This is an interesting analysis of the 2012 dogfight. From Larry Sabato, who is always thoughtful, in today's WSJ:
Straw polls, real polls, debates, caucuses, primaries—that's the public side of presidential campaigns 14 months before Election Day. But behind the scenes, strategists for President Obama and his major Republican opponents are already focused like a laser on the Electoral College...
Republicans...are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes. That's why seven super-swing states with 85 electors will determine which party gets to the magic number of 270 electoral votes: Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).
Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia.
I think we're very strong in Ohio -- Obama is going to pay a price there for his mess of an economic policy -- and Florida makes me think a lot about Marco Rubio, the young Senator from that state. Something tells me I'm not the only one thinking about him.
That's 253 electoral votes. Where do we find the 17 more we need?