Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
From the New York Times:
WICHITA, Kan. — Rick Santorum strengthened his case as the candidate for most conservative voters, by decisively winning the Kansas caucuses on Saturday...
But the victory comes with an asterisk: his rivals, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, largely bypassed the state, focusing on the greater stakes in Alabama and Mississippi, which hold primaries on Tuesday.
Still, Mr. Santorum extended his winning streak of Midwestern and Southern states with the help of evangelical Christians and other voters calling themselves “very conservative,” a streak that began in Iowa and included Tennessee and Oklahoma on Super Tuesday. He is expected to garner many of Kansas’s 40 delegates. But other candidates may also claim some, including Mr. Romney, who may end up faring well in Kansas City and its suburbs, the more socially moderate parts of the state.
Romney had 431 delegates going into today, and added to his total by winning delegates in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. The Virgin Islands and Wyoming will finish caucusing today, which should also help Romney.
Santorum is also fighting that delegates awarded in winner-take-all primaries in Florida and Arizona be allocated based on the rules established by the Republican National Committee.
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May '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Yeah, well Mitt's winning all the cool places. The National Review cruise rarely swings by Kansas.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Santorum Wins Kansas Caucus In Landslide
Does this mean I won't be needing this?
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
If Kansas is a "landslide", it only seems fair to note that Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands were 87% and unanimous, for 18/0/0/0 delegates.
Now that Dickinson, the last county of size to have not reported has reported just this minute, we can be fairly confident that the elected delegates in Kansas are being awarded 33/7/0/0. Mitt won no Congressional Districts, but he cleared the 20% hurdle with 20.9%, meaning that the At Large delegates are shared between Mitt and Rick proportionally. Who won bigger today depends on the results from the Virgin Islands.
Edit: I should be clear that if they went 50/50/0/0 today, that's equal in absolute terms, but good news for Romney, who can afford to do much worse than that, bad news for Santorum, who needs to do much better, and would be terrible news for Newt and Paul if they were trying to win the nomination.
Edited on March 11, 2012 at 1:43amApr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Using Nate Silver's projection for the rest of the race: The baseline case has Romney winning even before counting superdelegates. Assuming Romney gets at least one delegate each in the VI and in Samoa tomorrow, and more than one in one of those (or, I guess more than two from one and a wipe-out in the other), Romney is doing better than he needs to cruise home. Since the Guam and Northern Mariana Island superdelegates are bound by their funny rules, Mitt got a further bonus 6 delegates over Nate's estimate, sorta.
The funny math is because Nate packages the territorial caucuses today and on Tuesday into one, with Mitt's Kansas + Territorial delegate count coming to 21 in the prediction, 19 + Virgin results + Samoa results + 6 supers in reality. Good night for Mitt. Santorum in this model gets 28 delegates, while in reality he got 30 + Virgin + Samoa.
For Santorum to come into the lead, you want Silver's Santorum +10%, Mitt -10% case. For that, Santorum needs Romney down to 9 delegates, himself at 39. The Romney destruction is impossible, the positive goal implausible, despite the total lack of Paul or Newt delegates so far.
Jun '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
The disappointment in Romney even spans time and space:
Hitler FInds Out Romney Strapped His Dog to the Car Roof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIDPtL5qT9A
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Unless I'm missing something, this weekend Santorum will get the "landslide" headlines, and Mitt will take home more delegates. Say what you will about Mitt, but the man has an attention to detail.
Dec '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
The question is: What's the matter with Kansas?
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
The Virgin Islands results are in! Seven to Mitt, one Paul, one "uncommitted". Not counting Wyoming, Newt got zero, Paul got one (Virgin), Mitt got 25 islanders + 7 Kansans = 32 delegates, Santorum got 33 Kansans.
Santorum takes home 1 more delegate than Mitt. I suspect, from watching the VI caucus video, that the "uncommitted" guy was the guy who [edit: I was wrong, it was this woman, who I did not see speak. No idea about her presidential politics, although she wants more VI autonomy].
Wyoming may change tonight's results. I'm not waiting up for it, though. For the moment, though, it's a marginal Santorum victory in pure numbers, a big Romney victory given the results Santorum needs to be getting; in order to win the large majorities of delegates he needs, Santorum can't get by on easy races, but will have to win unfavorable ones. If he'd attended the Virgin Islands caucus, he'd be doing better now.
Edited on March 11, 2012 at 2:42amMay '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Kansas saw a video like this and was impressed with an authentic and articulate conservative and chose not to buy the 'electability' spin.
