Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Mollie Hemingway, Ed. ·
March 14, 2012 at 3:55am
Well, no one was more surprised than Rick Santorum to learn he'd won Mississippi. He was on stage giving a victory speech for his win in Alabama.
It was all very close. CNN is reporting that Santorum has 35% to Gingrich's 30% and Romney's 28% in Alabama. (79% reporting)
CNN reports that Santorum has 33% to Gingrich's 31% and Romney's 30% in Mississippi (with 96% reporting).
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
What's not close is the Romney and not-Romney vote. It worries me for the general, if Romney is the nominee.
Dec '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Watching Newt right now, conceding MS and AL to Santorum.
And as he points out, between himself and Santorum, they got almost 70 percent of the vote in each of the two states.
I think it is time for Newt to roll up his campaign, but he says he's taking the delegates he won tonight all the way to Tampa.
If he can't show that he can win someplace outside the South, given that he hasn't won consistently across the South, he should declare a moral victory, withdraw, and (ideally) endorse Santorum.
Mar '12
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
The exit polling shows that the races in MS and AL had electorates that were 80% evangelical. These voters will turn out for Romney in the general against Obama, they just would rather cast their vote for someone more theologically palatable given the opportunity. Santorum doesn't win any votes that won't come home to Romney in the general.
Mar '12
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
It might have been interesting to wait until the morning when the Hawaii results came in. Your headline then could have been: Santorum takes two out of three states, Romney wins most delegates. Again.
That's probably the take away people should be getting. There is nothing surprising, after all, about Santorum doing well among evangelical voters.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Stuart Creque: Watching Newt right now, conceding MS and AL to Santorum.
And as he points out, between himself and Santorum, they got almost 70 percent of the vote in each of the two states.
I think it is time for Newt to roll up his campaign, but he says he's taking the delegates he won tonight all the way to Tampa.
If he can't show that he can win someplace outside the South, given that he hasn't won consistently across the South, he should declare a moral victory, withdraw, and (ideally) endorse Santorum. · 12 minutes ago
That would be nice, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen. I also agree with Horace that these Not-Romney voters will come home in the general.
Oct '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
The March primaries favor Santorum. The April ones favor Romney. So I assume Santorum has a few weeks to gather momentum, funding, and to improve his campaign organization, if he is to have a shot at the nomination.
Jun '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
For Evangelicals, the reputation of Catholics in general may have gone up a notch recently, now that the bishops have gone to war with the Obama Administration. "They can't be all bad, if Obama is trying to screw them over."
Sep '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
It's time for Newt to call it quits.
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Just out of curiosity, what was the rationale for the GOP primary election rules change, and is there any substance to the claims that the rules were changed (for example, from "winner take all" to "proportional representation") in order to make a brokered convention more likely? Because this looks like it could just smolder on into June and July, and we won't have a GOP challenger picked until August... What is the upside of such an outcome, and what is the downside?
Nov '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Romney did better than he should have done in Mississippi and Alabama, considering he completely ignored the two places until about a week ago. He should have done better with the northern Mississippi portion that is essentially a suburb of Memphis. Romney should be doing better with the Great Plains states, but he isn't.
Romney did win several counties in western Mississippi that historically vote for Democrats.
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Horace: It might have been interesting to wait until the morning when the Hawaii results came in. Your headline then could have been: Santorum takes two out of three states, Romney wins most delegates. Again.
That's probably the take away people should be getting. There is nothing surprising, after all, about Santorum doing well among evangelical voters. · 30 minutes ago
I think it's significant that Santorum won here, for a variety of reasons, but this doesn't change the overall direction of the race much.
Dec '10
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
billy
That would be nice, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen. I also agree with Horace that these Not-Romney voters will come home in the general.
Do not underestimate Romney's potential to alienate those voters during the general election as he "swings to the center." One might have reasonably expected John McCain to win all those not-McCain voters in the fall, but evidently he came up short somewhere.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
If Gingrich hadn't been in the race, the vote totals wouldn't be terribly strange. Going by the secondary choice that Gingrich voters have been giving in polls lately, and allowing for a handful of them to stay at home, Santorum still wouldn't have got 50%. Romney's numbers were much, much better here amongst the evangelicals than they have been anywhere else, which I take to be a pretty good sign for the general.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Horace
These voters will turn out for Romney in the general against Obama, they just would rather cast their vote for someone more theologically palatable given the opportunity. Santorum doesn't win any votes that won't come home to Romney in the general.
