Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Almost two weeks ago, some interesting events took place in Russia that caused much of the West to take pause. Russia’s Duma election returned surprising results where the majority party, United Russia, took a shellacking, and gave many people a thought or a hope that something had finally changed in Putin’s Russia. Our own Peter Robinson excitedly asked if Russia had, at last, begun it’s march toward the West. I promised to write about this situation after I talked with several of my Russian friends in order to get an inside glimpse of what was really happening. This delayed my response, but I think the timing of this post is for the better since we have now been able to look back, take a breath, and see where this is all going.
My conclusion is that something significant did happen, however, it will not produce the change that we typical Westerners crave for our Eurasian brothers. This is evolution and certainly not revolution. Vladimir Putin will win the presidential election in March and will still hold the reins of power for the next six years. If all goes well, he could even last a total of twelve years, but I won’t let myself get on such an untenable hook as Russia’s future.
So how did we get here? I’ll need to assume that readers know a bit about Russian politics to keep this post to a reasonable length. To keep it short, Putin, after a four-year hiatus from the Presidency, is now eligible to run again for the office. His party, United Russia, is the mechanism for generating his popularity and legitimacy. If United Russia does well in the parliamentary elections, Putin does well everywhere else. Unfortunately for Putin, United Russia performed poorly in last week’s Duma elections, widespread voter fraud occurred, and thousands of Russians in most major cities demonstrated against the falsified results. Now people ask, “Is Putin finished? Has he lost his mandate? Will Russia change?”
For some specifics, the elections reduced the direct power of United Russia from a typical majority in the range of 60% or more down to a more sober 49.5%. If not for the enormous number of election violations that took place, some experts claim that United Russia’s share could have dropped another fifteen to twenty percentage points. This is an astounding drop in popularity for the party that claimed to own the stability and prosperity of the nation for the past 11 years. Putin’s popularity rating has also taken a drubbing in the past few months and especially in the past week. Recent polls show he has only a 50% approval rating. This is the lowest result he has received in the past decade. Usually, he garners ratings in the sixties or seventies (and higher).
When reading the numbers, it is easy to get giddy. However, several realities descend upon the scene, and give the desire for change some serious obstacles.
- Putin’s ratings are still high enough to win the Presidential election. There is some talk that he may need to go to a run-off election since he is required to gain at least 50% of the vote. Still, he will likely overcome and win his third term.
- There is no viable alternative candidate to run against Putin. Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist candidate, and Mikhail Prokhorov, the richest man in Russia, are the only two possible contenders. Most don’t take Zyuganov seriously in Russia and the jury is still out on Prokhorov. Russians typically don’t relate to oligarchs well, so he has an uphill climb.
- Even if there was a good candidate to compete with Putin, it is incredibly difficult to run for President in Russia. A candidate must garner 2 million signatures from the electorate to run. These signatures must come from all regions in the country at a proportion to their population. This is a logistical nightmare. Very few have the infrastructure to make this happen. Those that have attempted this in the past have ultimately failed because the Election Committee frequently declared that a large portion of the signatures were forged.
- The Power Vertical is still the Power Vertical. This is a crucial factor in Russian politics, economics, and culture. Putin, with cooperation from the apathetic citizenry, has created a vast and deep network of support from the Duma and the Justice Ministry all the way down to the lowly bureaucrat at the DMV or the fire brigade. Everyone is dependent on the other. If it breaks, i.e., a new leader comes to power, the entire network falls apart and the system could easily descend into chaos as it did in the 1990’s. Nobody wants that.
- Influential opposition parties will not be running as many candidates. They’ve had enough of the games. They also don’t want a revolution for reasons stated in bullet 4.
- Regardless of United Russia’s newfound percentage in parliament, Putin will still maintain control of the Duma’s agenda. The Duma has never formed itself into a serious arm of the government and is largely ignored. Also, the other parties within the Duma, though considered opposition parties, are really “Kremlin-controlled” interest groups. Their existence is dependent totally on the whims of Putin and his political apparatus. None of these parties can stray from Putin’ whim too far. Any party that does gets shut down.
- Lastly, and most importantly, most Russians have a severe case of apathy. They hate politics, politicians, and everything to do with it. Change is too complicated. They’ll either not vote or just vote for the status quo. This is ultimately the most important factor for where Russia is going.
In summary, Russians have few options to produce change in their country and have little will to do so. There may be some compromises Putin is willing to provide to get him out of the pickle he is in at the moment, but in the end, people will shrug their shoulders and move on.
To illustrate this conclusion, I will give you the views of my Russian friends. In all cases, they are well-educated, speak two or three languages, work for multi-national companies or have financial security, and they are in their twenties and thirties. These are the people who would be the most westernized people in the country, yet their responses hardly inspire.
