Santorum Leads In Michigan
Public Policy Polling reports that Rick Santorum has taken a large lead in Michigan ahead of that state's open Republican primary. He's at 39% to Romney's 24%. Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Gingrich's support is way down -- he's at 11%.
"Santorum's rise is attributable to two major factors: his own personal popularity (a stellar 67/23 favorability) and GOP voters increasingly souring on Gingrich. Santorum's becoming something closer and closer to a consensus conservative candidate as Gingrich bleeds support."
Santorum's support is strong with those who identify with the Tea Party, evangelicals, and the "very conservative."
"Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. Santorum is winning by a healthy margin in every region of the state except for Oakland County, where Romney has a 40-26 advantage, and the area around Lansing where Paul actually has an advantage at 30% to 27% for both Romney and Santorum."
The poll shows that voters are souring on Gingrich and only 38% have a favorable opinion of him while 47% don't. And they say negative campaigning doesn't work! His presence in the race helps Romney since most of his supporters would go to Santorum if he dropped out. In fact, Santorum's lead would jump to 21% if Gingrich left the race.
"Michigan is perceived as a state where Romney really has a home field advantage, but only 26% of primary voters actually consider him to be a Michigander while 62% do not. Only 39% have a favorable opinion of George Romney with a 46% plurality having no opinion about him. Romney really doesn't have some great reservoir of goodwill in Michigan to fall back on. Only 49% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 39% with a negative one. That's down a net 28 points from our last poll of Michigan in July when he was at +38 (61/23).
"For all that, Santorum probably shouldn't get too comfortable. There is a lot of potential for fluidity in the Michigan race, with only 47% of voters saying they're strongly committed to their candidate while 53% are open to changing their minds in the next two weeks."
Good point. Gingrich was up in Florida after he won South Carolina, too.
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Feb '12
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
I don't trust PPP's numbers. They also have Santorum leading nationally by 15 points, while Gallup in a rolling average poll still has Romney ahead.
Edited on February 13, 2012 at 5:18pmRe: Santorum Leads In Michigan
MJMack: I don't trust PPP's numbers. They also have Santorum leading nationally by 15 points, while Gallup in a rolling average poll still has Romney ahead. · 5 minutes ago
Edited 4 minutes ago
That may be but we should remember that PPP came closest to predicting how well Santorum would perform in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. They didn't capture how high his support was, but they were singled out for capturing his rise.
Nov '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
I don't trust PPP much either. ARG has Santorum up in Michigan by 6, though.
Feb '12
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
Polling for caucuses is notoriously inaccurate due to the nature of how caucuses work. Also, you'll note that this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters. Yes, Michigan is an open primary, but the only way that considering everyone in the state as a potential voter helps Santorum, would be if Democrats in a blue state like Michigan are looking to stack the deck for Santorum, seeing him as easier to defeat in the general. Otherwise, this being an open primary should make Romney the favorite, or at least much more competitive than this poll indicates. This poll is garbage IMO.
Nov '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
"Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points.
I wouldn't have guessed that, and would love to know why it is -- are these people who might vote R in Nov. who like Santorum better than Romney, or are they voting for the Republican they think would be easiest to defeat?
Sep '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
"Santorum's benefiting from the open nature of Michigan's primary as well. He's only up by 12 points with actual Republican voters, but he has a 40-21 advantage with the Democrats and independents planning to vote that pushes his overall lead up to 15 points. "
I don't understand why the GOP allows this.
I don't know how anyone can take results of these primaries seriously - or take the results to actually be reflective of potential Republican voters at large. Ron Paul can run as a Republican, but where open primaries are concerned, his presence distorts the numbers.
When Democrats can vote, the GOP opens itself up to manipulation - Democrats are well-organized and will actively work to distort results to cause maximum damage.
Given that this is structured as it is; Iowa, New Hamphire etc. , anyone can say anything and no one can adequately dispute it. However the LOUD voices will prevail in such a environment. And by loud I mean mainstream media, with some deference to right-leaning pundits who make pronouncements in the mainstream - and this includes Fox.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
I don't know, Franco, I enjoy having an open primary. I would never register with any particular political party, being rather independent-minded. But I also think that there's nothing wrong with me, a citizen, determining my preferred candidate from the party I'll never vote for.
I'll want to ensure the least-worst option should the Democrats actually win.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
By the way, if it's true that Santorum has that big of an advantage among Democrats and Independents, then doesn't that mean that a Santorum nomination would capture the overly-valued "middle"?
Dec '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
OK, even though you guys have seen my horse race video before, I'm gonna try one more time.
It's about a horse that the insiders hate! The people love this horse. The horse starts out losing every race. Then the horse comes on through good training and handling and starts winning.
In the big Agua Caliente race the horse has been weighed down and there is a bad start. The horse starts 10 yards behind the last horse, behind the entire field!
THE HORSE PASSES THE ENTIRE FIELD ON THE OUTSIDE AND WINS THE RACE! HE BECOMES THE GREATEST RACE HORSE OF ALL TIME!!
I'm gonna dream,
Jim
Feb '12
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
No, it means that Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of running against Santorum, because they believe (probably correctly) that he would get crushed in the general.
May '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
MJMack
No, it means that Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of running against Santorum, because they believe (probably correctly) that he would get crushed in the general. · 44 minutes ago
That is subject to interpretation. Drew's interpretation is just as plausible. I'm not denying one or the other, but I don't buy the narrative that Santorum is just unelectable.
Moreover, who is more likely to go out and actually vote in the Republican primaries-- Republicans, or wishy-washy independents?