Wouldn't we also say that Romney doesn't win any votes that won't come home to Santorum in the general? Establishment Republicans will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. The conservative wing is a lot more fickle. And you need the conservative wing to win.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Stuart Creque
billy
That would be nice, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen. I also agree with Horace that these Not-Romney voters will come home in the general.
Do not underestimate Romney's potential to alienate those voters during the general election as he "swings to the center." One might have reasonably expected John McCain to win all those not-McCain voters in the fall, but evidently he came up short somewhere. · 6 minutes ago
There's a big difference between '08 and '12: We all know first hand just how bad Obama can be.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Stuart Creque
billy
That would be nice, but I'm afraid it's not going to happen. I also agree with Horace that these Not-Romney voters will come home in the general.
Do not underestimate Romney's potential to alienate those voters during the general election as he "swings to the center." One might have reasonably expected John McCain to win all those not-McCain voters in the fall, but evidently he came up short somewhere. · 5 minutes ago
In Mississippi and Alabama it wasn't close, and evangelicals turned out for McCain just fine. You can argue that it was just because of Palin, but the gap was pretty large down there; unless it's a wipe-out, there shouldn't be a real concern.
If Romney were losing by huge numbers in swing states, that'd be more of a problem. So far as I know, Colorado and Iowa are the only swing states Mitt's lost, and he didn't do terribly in either.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
DrewInWisconsin
Horace
These voters will turn out for Romney in the general against Obama, they just would rather cast their vote for someone more theologically palatable given the opportunity. Santorum doesn't win any votes that won't come home to Romney in the general.
Wouldn't we also say that Romney doesn't win any votes that won't come home to Santorum in the general? Establishment Republicans will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. The conservative wing is a lot more fickle. And you need the conservative wing to win. · 4 minutes ago
You'd be surprised at the number of idiots in the establishment. I've had conversations with Mitt voting relatively senior party people who were diverting funding from the party to issue lobbying, in part because they were grumpy about the party being captured by "religious nuts". Deeply depressing, although I hold out hope that they're too stupid to achieve much harm. We need both wings, and volunteering from both wings, in both cash and time.
Mar '12
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Whats significant? That he discredited Gingrichs viability? That wasn't a question anymore, was it? After Tennessee, it was obvious Gingrich no longer had much juice in the South. Santorum having done well with predominantly evangelical electorates since Iowa, does this result really surprise anyone? What tonight shows is that even on his best nights, when the cards are all stacked in his favor, Santorum can't make a dent in the delegate count. What's more, the demographics of the remaining states with the exception of some great plains states, Louisiana, and Pennsylvania, are all favorable to Romney. Santorum's best states, for the most part, are already behind him, Romney's are just coming up. So, sure, if Gingrich drops out, the race will be a more clear reading on whom the party prefers, but given what is left, it doesn't seem at all likely that Gingrich dropping out will matter in the slightest. Emphasizing the significance of Santorums moral victories doesn't seem to be really looking at what's happening very objectively.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
Stuart Creque: Watching Newt right now, conceding MS and AL to Santorum.
And as he points out, between himself and Santorum, they got almost 70 percent of the vote in each of the two states.
I think it is time for Newt to roll up his campaign, but he says he's taking the delegates he won tonight all the way to Tampa.
If he can't show that he can win someplace outside the South, given that he hasn't won consistently across the South, he should declare a moral victory, withdraw, and (ideally) endorse Santorum. · 1 hour ago
I agree that, aside from the moral victory bit, this would be the morally correct thing for Newt to do. Not sure that's a terribly strong incentive, though.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins The South Tonight
I don't remember the rule changes being heavily debated, but I wasn't paying a lot of attention. The general feeling, I think, was that the party wasn't well-served by the 2008 early/Super Tuesday results. A tangential article.