Jun '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
etoiledunord: The disappointment in Romney even spans time and space:
Hitler FInds Out Romney Strapped His Dog to the Car Roof
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIDPtL5qT9A · 44 minutes ago
This may be the one hundredth time I've seen this clip used on one hundred different subjects. It's great every time. It's the only good thing inspired by Hitler.
Question: Am I the only one who would like to see the caucus system for presidential contests abolished? I can see some merit in them on more local races, but it doesn't make sense to me on broader contests. I'm all for closed primaries, and logical arguments can be made on both sides on the proportional/winner-take-all issue, but I just don't get caucuses.
Edited on March 11, 2012 at 2:18amApr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
It does feel awful supporting a candidate who lost Kansas. Kansas probably does more to make me feel proud of my party than any other state. Sam Brownback and Pat Roberts were the best Free Traders in the senate until Brownback became governor, and are fine, upstanding Americans, as is new Senator Jerry Moran. They're not loud, dramatic people, but quiet achievers.
Charles Curtis reminds us that America was color-blind enough to elect a dark skinned man in 1928, a man with serious history of overcoming hardship, to office, and that the party had the confidence in America's decency to nominate him. That decision ratified its decision in 1925 to make him the first Senate Majority Leader, which would have been an electoral mistake if Americans had been more racially prejudiced.
There's the GOP's role in Bleeding Kansas, the great achievements of General (albeit not President) Eisenhower, the solid list of conservative Kansan representatives, the Kochs, Gunsmoke (although Dodge was one of Romney's better towns), Bob Gates, Ron Wyden (conditioned by Kansas to be the most constructive Senate Democrat).... What a wonderful state!
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
tabula rasa
etoiledunord:
Hitler FInds Out Romney Strapped His Dog to the Car Roof
This may be the one hundredth time I've seen this clip used on one hundred different subjects. It's great every time. It's the only good thing inspired by Hitler.
Question: Am I the only one who would like to see the caucus system for presidential contests abolished? I can see some merit in them on more local races, but it doesn't make sense to me on broader contests. I'm all for closed primaries, and logical arguments can be made on both sides on the proportional/winner-take-all issue, but I just don't get caucuses. ·
A well run caucus is a beautiful, wonderful, thing, binding a community, informing voters, building civic virtue. Primary voting does very little good aside from reaching a result. In the general, the result is the important thing, so caucuses would be nuts, but the primaries are about getting together to achieve things, and the process can be as important as the result.
Primaries and caucuses demand different skills, and it's worth testing for both. Lastly, the impenetrable patchwork system makes federalism visible, teaching civics.
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Speaking of Wyden, here's hoping he stays a democrat. The man might prove to be the country's most consequential senator in 2013, but his taking of Ryan's hand will lose all significance without that "D, Kansas" label.
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
According to a link at Drudge, Wyoming gives 7 to Mitt, 3 to Rick, making the weekend haul 39 for Romney, 36 for Santorum (with trust in James's numbers above). The fact that this qualifies as a good weekend for Santorum tells us all we need to know about the state of this race.
Nov '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
I'm from the South. Until the University of Kansas changes its name from Jayhawks, I refuse to have any use for anything in that state.
Oct '11
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
How many people participated in the Kansas caucuses? 16,000-18,000, tops? Santorum needs to be able to win in states where people actually turn up... Sure Caucuses are important, and they're one of the things that helped put Obama over Clinton. But you have to remember that Obama and Clinton were neck and neck even with Obama cleaning up the caucuses. In the end what gave Obama the nomination was the superdelegates, and the DNC changing the rules ex post facto to give Michigan delegates to Obama when he hadn't even been on the ballot. Santorum and Romney are not running neck and neck. Santorum can't win with caucuses.
Aug '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
James Of England
Paul got one (Virgin)
Figures.
Feb '12
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
If it makes makes you feel better, do note that the Jayhawks did get knocked out of the tournament last night while the Mizzou Tigers remain. :D
May '10
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
Repeat after me: Vice President Santorum.
Feb '12
Re: Santorum Wins Kansas Caucuses In Landslide
I'm one of the Kansan Ricocheters, but I have to confess I didn't caucus today.
Reason 1) Frankly, I'm not all that wild about any of our candidates. I'll vote for whoever wins the nomination (and I may even volunteer for a campaign to help get a better job), but right now Romney and Santorum feel like six of one, half dozen of the other. They are both good men who have many good points but flaws as well.
Reason 2) Caucuses on Saturdays may be great for people who have normal jobs, but not for people who work retail. Working from 11-4:30 makes attending an open-ended meeting on a Saturday morning pretty much impossible.