Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I've published Salim Mansur here on Ricochet before, and I always find his writing thoughtful. Salim yesterday sent me a letter about Newt Gingrich. Seeing in it some ideas (not all) that mirror my own confused thoughts about Newt, I asked him if I might publish it. He kindly consented, adding that he would welcome Ricochet's comments.
What are Ricochet's thoughts?
SALIM MANSUR: A View From The Moose Country Up North
On balance I am not persuaded by all the negatives dumped on Newt from folks such as the editors of the NRO. A couple of days before the SC vote Rush Limbaugh read a letter he received from one of his listeners. I paraphrase. The letter-writer spoke about Newt as an officer in an army in which the entire generation of Americans who are Newt's contemporaries came of age were privates. The letter-writer wrote that they, as Newt, did what they were asked to do. They smoked pot, engaged in pre-marital sex, cheered on anyone and anything that broke taboos of the earlier generation, got divorced, abandoned children or raised them in mixed families, practiced open marriage and, like Newt, now carry multiple wounds of that army of the "me" generation. So Newt knows all of this, has not hidden any of it, his life is an open documentary of that generation which screwed up everything that America at one time stood for.
And so now when correctives in spades are needed just to save America from keeling over as that Italian cruise liner, Newt knows what needs to be done. He has been in the boiler room. He has filth all over him. But he knows where the leaks are and how to plug them. And Newt will now do this even as he exasperates the people watching him, drive them crazy with the things he says, for now he knows how serious the situation is and he wants to save the cruise liner SS America for the future of his children and grandchildren as of all Americans is at stake.
Mitt has no clue of what happens in the boiler room. He is the clean white collar wonderfully cultivated man that once we knew as people who wore grey flannel suits. Times call for desperate actions from men who can dive into the boiler room and plug the leaks, and such is the present. This is why I have been talking about Newt. This is why the clean-collar folks in the MSM roundtables have such disdain for Newt. But not the women who have seen their husbands screw around, or who have also gone out to have good time of their own, for they roundly rejected Marianne's sob story. Such a story would make sense another time when the cruise liner would be on auto-pilot, the sky above cloudless and beautiful, and the sailing so serene that one would demand the captain on the ship be seen to be as clean and wonderful as Rock Hudson or Jimmy Stewart. Newt is our generation's Humphrey Bogart in the "African Queen."
This is why I am also reminded about Churchill, a man held in contempt by the clean-collar folks of his time till the cruise liner got sinking. And Churchill was the man of the hour, of the century, for he knew how to roar and rally the folks to "Keep Buggering On" as he famously said soon after he was appointed the PM. Here is another interesting point. Churchill was a historian, the sort of historian academic historians may hold in disdain, but the people instead love to buy their books and learn from those who bring history alive as a lived experience for the readers. Churchill made his living, or rather the bills required to pay for his habits, by writing his popular history books and they are damned good for I have read quite a few volumes. So when the time drew near for Britain to avert a bigger defeat since the Spanish armada, it was Churchill who was most prepared and understood what was needed.
Newt, like Churchill, is a historian. And he draws upon his knowledge of American history as a wizard to get the people roar with him. This is what is needed to blow away the gas bag in the White House presently. And I know legions of academics of all sorts, people who think they know it all because they can hold 20-year-olds in class rooms as hostages to their whims but could not get elected as a dog-catcher, will pour their acids on Newt. But where it counts, among the people on the ground and in the Republican primaries in the Red States where people are craving for the sight of someone knocking the beejesus out of the Saul Alinsky radical in the White House, Newt will score big.
I don't know if he will be able to get a war chest big enough to knock out Mitt – I suspect he will with people rallying around his candidacy – but he has the wind on his back, and he knows how to tack or, seeing this as a chess player, how to risk a gambit, he is well-poised to be the nominee. And once he is the nominee he will pivot for the general election, his base of conservative voters secure, to reach out to the once Reagan-Democrats in the key mid-west states for winning the critical number of 270 electoral college votes. If Newt does not drown himself while plugging leaks (there were all sorts of stories that Churchill continued to indulge in his drinks and that there were stand-by voice actors to read his speeches for the BBC during the war) then he will be America's 45th president. And he will be darn good, even though he will create quite a ruckus.
Someone pointed out recently that in all of the past century there has been only two Americans to balance the budget, while there have been any number of individuals who have walked on the moon, countless nonentities elected to the House and Senate, and more than a dozen elected to reside in the White House. But only two Americans in this past 100 years have balanced the budget. Now guess, who?
Calvin Coolidge. And.....
Newt Gingrich!
So after the G.O.P. primary voters have seen and heard from everyone, especially the pundits who have never gone down and sweated in the boiler room, it comes down to Newt with his flaws magnified and his achievements undeniable. If the G.O.P. primary voters are serious about a balanced budget, and then putting the American economy on a glide path to reduce the debt as quickly as is possible and reasonable under the circumstances, Newt knows how to stick handle these issues and deliver with the added advantage of having the skill and the bravado of sticking it to the liberal media. Ron Paul is a cult figure. Mitt is an establishment guy to keep the seat warm for the next G.O.P. establishment’s preferred candidate. Rick Santorum is a nice guy who finishes you know where. As good bridge players know so well, you play with the cards dealt not with the cards one wishes for.