Friend 1:
Software Development Manager at an American company in Nizhny Novgorod, population 1.4 million. (this is where I lived for 5 years):
“I think nobody knows where is it going and how significant it is. There are lot of people who believes that the elections where faked (me included). However, many more people do not care or just scared to speak out. It all will be played in Moscow. NN or other provincial cities have little role. Compare 50-80 thousands of protesters in the capital and 1500-2000 in Nizhny. I was at Minin square last Saturday, the meeting was not permitted by city officials but all ended peacefully.”
Friend 2:
Staffing Manager at an American company in St. Petersburg.
“It is temporary. People in Russia doesn't want revolution. We just want our giverment to hear us and react according to our law. On Saturday there was a huge meeting in Moscow and other cities as well, and it went wery well - quietly and firendly from the both side either police or protestors.
The fact is that at some places the results of elections are extremly doubtful. But in general the elections went well and shows the real pictures.
Everything will be alright :)”
Friend 3:
Country Manager at an American company in Moscow.
“I am not really in a middle of it, so it is hard for me to be very objective, and here is my oppinion: middle class (professionals with good incomes not connected with government) wants a stronger voice in the government, better representation. At the same time it is still too insignificant in numbers, compared with other social groups and the ideas it supports do not resonate with to many others. Higher concentration of those middle class people are in Moscow, and it gives good reason to belive Election was crooked there. So people got upset and more resolute to get their voice out. It is unlikely things will get really screwy, out of control, but current ways the governmment does things will have to change. Will see. This is definately not a civil unrest - just a Hyde park type of event taken to extreme.”
Friend 4:
Software Developer working at a startup in Cyprus.
“Definetly there will be changes. I am sure, I only worry that other parties does not have reasonable/any agenda in economy. So it mostly just protest, but one should think one step futher or ones who come after United Russia can be the same.”
Friend 5:
Born and raised in Nizhny Novgorod, now married to an American and living in New York, studying English Literature at a local private college. (Pieced together from a Skype chat)
“I really don't care. And I never did. And I have no idea what happened to people this year. It is well known that the president always picks his substitute, it was always like that and it always will be.
So I don't understand why people act like it's something new
I think that the reason for it are social networks
My Russian vkontakte (ed. Russia’s version of Facebook) was full of propaganda and agitation information, slogans, pictures and so on. And here comes the rule of a crowd. People follow other people, without even understanding what exactly they are following and why they are doing so.
I think that people knew that election wouldn't be fair, and they tried to do something about it. The problem is that no one can offer any alternative, because there is no alternative.”
As you can see, I don’t see a revolution any time soon. If change does occur, it will be at a glacier’s pace. Of course, that won’t keep me from watching. Aside from Ricochet, this is where I spend a huge portion of my time. On the other hand, forecasting the future of Russia is a grim occupation. Sometimes the more you know about it, the less you feel qualified to predict it. It is surely the enigma that Churchill talked about.
In the meantime, I will see how Putin handles this situation. I’m sure he will promote new programs, promise much the same Medvedev did and never actually do it, throw in some patriotic purpose, and then squeak by for the next several years. I’m sorry to burst any baloons, but this is what I see for now. I could say so much more since Russia is an endless topic, but I’ll have to stop here. Feel free to ask any questions you have. I can expand on any of the items I mentioned to a much deeper level if you are interested.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Thanks for the rundown.
Do you have any book recommendations for Russian history / culture? I picked up this one up a while back, but only because I passed it on a discount rack.
Jun '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Thanks Aaron. Looks like you're my only fan!
As for your question, that's a doozy. I haven't read that book, but any rundown of Russian history as that appears to do is probably good with the facts, so I'd say you'd do well with it.
Another aspect beyond facts and figures are discussions about what Russians are really like based on their history. Although he is a well-known lib and throws in some comments that are hard to stomach, I thought Jonathan Dimbleby's book Russia captured a lot of great insights into their history and their current life. Give it a shot.
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
I'm a huge fan of this post too. Hands down the best distillation of the situation I've seen anywhere.
And Aaron, I really liked Russia: The Once and Future Empire from Pre-history to Putin by Philip Longworth.
Oct '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Thanks for a really helpful and clarifying post. Unfortunately, it’s depressing too. The apathy of the Russian intelligentsia is why, apocryphal or not, Napoleon’s comment will be Russia’s epitaph: “Russia has a lot of potential … and always will.”
I was in Moscow at the dawn of the Putin era. A Russian friend commented that the right analogy was with 1928-1929, referring to when Stalin’s grip on the Party fully coalesced, the “cult of personality” first blossomed, and the horrific quarter century of Stalinist repression began. I think my friend was prophetic at a time when most academics were still overly optimistic about the flowering of democracy thought to have begun with Yeltsin. Today we effectively have one party rule again, albeit attenuated by the occasional demonstration and the fact United Russia is a mere shadow of the CPSU. But a Putin cult of personality is real, he has shut down all opposition media, and he simply steals elections at will.
Question: Given all that and your post, should we have any confidence in Russian polling data, e.g. regarding Putin’s popularity?
BTW: dating myself, but "The Icon and the Axe" for Aaron?
