Sabato's Seven States
This is an interesting analysis of the 2012 dogfight. From Larry Sabato, who is always thoughtful, in today's WSJ:
Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses, primaries—that's the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College...
Republicans...are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.
I think we're very strong in Ohio -- Obama is going to pay a price there for his mess of an economic policy -- and Florida makes me think a lot about Marco Rubio, the young Senator from that state. Something tells me I'm not the only one thinking about him.
That's 253 electoral votes. Where do we find the 17 more we need?
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
I think Colorado and Virginia are your best bets. They are both red-hued purple states that will swing back to the GOP for economic reasons.
I think the GOP takes Wisconsin too where the Tea Party is strong...
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
That makes Florida do or die.
Without Florida it you must to win three out the other four, with it only one of the other four.
May '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Two guesses what the Democrats' strategy will be in Florida. If you thought that ad showing Paul Ryan pushing Granny off a cliff was bad, just wait.
Republican candidates need to clarify their positions on Social Security and Medicare now, not in response to mischaracterizations later.
May '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
If the White House is expecting a November union victory in Ohio to billow Obama's sails going into 2012, I'm going to politely disagree.
Edited on September 7, 2011 at 3:15amApr '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
I think that Penn. will go Rep. this cycle. And if Obama doesn't stop the bleeding soon, I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan and Maine go red too.
Jun '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Virginia and Nevada or Virginia and Colorado will do the trick.
Dec '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Anybody that is predicting Florida, at this stage, fundamentlly does not understand Florida.
Florida is a tinderbox of densely populated racialist and socialist enclaves, near the coasts and Orlando, sprinkled amongst vast areas full of cattle and other agricultural interests.
Florida's conservatives do not show up at the polls, for people like Romney or McCain. Here in rural Florida, if you do show up, the old biddies manning the tables at the baptist church don't even know where to find the Republican ballots, during primaries, nor your own name, right there on the page, during general elections.
It's a soft-pedal slow-down by entrenched activists, just to discourage people from even showing up, much less insisting upon being handed your ballot, when they can't find it. We bend over backwards to question dimpled chads on the coasts, while in the interior of the state, those votes are never challenged. We use state dollars to pay for counseling for traumatized coastal voters that might be sad if a Republican gets voted in.
If we have an inspiring candidate, Floridians will vote overwhelmingly Republican. I do not think we will have one. That is planned.
Jul '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Virginia and either New Hampshire or Iowa. The trend in Virginia is for the Northern Virginian immigrants to support the great federal bloat and trend the state blue. The local sorting process is socialists move north to DC or Maryland where those scary guns are limited to criminals and patriots move south where they can blow up their own fireworks and carry concealed.
Federal reform and diminishment will leave Virginia firmly red as the carpet baggers leave for greener pastures for the first time since FDR.
May '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
This is why I've grown to dislike the electoral college. We can easily predict how 3/4ths of the electoral votes are going to go. Neither candidate is going to campaign in 35 of our 50 states including our most populated states. Our entire election comes down to 7 states and in reality most of the campaigning will be done in Florida and Ohio. I always laugh at nationwide polls. They don't matter. Just show polls of Florida and Ohio.
May '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
On the other hand can you imagine how bloody, nasty and expensive a campaign would be without it?
Apr '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
There is a interesting potential wildcard in the mix. Some of Obama's solid blue states have signed in legislation that awards their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. Depending on the general level of dissatisfaction or enthusiasm in the population that could switch electoral votes in several solid democrat states. It probably can't survive a legal challenge but it could be very fun to watch.
May '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
EJHill
On the other hand can you imagine how bloody, nasty and expensive a campaign would be without it? · Sep 6 at 4:53pm
Is Obama spending a billion dollars on this next election not expensive? Bombarding the good people of Ohio and Florida with relentless campaign ads not oppresive?
May '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
So imagine that x20.
Sep '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Sisyphus:
Federal reform and diminishment will leave Virginia firmly red as the carpet baggers leave for greener pastures for the first time since FDR. · Sep 6 at 4:44pm
From your lips to God's ears. I cannot speak for "occupied Virginia" but the rest of the state seems to me to get redder by the day but I make no effort to hang out with the opposition.
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
CJRun, that's a good summary of FL. People often forget that the "conservative" element here isn't a solid block, it's the proverbial big tent. The cultural conservatives, for example, are north FL plus seniors plus first generation Hispanic immigrants, and each segment can be flipped to a Democratic vote if their favorite hot-button issue is at play.
Rob, the polling down here usually has good predictive value (if you can get at the methodology to double-check it). You won't be able to safely call FL until you see a few months of late campaign state polls.
Obama won FL in 2008 by 3% of the vote. The real question will be: was his chameleon halo, now tarnished, worth at least 3 points?
May '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
EJHill
So imagine that x20. · Sep 6 at 5:23pm
There's only a finite ammount of money any candidate can raise. Candidates used to run nationwide elections and they were cheaper and more civil than they are today. Our candidates focusing on only a handful of states isn't healthy for our democracy.
Jul '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
EJHill
On the other hand can you imagine how bloody, nasty and expensive a campaign would be without it? · Sep 6 at 4:53pm
Actually, all the Dems would have to do is campaign in New York, Chicago, LA, and a few other major cities in order to win the popular vote. People in N, S Dak, WY, etc., would be cut out of the voting entirely. Even with such a small country at the time, our Founding Fathers understood this and thus the Electoral College.
Apr '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
I don't see how this changes without the electoral college except that instead of the campaigning being in primarily as few swing states based on the current electoral map it is relegated to a few areas determined by population density. Additionally then you are talking largely about only urban areas being important in a campaign. Plus since the population is the densest on the coasts I think you would see a shift toward the northeast and coastal california, which is just the direction we don't want the county to go in.
Edited on September 7, 2011 at 2:59amMay '11
Re: Sabato's Seven States
Not a fan of going to the popular vote. But I don't think our founding fathers envisioned our candidates only campaigning in a handful of states and shutting out 3/4ths of the populace.
May '10
Re: Sabato's Seven States
"Shutting out"? In what sense? The electoral votes from every state are counted.