Newt is the hand dealt in this election year. If he is de-railed, the chances are 50-50 or better for the Saul Alinsky radical to complete his mission of destroying America. Mitt, like McCain, has no idea how to out-jab and knock out a Saul Alinsky radical. Mitt thinks Obama is someone just over his head, and he as the man in a grey flannel suit with experience in business will make the case for capitalism and free enterprise, and keep the good old SS America sailing by mouthing canned stuff. I think not. I rest my case.
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Comments:
Jul '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Claire Berlinski"
"Newt is the hand dealt in this election year. If he is de-railed, the chances are 50-50 or better for the Saul Alinsky radical to complete his mission of destroying America. Mitt, like McCain, has no idea how to out-jab and knock out a Saul Alinsky radical. Mitt thinks Obama is someone just over his head, and he as the man in a grey flannel suit with experience in business will make the case for capitalism and free enterprise, and keep the good old SS America sailing by mouthing canned stuff. I think not. I rest my case. "
Good stuff Claire! Now if the monied and establishment members of the GOP end up supporting him if nominated we have a chance for a race. Should Romney get the nod he would do well to emulate some of the behavior and tactics the next president needs as you outline. We have a chance for a race then too. We do not need just a good manager but also a forward thinker with an appreciation of our crisis and the guts to take on business as usual.
Edited on January 26, 2012 at 10:02amDec '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Claire, check out my post on Member Feed, "I can be a Pundit too. Wow." I tell Ann Coulter the political facts of life in Florida. If Newt breaks Mitt's neck in Florida we are in a whole new race. Also, check my comment #15 on Main Feed "Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson: John Yoo and Richard Epstein"
There is a great deal riding on this situation. We must not worry about calling the winner of the race, let Gd do that. We must keep our mind in the game. The Supreme Court needs political re-enforcement to strike down Obamacare (with a little help from Dr. Epsteins Legal Radar). We've got to put the heat on the Court NOW!!!
Sep '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Claire, for what it's worth, see my Comment #3 on the Newt Gingrich and Amazing Grace thread. London bookmakers are offering very good odds on the eventual candidate being none of Romney, Gingrich, Santorum and is the 4th one still in the race (Ron Paul?).
Mar '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
As a son of "Me Generation" parents, the first part of Mansur's argument rings hollow. I witnessed the beginning of the wave of endemic divorce, and I saw my friends' families torn apart by selfishness and pettiness. (Thank God that my parents have stuck together through their hard times.) I am awaiting the day that the post-Boomers enter the Presidential field. We need a Presidential candidate with a sense of responsibility, not destiny. That's why I'm reluctantly for Romney or Santorum. And enough with the comparisons to Churchill, just because they were both historians. Until he escapes from a PoW camp or charges Taliban fighters on horseback, Newt remains the selfish man-child so symbolic of his generation, not the next Winston S.
Dec '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Fat Dave, I am the offspring of the "me" generation as well. I don't think you can underestimate the level of acceptance that existed then for people to cast aside their obligations to their families to pursue their personal happiness. While the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way, there are probably enough people out there who have been tempted to stray in our generation to cut Newt some slack. This is a gut check election. It is a gamble to nominate Newt. I don't see him lasting two full terms, and if he actually won the presidency, I can see him choosing to step down for 2016. Who he chooses for cabinet positions, for VP, will be very important as I can see Newt getting bored with plugging holes in the good ship U.S. of A. But what he can accomplish while engaged and determined could be worth all of the defending conservatives will have to do for him, though, unlike W, he will be defending himself as well. If I get a chance, I will gamble. Romney had my vote in 2008, but his brand is not appealing post-Tea Party.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Its a choice between Buzz Light Year and Woody with a brokered convention giving us Stinky Pete.
Mar '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I stack Newt's lamentable personal history, abrasive personality and bizarre ideas against Rick Santorum's socially conservative, fiscally moderate record and Mitt's preternatural inability to counterfeit sincerity, and I come up with...feh.
One thing I know for certain. Newt wouldn't have any problem whatsoever getting his message across to the people. The media won't be able to suppress it. Reagan went over them -- Newt would go through them.
Is that enough? Probably not, but as Mr. Mansur points out, Newt has been over this terrain before.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Right now Mitt's going Al Gore on us, Newt's reminding me of Nixon or the Captain on the Caine Mutiny, Santorum is from Happy Days and Ron Paul is Grandpa from the Simpsons.
I'm asking the waiter for another round and hope I don't make it into the office today.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Perhaps Mitt's Star Trek the Next Generation Data routine can be made fully human in time to avoid us having a brokered convention where I can cheer on Stinky Pete.
