Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics breaks down the break down. The short answer to why Romney lost is that he failed to get the rural white vote out. What a major failure. He should have had those people in his pocket. Very disappointing.
An excerpt:
But most importantly, the 2012 elections actually weren’t about a demographic explosion with non-white voters. Instead, they were about a large group of white voters not showing up...
Put another way: The increased share of the minority vote as a percent of the total vote is not the result of a large increase in minorities in the numerator, it is a function of many fewer whites in the denominator...
But in terms of interpreting elections, and analyzing the future, the substantial drop-off in the white vote is a significant data point. Had Latino and African-American voters turned out in massive numbers, we might really be talking about a realignment of sorts, although we would have to see if the Democrats could sustain it with someone other than Obama atop the ticket (they could not do so in 2010). As it stands, the bigger puzzle for figuring out the path of American politics is who these non-voters are, why they stayed home, and whether they might be reactivated in 2016 (by either party).
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Comments:
Nov '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
bump?
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
This article is a must-read. Thanks for highlighting it.
Nov '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Is there something screwy going on with the member feed? This post doesn't show up when I view the member feed. I can only see it by going to my profile.
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Shows for me ....
Jul '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Vast white wing conspiracy.
Jun '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Little did the liberals realize that the GOP voter suppression scheme was against their own voters.... I may never stop throwing up.
Nov '10
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
There is still a disconnect for me. What were all those massive Romney crowds about, if not rural white voters? Why did they come out in droves in 2010 but not 2012, when even more was at stake?
Edited on November 8, 2012 at 5:12pmApr '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
It is so important for the GOP to not rush to the "demographics are against us" argument andcompletely abandon our prinicples going after groups that are predisposed towards the Dems anyway. If this article is true, this election was a failure of Romney - PERIOD!
Sep '10
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
The idea that they are "all a bunch of crooks" has grown steadily during the past six years. It explains the tea party of 2010 and now that that election has made little difference a lot of people stayed home. The idea that a Mas moderate, ex-investment banker could inspire some sort of record GOP turnout after the Wall St fisco of 2007 was ludicrous. I was stupid for even thinking it could.
Sep '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Because this article is using hard voter counts it should also be adjusting for population changes. The continued flight of rural populations into suburbs and cities has likely scewed the numbers that the article is looking at. There were fewer white rural votes because there are fewer rural inhabitants. The growth in suburban voting numbers is likely due, in part, to this demographic shift.
Sep '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
If rural voters failed to substantially turn-out to unseat Obama, then there is a real problem. In my opinion, we need to convince more likely voters (e.g. hispanics) that our positions are better. Crying over non-turnout seems to be a waste of time.
Apr '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
"Rural white vote" not showing up - is this code for something not pleasant in the way of religious tolerance maybe? Has anyone done the exit poll on the M-word yet?
Apr '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Understood, but the total GOP number was way down, and if we assume that whites overwhelmingly vote for GOP, then we have to assume that the white turnout was down. It doesn't matter if these people live on farms, in suburbia or city centers.
Apr '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
If by M you mean moderate then I think you're on to something.
Apr '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
I'd love to know the answer to this one, but how do you exit poll people who don't show up to the polls to start?
Dec '10
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
ctruppi
If by M you mean moderate then I think you're on to something. · 3 minutes ago
Indeed. However, does this explain things like Mia Love's loss? She's a rock-ribbed conservative in Utah and lost.
Jul '10
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
That may explain OH, but does it translate to the rest of the country?
Michigan's 1st congressional district (the UP and northern parts of the LP) went for Romney after voting for Obama in 08, and turnout was up by 5% or so.
Jun '12
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
I think Charles Murray would be able to provide some insights into this turnout. Especially with his recent book, Coming Apart: The State of White America 1960-2010. My oversimplified historical reference is that some rural whites may be just as much the patrons of Roman bath houses as their supposed opposites in the inner cities. Since rural whites don't see a candidate who remotely resembles them in a cultural sense, however, they wouldn't see any reason to vote, even among those not caught up in meth and illegitimacy. Molly's post today might also have some resonance with this issue.
Mar '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
In the end, I think Sean Trende is ultimately going to be correct but . . .
Before we start totally analyzing who showed up and who didn't we should let all the votes come in first. Yes, the total vote count is going to be down compared to 2008 but not as much as it looks like right now. After all the votes are tallied, we can take a hardcore look. Until then, it's a bit of speculation. He only looked at Ohio. But I want to see the whole USA.
Mar '11
Re: Rural Whites Didn't Show Up
Lots of these sorts of folks turned out in New Hampshire but I think they bought the "Romney the Heartless Plutocrat" line and voted against him in our northern counties.
Much the same way that folks from elsewhere and in a previous generation voted stalwartly for FDR.