8. He offered a jobs plan earlier this year, he's quietly hired D.C.-based political consultants.
Only complication: Jerry Brown and 2014. Again, if I'm Newsom, I assume Brown goes for a second term and gets it (habitual candidates like Brown leave office only way -- feet first, on a shield). That would enable Newsom to serve a full term, then go for governor in 2018. Or he waits and goes for Boxer's seat in 2016 if she opts against (kills me to write this) a fifth term.
Hey, maybe Mickey Kaus can change party affiliations!!
Edited on September 23, 2011 at 10:53pmMay '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
I'm growing increasingly cynical about the possibility that California could/would ever elect a common-sense conservative. It's what comes of having an electorate educated in the worst school system in the nation. The electorate is too dumb to pour sand out of a boot with the instructions written on the heel.
Dec '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
I nominate Hugh Hewitt, even if he is an OSU fan.
Jun '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
Rob Long? Peter Robinson? Troy Senik?
Feb '11
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
79? Have we reached the point where they only way a politician will leave office is to die?
Oct '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
Bill Whalen:Is there an unknown Republican lurking in the shadows, ready to make a big impact? It would have to be someone with at least one or more of the three following attributes: (1) charisma/buzz/name-recognition (Schwarzenegger); (2) an eight-figure fortune to spend (Whitman/Schwarzenegger); a compelling biography (Arnold/Fiorina (female CEO/breast-cancer survivor)).
And what exactly is the problem? Is it running the wrong candidates, running on the wrong message, or trying to run as Republicans in the wrong state?
Your thoughts . . .? ยท
Adam Carolla should run as an Independent and all republicans should support him. But seriously, the GOP just fielded two highly qualified and reasonable conservatives to run against the awful Boxer and retread Brown. One candidate lost momentum because of racial politics and the other never had a chance. California is the only state where the Tea Party wave in 2010 was non-existent. It used to vote republican candidates for president. Now, it's irredeemably blue.
Edited on September 24, 2011 at 7:07amFeb '11
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
The brain dead voters here in Ca. just are not smart enough to figure out how mch they have destroyed the "Once fine State of California", to vote for anybody but a Democrat. Kind of what one would expect from a very heavy union based, State employed, worker electorate, unwilling to give up their fallacious benefit packages. Kind of like all government unions, which would prefer to see the financial destruction of the State/Country before addressing the reason why!
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
Tom McClintock -- a man whom I greatly admire -- is superlative on state issues. I, for one, wish he had run for governor in 2010 instead of pursuing the path he has in the House. I certainly wouldn't mind him in the Senate, but would love to see him in Sacramento someday.
An interesting piece of scuttlebutt: Michael Reagan confirmed recently that he's thinking about getting into the senate race.
Oct '10
Re: See DiFi Run -- But Is She Running?
kausmickey Opening in L.A. politics for leader who can mobilize striving Latino parents against entrenched teachers' union tinyurl.com/5wyxr6x