Apr '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I'm getting on board the African Queen (with a bit of trepidation) while keeping a kernel of hope (fantasy?) alive that a hero emerges from the smoke and wreckage of a brokered convention. The brokered convention is a long shot at best, so making the most of the current situation, I'm going with the guy who can fight mean and dirty. We're going to need that in any candidate going up against The One.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I have a solution.
We could nominate a Republican Teleprompter to go up against the other Teleprompter while the rest of us catch up on all the great television we heard about from the podcast.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
he as the man in a grey flannel suit with experience in business will make the case for capitalism and free enterprise, and keep the good old SS America sailing by mouthing canned stuff.
Right now he is not even making an effective case for capitalism or free enterprise. I could take a whole lot of that Bloodless Bain data crunching that Rob Long spoke about in the podcast.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I'll be fine. No, really.
Apr '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Pseudodionysius: I'll be fine. No, really. · 4 minutes ago
No more to be said.
May '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
All of this "boiler room" talk just sounds like an excuse for years of poor judgment and bad behavior. Seems this is a guy who, like so many, just has his finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing. He just happens to have a gift of great wit and intellectual strength.
I've been wavering and considering, but hearing a promise to put up a permanent base on the moon by 2020 has exhausted my patience.
May '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Mansur's right on both Gingrich and Romney. The question is if Gingrich can keep himself together through November, and not say or do some horribly erratic thing between the nomination and the election that explodes his candidacy.
Does the GOP play it safe or risk it all on one throw?
BTW, on Gingrich out-debating Obama. Why is everyone so sure Obama will do any debates? He backed out on federal financing for his campaign, why wouldn't he back out on debates if he thought it would serve his interest?
Feb '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Great job Salim. You've articulated my feelings almost to a T.
I'm reminded of what I heard on Simon Schama's "A History of Britain" when describing Winston Churchill: He fights.
That's Newt: He fights.
I'm sick of socialism lite. I'm tired of being demonized because my household income is higher than the median. I understand that business as usual in DC is going to bankrupt the country. I don't believe that Romney does. I think he wants to manage what we have better, not tear down the welfare state.
Newt has been in the (political) wars and won victories. Romney has created Romneycare. Newt's personal life is full of trash and failures. Romney's jersey is still clean in the 4th quarter.
In short, I see Romney as McClellan and Newt as Grant.
We need a general who fights.
Sep '10
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
He's right: we're looking for someone who can fight the Left. It's too bad it isn't someone less erratic with less baggage, like Christie. (Yes, I know he has problems--but compared to Newt, he looks amazingly good.) But Christie has thrown in with Mitt, so he's out of contention for now.
I'd prefer someone like Ryan, Christie or Daniels to Newt. But you go to war wth the Army you have, as Rumsfeld once famously said.
Edit: actually I'm hoping that Newt wins Florida, whereupon the GOP professionals go nuts, and they find a way to make Ryan, Christie or Daniels the nominee. But that's just me dreaming.
Edited on January 26, 2012 at 3:00pmJan '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
Boiler room, my eye. Government is more like a sausage factory.
Paul Erickson: All of this "boiler room" talk just sounds like an excuse for years of poor judgment and bad behavior.
I've been wavering and considering, but hearing a promise to put up a permanent base on the moon by 2020 has exhausted my patience. · 1 minute ago
Only someone who doesn't understand political basics, or has has never worked in a political boiler room, or made sausage for that matter, would miss the glaringly obvious fact that Newt is campaigning in FLORIDA - you know, the state with Cape Canaveral - the base that hires thousands of workers. Putting a base on the moon conveys any number of advantages to the country, but in these tough political times it makes particular sense as a conservation of resources move. We're in danger of losing highly trained technology types because of budget crunches, I think it's a good idea to keep them in the loop - because our future will be based on technological advances, not brute force. Training takes time and lots of money. It's cheaper, long run, to sustain what we have against a future need.
Jan '11
Re: Salim Mansur on Newt Gingrich: A Man Dirty Enough to Do the Job?
I wrote a post on much the same topic yesterday, and others have written similar posts. I suppose that shows the uneasiness we're all feeling.
One slight point that needs mentioning: a number of pundits (Mike Murphy in the recent podcast, for example) argued that one of Newt's "flaws" is that he's "liable to implode." Then they refer to his recent rise, only to come back quickly to earth. But what strikes me here is that Newt didn't implode. He was brought down, attacked by a barrage of negative ads which were launched by many of the same people who now claim that it was Newt's fault.
Essentially, they're justifying their attacks on Newt on the grounds that he's liable to explode, but he wouldn't have imploded had they not launched those negative ads. That's a self-fulfilling prophecy, which means they haven't justified anything.
Besides, these days, negative ads are like mud ... it doesn't matter how clean you are before they throw the mud, because after they throw it, everyone is just muddy. You can make anyone implode, if you just run enough ads.