Sabato Predicts: GOP takes House; Thisclose in the Senate
What I like most about Larry Sabato, the keen observer of the political map from the University of Virginia, is that he often infuriates me with his political analysis. Not because he's wrong, but because he's right. He tells me things I don't want to hear.
So it makes it sweeter -- a lot sweeter -- when he tells me something I do want to hear. From his Crystal Ball post this morning:
Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net. This is a “net” number since the GOP will probably lose several of its own congressional districts in Delaware, Hawaii, and Louisiana. This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama’s Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot (discussed later in this essay). If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today.
In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover. Since World War II, the House of Representatives has flipped parties on six occasions (1946, 1948, 1952, 1954, 1994, and 2006). Every time, the Senate flipped too, even when it had not been predicted to do so. These few examples do not create an iron law of politics, but they do suggest an electoral tendency.
I'm a political junkie. As much as I'd like a GOP takeover in the Senate, I'd also like to see Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson suddenly get popular with both sides. Suddenly start getting little gifts in the mail.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Sabato Predicts: GOP takes House; Thisclose in the Senate
Obama's administration is really a triumvirate, Obama Reid Pelosi. He has never seen the Presidency as anything other than an extension of the Congress, which is why so many of the really large errors have been cooked up by the House and the Senate. The powerful heads of the various committees come almost exclusively from the far left, urban reaches of the USA (I am thinking of Jay Cost's analysis here), and they are almost all OLD, with ideas that flourished in the 1960s. If November does nothing else, I hope it throws out at least some of these rich, trust fund hippies. Starting with Boxer. Please.
Re: Sabato Predicts: GOP takes House; Thisclose in the Senate
And here's this from Felicia Sonmez at The Fix:
Even rightie campaign junkie Patrick Ruffini is surprised by the number. "I had it lower," he tweets. "Wow."