Sabato's Presidential Math
What you're looking at is Larry Sabato's first look at the 2012 presidential landscape.
Sabato, of course, is the noted University of Virginia political scientist whose "Crystal Ball" is a must-read for political junkies.
I'll save you the time of calculating the 50 states. Sabato's math (the sum of "lean", "likely" and "safe" states:
247 Democratic Electoral Votes
180 Republican Electoral Votes
111 Undecided
But, if you remove the "lean" states . . .
196 Democatic Electoral Votes
170 Republican Electoral Votes
172 Undecided
I take that as very encouraging news for anyone who wants Barack Obama to become a full-time constituent of Rahm Emanuel. The Democrats, Sabato's math seems to tell us, do not have a lock on the Electoral College.
Anything on the map surprise you good folks?
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Comments :
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
We can agree right away, can't we, Bill, that Sabato's wrong about NC, VA and IN? All three lean GOP. (My hunch is that NM does, too, but I feel less certain about it.)
Am I right, Mr. W?
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
I'm surprised that Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio are listed as toss up states. No way. All are moving back to the right. In truth though, nothing really matters without a decent presidential candidate and, as Trump's success illustrates, we don't have one. Booo!
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
I suppose I should hit the "post comment" button sooner, as it appears I was beat to the punch by that Peter Robinson fellow (pun intended).
May '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Florida is ours...that's enough to start the domino effect. I think NC and VA go back red too....
The shocker is that PA will probably fall. As for a candidate, we have plenty who would do a fine job; this guy has set the bar low. Remember, as usual, this will be a referendum on the incumbent. Is there anyone here who thinks gas will be much lower, if not even higher, by Nov. 2012? 'Nuff said.
I look forward to the panic in Sept 12 when Illinois goes toss-up.
Edited on Apr 21, 2011 at 8:41pmApr '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
<a href="http://ricochet.com/main-feed/Presidential-Math-Or-David-Brooks-Wrong-Again/%28comment%29/123419#comment-123419">Last Friday,</a> I had Florida, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia as Republican, Iowa as Democrat and New Mexico as toss up.
Since the Reagan landslide, Iowa has gone to the Democrats every time except 2004. New Mexico has at least gone Republican twice.
Ultimately, the objective is to change the battlefield and to flip states from blue to red and not just rely on switching toss-ups, but one must start somewhere. And I'd rather start from a harder scenario than be too complacent and have Republicans get caught flat-footed when it's too late.
Feb '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
That sorta depends on whether or not the ballot box for the northeast heights of Albuquerque goes "missing" or not.
Aug '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
It seems a little surprising that only one State (10 EC votes) leans R while four (51) lean D.In particular when that last number (51) is coincidentally very close to Obama's disapproval rating on the RCP average of polls.
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
I'd put IN, VA and NC in "lean Republican".
Obama won 52% of the independent vote in 2008. These are three states, I'd argue, where "benefit of the doubt" independents won't be as kind in 2012.
Moreover, I don't envision the same bow-wave of enthusiasm. No George W. to kick around; Obama isn't a hyopthetical but a known entity. Yes, there's still a "feel good" vote there, especially for those who like the idea of sending an international message, but it's not the same novelty campaign.
One area I'd keep an eye on Peter: Internet fundraising. For all the hoopla of the big-ticket events here in California, I'm curious as to smaller-donor enthusiasm. Also curious as to how that money flows on the GOP side. Romney in particular.
Edited on Apr 21, 2011 at 10:58pmMay '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Why is everybody on the west coast except me (and Kenneth) so dumb?
Oct '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Looking at the Cook Report, he has NH as leans Democrat; PA and WI as toss ups; VA as leans Republican; NC and IN as likely Republican; and TX and GA as solid Republican.
Jul '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Sabato is a brilliant and tireless political analyst with an astonishingly accurate (~99%) track record of predictions from 2002-2008. In 2010, he predicted an 8 seat Republican gain and got 7, and predicted a 55 seat Republican gain in the House, falling 8 short of the 63 seat gain in the first Tea Party election.
If Sabato has a weakness, it's that he bleeds blue and always seems to expect his native Virginia's demographics to lurch leftward. The "Obama Wins" scenarios I am finding on his site paints Virginia blue, and if Virginia (or NC, or FL) come up red, Obama falls short.
Oct '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
I think you're correct Sisyphus. If IN, VA, and NC go Republican, and if Obama doesn't win both OH and FL, he is in deep trouble.
Jul '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Why, thank you, Kervin. But I must point out that Ricochet does have a goodly number of smart Members, Contributors and Editors here in California.
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
That Obama is vulnerable there can be no doubt. But you cannot beat someone with no one -- and the Republican race is confused by the presence of a host of no ones. We need a standard-bearer who can articulate our argument and who is known as a good man. The great danger is that we nominate a managerial progressive -- the sort of fellow who thinks that there is nothing wrong with the administrative state that good management on his part cannot fix. Do you know whom I mean?
Mar '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Emphasizes the importance of having Rubio as the Veep candidate.
Sep '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
All very true. But one quibble. Is Obama really "someone"? I know he's president and everything, but I think the GOP needs to start, right now, running ads against Obama. All they have to do is put Obama 2008 vs, Obama now. It need not be heavy handed, just reminding everyone that what Obama says doesn't necessarily come true and may not even be said sincerely.
As to the right candidate, I agree with you fully that nominating another "managerial progressive" would be suicidal for the Republican Party. I want the ideological debate now. Bring it on!
Feb '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
In NC, the presidential and gubernatorial elections are held in the same year. The simple fact with NC is that the Democratic presidential candidate has always trailed the Democratic gubernatorial candidate for the last 60+ years. The Democratic incumbent gubernatorial candidate is down 15 points to her likely GOP challenger. In short, Obama is toast in NC unless Gov. Perdue makes a large comeback.
Mar '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
I like the idea of running a series on Obama: Before and After. There is a lot to choose from, so just have a nice, low level campaign that rolls on and on with the contradictions and about-faces.
Nov '10
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Again, I think the Prosser vote clearly suggests that Wisconsin has tipped toward the Republicans. If they can manage to enact Voter ID, I would expect that to become permanent.
Franco
All very true. But one quibble. Is Obama really "someone"? I know he's president and everything, but I think the GOP needs to start, right now, running ads against Obama. All they have to do is put Obama 2008 vs, Obama now. It need not be heavy handed, just reminding everyone that what Obama says doesn't necessarily come true and may not even be said sincerely.
Heck, just run some ads with clips of Obama saying obnoxious things. "clinging to guns and religion." "if you're still driving an 8-mpg clunker . . ." For crying out loud, run an ad with the "57 states." No comment is necessary.
Apr '11
Re: Sabato's Presidential Math
Colorado as a 'toss up' is being generous. We're increasingly more and more Blue here, even after the mid-terms....