There's good news and bad news for Rick Santorum. First, the good news:
Gallup's daily tracking poll shows Rick Santorum continuing to gain momentum among national Republican voters, with the former senator now holding an 8 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.
Santorum earned the support of 36 percent of voters, up one percent from Saturday. Romney fell by one percent to 28 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and Rep. Ron Paul (Texas) held steady at 13 percent and 11 percent respectively.
I'm not sure this is bad news, from Michigan, but Santorum's lead over Romney is getting smaller:
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
Maybe Romney knew what he was talking about when he said there was no chance he'd lose Michigan.
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Comments :
Mar '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
I'm feeling a bit like James Lilek's masterful monologue towards the end of the last Podcast.
This is all rather depressing - I need to get some Sun.
Oct '10
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
Now 7 days a week!
Dec '10
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
Mollie,
I live in Florida. I can tell you the Romney campaign was maximally negative and spent an ungdly amount of money. What do you say we stop reporting the damage done be this rotten machine and start reporting the rotten machine!!!
Regards,
Jim
Feb '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
I live in Michigan.
I happened to hear a few Romney radio ads against Santorum. They are extremely negative as well as misleading.
They certainly haven't made me think any better of Romney, and they won't make me vote for him either.
Edited on Feb 20 at 11:24amRe: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
No chance of losing Michigan? I wonder. I would not bet either way (not my own money, anyway).
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
I was very surprised when he said that, too. When you talked about Romney losing Michigan as being decisive, due to it being his birthplace, I challenged you. None of the five candidates in the race at the time of their birth state contest have won or are likely to (Paul isn't even likely to win his state of office). You responded that expectations are higher for Mitt. I thought, but did not say, that it was silly to predict that so far out, as if Santorum's numbers were still ahead by Tuesday, expectations would be lower for Mitt; the expectations were that it would be a relatively easy contest against Newt.
Then Mitt came out with that line. I thought at the time, and am now reminded, that I should doff my cap to you, professor, for a claim that was wiser than I appreciated.
Aug '10
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
I think Mitt was simply saying that he would fight - do whatever is necessary - to make sure he didn't lose.
Again, a sentiment perhaps not expressed in the most eloquent manner possible but not a statement of arrogance either.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
You missed out the other big news for Santorum, btw. He's almost tied in Arizona, too. PPP, I know, but since MI was PPP, too, I figured it was worth noting. On current momentum, they'll swap state victory expectations before the election.
Oct '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
We'll see what happens. If Mitt wins in Michigan, I can't wait to hear how it's spun by those who claimed, "if Mitt loses Michigan, it's all over!" I'm guessing "yeah, well, he didn't win with a big enough margin" will be most popular. If Mitt loses, I don't think it's over. It might (probably will) damage him, but there's still Super Tuesday.
Aug '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
If Mitt wins Michigan is it all over?
Aug '10
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
DrewInWisconsin
If Mitt wins Michigan is it all over? · 42 minutes ago
No. Even if Mitt wins MI and AZ he still needs to do well on Super Tuesday. I'm not sure that Mitt can wrap this thing up before April unless Santorum self destructs somehow.
Apr '11
Re: Santorum Gains Nationally, Romney Makes Up Ground In Michigan
Frozen Chosen
DrewInWisconsin
If Mitt wins Michigan is it all over? · 42 minutes ago
No. Even if Mitt wins MI and AZ he still needs to do well on Super Tuesday. I'm not sure that Mitt can wrap this thing up before April unless Santorum self destructs somehow. · 5 hours ago
I think this is true; MI/AZ don't change Super Tuesday much. Still doesn't have to win a second southern state, or Ohio. Still has to win most of the rest. No way Santorum drops out before Pennsylvania/ New York on April 24. If Santorum wins Pennsylvania-bordering New York, that would be a problem for Mitt.