Jul '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
MJMack
No, it means that Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of running against Santorum, because they believe (probably correctly) that he would get crushed in the general.
I think it has more to do with sticking it to the perceived favorite.
This should be really interesting. Paul is up in the Lansing area home to state government and Michigan State Univ, he would be their natural "hose the GOP candidate."
I'm really curious to see if Dem/indie support swings to either Paul or Santorum or remains split.
A little background: in 2000 three term Republican Gov. John Engler publicly claimed that he would deliver MI to GWB, saying it would act as a "firewall" against the McCain insurgency.
Labor came out in droves to give Engler a black eye and McCain won the state, a feat he was conspicuously unable to repeat in 2008 when he was the favorite.
Like Franco, it drives me bonkers that we allow this junk.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
James Gawron: OK, even though you guys have seen my horse race video before, I'm gonna try one more time.
It's about a horse that the insiders hate! The people love this horse. The horse starts out losing every race. Then the horse comes on through good training and handling and starts winning.
In the big Agua Caliente race the horse has been weighed down and there is a bad start. The horse starts 10 yards behind the last horse, behind the entire field!
THE HORSE PASSES THE ENTIRE FIELD ON THE OUTSIDE AND WINS THE RACE! HE BECOMES THE GREATEST RACE HORSE OF ALL TIME!!
I'm gonna dream,
Jim · 1 hour ago
Only to loose his second race? Santorum needs to beat Obama. He may well beat Romney, but that is no certainty he will beat the O. There is no guarantee Mitt beats the O either. I wan't the guy that has the best chance to beat the O. I like Mitt and Santorum...I don't know who has the best chance to beat the O yet...I'm leaning Mitt...
Sep '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
He'll capture the moderates until they learn about what he does with life-sized dolls. A $73M ad buy is on it's way with graphics, charts and reenactments, courtesy of the PAC, A Group Totally Unaffiliated With Or Controlled By Mitt Romney.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
K T Cat
He'll capture the moderates until they learn about what he does with life-sized dolls. A $73M ad buy is on it's way with graphics, charts and reenactments, courtesy of the PAC, A Group Totally Unaffiliated With Or Controlled By Mitt Romney. · 1 minute ago
Oh, Mitt already has his smear-merchants working on Santorum.
Check this out: (and yes, it pains me to link to the Daily Kos.)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/02/11/1063952/-The-Romney-Campaign-s-Manipulation-of-Quotes-is-Appalling
May '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
From the Daily Kos piece, so you don't have to go to it:
Here's the quote in question by Santorum that is being circulated by the Romney team:
“There’s not a management problem in Washington, D.C., all right?”
Out of context, this appears to be a potentially-damaging statement that goes against what the American people believe. According to Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul, the statement demonstrates that “Rick Santorum says that there is not a problem with the way the federal government is being led. That is ridiculous and again proves why conservatives can’t trust a Washington insider to fix the problems that Washington insiders created.”
Now, here's the complete statement by Santorum:
"There’s not a management problem in Washington, all right. There’s a more foundational problem there that goes to the basic concepts of who we are as a people. And those are deeply moral questions."
...
May '10
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
...Santorum wasn't being a "Washington Insider" as the Romney team claims by saying this. He was pointing to the root cause of the problems with Washington, that it's the moral and humanistic qualities of the people in Washington currently that are causing the real problems with the country.
Romney's team would have us believe that Rick Santorum was defending his DC cronies, when in reality he was indicting them for having ineffective moral compasses. The fact that Romney's team would attempt to manipulate a statement like this to earn votes is appalling. To what lengths would he go as President to change perception through spin doctoring?
The real question this brings up is this: How stupid does Mitt Romney think the American people are?
To which I add, Santorum is 100% right on in the full quote! This is what we conservatives have been longing for-- someone who will not just "manage better" but actually address the deep, long-running root problems we face as a country.
And Romney's team is trying to turn this into a negative? They really are desperate.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.
That may be but we should remember that PPP came closest to predicting how well Santorum would perform in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. They didn't capture how high his support was, but they were singled out for capturing his rise. ·
When PPP polls are the only polls published in the cycle, they are the best polls, I'll give them that. ;-) It's not a meaningful compliment, though; it's not like they were close to being correct, either on Tuesday's primary or caucuses. The rest of the time, PPP is known for having more "interesting" results far from the election, then better ones closer to. This time, good final results in NV, varying quality elsewhere.
In general, Mollie reports the "interesting" ones, which are not the most valuable, but here I think they're probably about right, in line with expectations. Newt would be pasted, but Santorum is local, folksy, and union friendly. Unions have been hammering away at Mitt, and in Michigan, that counts.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
Thanks. I'm still having link-embed problems.
And no, I'm not a Mitt Romney fan -- I think I've made that clear -- but it's almost shocking how fundamentally dishonest he's been during this campaign. If this were the first time he's played "chop-quote" in an attempt to smear his opponents, then maybe we could pass it off as the work of an amateur campaign organization, but this sort of chop-quoting is how he repeatedly smeared Gingrich, and is a regular feature with the Romney campaign.
Which makes me wonder what people mean when they say that Romney has a stellar campaign organization. Is it organized on the same model as the mafia?
Re: Santorum Leads In Michigan
MJMack: I don't trust PPP's numbers. They also have Santorum leading nationally by 15 points, while Gallup in a rolling average poll still has Romney ahead. · 3 hours ago
Edited 3 hours ago
Gallup's rolling average does still have Romney ahead, but his lead has shrunk to two points.