Edited on Dec 22, 2011 at 9:32pmJun '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
HVTs:
Question: Given all that and your post, should we have any confidence in Russian polling data, e.g. regarding Putin’s popularity?
I can't tell you specifically where this latest poll came from but the most common pollster in Russia is the Levada Center. They have proven to be quite solid, refreshingly so. There is frequent talk that Russians don't answer polls very honestly and/or respond in ways that reflect resignation, so there could be some bias. Because of this, some say there is an underground discontent that goes unmeasured. However, this does not discredit Levada's motives or methods. Overall, I think the numbers for Putin are more or less correct.
Oct '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Yeah, this is my going-in position ... telling some stranger your actual views on any sensitive matter (and of all things, politics ... deadly consequences for that throughout Russian and Soviet history) is 100% alien to Russian and Soviet culture. Plus, if you can steal elections with vote fraud how hard can it be to manipulate polling/poll results? I just would not put much stock in anything that comes out of Russia's state-controlled media. I don't know anything about the Levada Center. But anyone that matters in Russia can be bought or, if not, easily eliminated. Few in our cushy, civil liberties obsessed Western culture can appreciate the ruthlessness of the FSB (the re-clothed, post-Soviet KGB, from whence Putin emerged). So even if their methodology and motives are pristine, if Putin's FSB wants to pressure Levada's leadership in to shading or outright faking results, they will not be able to resist.
Edited on Dec 23, 2011 at 1:42amOct '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Dave – to change the subject. The Stalin icon you use ... reminds me of Anne Applebaum’s book on the Gulag. She makes the point that whereas post-war Germany banned Nazi memorabilia, Soviet memorabilia is hawked on every former Warsaw Pact street corner. We think nothing of seeing the Hammer & Sickle where a Swastika would scandalize us. Yet tens of millions suffered gruesomely and died under the symbols of Stalinism and the visage of Stalin...more so than under Hitler. If I changed my icon to a similarly resplendent Hitler I'm sure it would cause hostility to flow my way (rightfully so). You evidently receive none. Or do you? Would your Russian friends react negatively to you associating yourself with their countrymen’s greatest tormentor? I think it’s safe to assume that if you had similarly lived in Germany, your German friends would be mortified to find Hitler as your icon.
I don’t intend to appear judgmental … it is not the same thing to have Stalin your icon as it is Hitler. The question is why is that so, even (presumably) for your Russian friends (whom I assume you wouldn’t consciously offend)?
Edited on Dec 23, 2011 at 3:47amSep '11
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Dave,
Thanks for this terrific update. Any chance that a truly liberal party will emerge in Russia--one committed to the rule of law, decentralization, separated powers, etc.?
Jun '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Flagg Taylor: Dave,
Thanks for this terrific update. Any chance that a truly liberal party will emerge in Russia--one committed to the rule of law, decentralization, separated powers, etc.? · Dec 23 at 7:23am
Emerge or do you mean actually matter? There have been numerous starts and stalls of liberal parties. Right Cause matches closest in rhetoric today with what you describe, but yet again, it is Kremlin-controlled and just kicked out Mikhail Prokhorov for being too anti-Putin. Usually, a party emerges and then dies by a thousand cuts through various administrative barriers. They lose credibility because they promote too much change and include people who were associated with the 90's, e.g. Chubais, Nemstov. Anyway, they still have a long ways to go before any of these types of parties can get any traction.
Jun '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
I've been challenged on this once before. I'm not trying to be clever or provocative. I also understand what you say. To me, this picture represents the antithesis of what we believe here at Ricochet. Additionally, while Hitler is remembered, Stalin is forgotten (just as you said). I want people to remember him. As for Russians seeing this, you'd be surprised how apathetic they are even with Stalin. It's startling. Meanwhile, I spend a large part of my time studying Stalin, the Revolution, and the 1920's, so it fits for me at the moment. Hope you can indulge me.
Oct '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
Dave Molinari
As for Russians seeing this, you'd be surprised how apathetic they are even with Stalin. It's startling.
Not surprised but saddened, perhaps. Russia’s apparently popular leader Putin has publicly lamented the 'tragedy for the world' (or words to that effect) of the Soviet Union's collapse and without Stalin there would not have been a Soviet Union of any global significance. Thus the Putin regime (ad infinitum) will never fully repudiate the mad Georgian any more than the PRC can repudiate Mao or North Korea can repudiate Kim Il-sung. There will be periodic manipulations of Western opinion to serve policy objectives, such as Putin attending reburial ceremonies at Katyn forest. Indeed, Khrushchev's attacks on Stalin were simply a means of thwarting rivals and consolidating power. It had the happy benefit of lulling useful Western academics and their State Dept acolytes into absurd but popular "convergence" theories, wherein we would become more like them and they more like us, everyone happily dancing around the Maypole together after a few generations. We saw what happened when Gorbachev tried to make them more like us. The amazing thing is that Gorbachev couldn't see it coming.
Sep '10
Re: Russian Elections: Not Much Ado About Something
I really enjoyed this post too, but was waiting for Diane Ellis to return.