Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
This is it, according to Politico:
They’ll point out Gingrich’s past policy shifts which can protect them from attacks against Romney’s own inconsistencies. They’ll highlight Gingrich’s conservative apostasies as a hedge against Romney’s own moderate views. And they’ll highlight his stable family while leaving an unspoken impression about Gingrich’s two divorces.
Does this strike anyone here as particularly formidable? Reading this list, Mitt only has a clear advantage on the third point. He can paint Newt as inconsistent or not conservative enough, but in both cases Romney seems to have an even worse track record. As for family life, Mitt clearly has the better argument (though how important an issue that will be remains to be seen), but the Politico piece makes clear that he's only going to draw an implicit contrast, not go on the offensive. That's probably a (positive) reflection on Romney's character, but it strikes me as too subtle to move the needle much (that's not to argue that he go for the jugular on this topic -- that could leave Newt and Mitt in a death spiral ala Dean-Gephardt 2004).
If Mitt really wants to go on offense, it strikes me that he should rely on two other tactics that are given shorter shrift in the Politico piece. The first is putting meat on the bones of the charge that Newt is a Washington insider. Stating it as an abstraction won't work for Romney, as Newt can always turn this into a positive by pointing to his record of leading one of the biggest Republican surges in recent political history and enacting sweeping --- and conservative -- policy changes during his time as speaker. But using the tangible evidence of Newt's ties to Freddie Mac -- a topic on which no conservative is willing to defend him and on which Gingrich has yet to develop a persuasive response -- could knock him off balance.
The second -- which the Romney camp has virtually no control over -- is relying on attacks from other conservative candidates to diminish Newt's numbers. With Herman Cain fading fast, and both Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann struggling to remain relevant, I initially though this passive approach might not yield much fruit. Ron Paul's devastating new ad, posted below by BThompson, however, shows that judgment to have been premature. The Romney team must be delighted by this video, as having it come from a philosophical purist like Paul allows for a complete end-run around the discussion about the beam in Mitt's eye.
None of this, of course, is meant to convey my enthusiasm for Romney's triumph. As regular readers know, I consider Newt flawed but superior to the former Bay State governor, even as I admit that I'm stocking up on antacids in anticipation of what could happen with nominee Gingrich. It's just that -- especially on a day when the Romney campaign still seems to have a bizarre fixation on Rick Perry -- Mitt's plan of action seems lacking in the killer instinct necessary for a front-runner. Romney can't simply count on Gingrich knocking himself out of contention ala Cain, Perry, or Bachmann. This time he's playing big-league ball.
- Comment (8)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Jun '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
I think Gingrich will do well in the South. There's nothing that Evangelicals like more than a reformed sinner that came back to Jesus--even a Catholic Jesus--and Romney just doesn't have much time to catch up on the sinning part and still have time to repent.
Jan '11
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
All this talk about Romney pulling something out of a hat to beat the other contenders back is folderal. This is the first time he's been seriously challenged in this contest, and criticizing a fellow Republican violates Reagan's first principle. It's a new ploy that will wear out pretty quickly. In any case, this will be hard to do as he tries to get his barbs across while struggling to rid himself of the Romneycare tar baby. People will see that. Gingrich says he plans to avoid that trap.
Moreover, if after years of campaigning Romney can't break out of the support basement, criticizing Gingrich will not enhance his numbers, though it might bring Newt down a peg.
Romney is a good man, and I'll vote for him without hesitation should he be nominated fairly, but I'll do so without conviction, or the expectation that he'll win. And should he win, the best I, and perhaps others, can expect is a United States that looks like Massachusetts. Not Ted Kennedy, perhaps, but close enough to be worrisome. On the other hand, I don't think he can win, so why worry?
Mar '11
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
If Mr Romney can't take out Newt, he has no chance with Mr Obama, who is a thousand time more slippery than a Newt.
Maybe he (Mitt) should re-hire Mr Murphy?
Just joking.
Oct '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
there's not much romney can do but rely on surrogates... like jennifer rubin. :)
... and charles krauthammer.
http://www.northjersey.com/news/opinions/krauthammer_120211.html
Aug '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
Excellent analysis Troy, thank you.
Newt's ties to Freddie Mac are truly odious, I can not see any daylight between Newt's bought silence and straight up protection money- "nice little quasi-governmental money tree you got there, shame if anything were to happen to it". That is one issue Romney can drive hard without blowback.
Of the two remaining ankle biters, Bachmann will do the most damage. She is cornered in Iowa so she is very motivated, and she can take on Newt's immigration stance without it blowing back on her.
Insider-ism and crony capitalism are two side of the same coin, so Perry might not want to hit Newt too hard on that, same with immigration. Then again, he's got nothing much else to play and nothing much to loose. In fact he is nearly as irrelevant as Cain and that other fellow.
So Romney will get some cover as Bachmann fights to the death in Iowa, the Iowa Evangelicals are all about rationalizing voting for Newt over her right now so she needs to make a move.
And Ron Paul is just warming up, his grudge with Newt goes way back.
Aug '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
I agree with your assessment about Newt's vulnerabilities, Troy. It will be interesting to see how Romney's team reacts to the rapid rise of Newt as it may very well determine whether Romney gets the nomination.
As Calvin Coolige is famous for saying, "If you see ten troubles coming down the road at you and you do nothing nine will go in the ditch". Newt may be Romney's tenth trouble...
Jun '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
Squishy Blue RINO:
...
And Ron Paul is just warming up, his grudge with Newt goes way back.
I think this could be a blessing really. It will give Newt a chance to show how he can vanquish a foe in preparation for Obama. It will give Newt a chance to handle the charges that will come out early this way and will give him a dry run.
And if Newt can't vanquish a pipsqueak pseudo-intellectual like Paul then he shouldn't get the nomination.
May '10
Re: Romney's Plan to Neutralize Newt
Troy, it seems to me that the reason for the "bizarre fixation on Rick Perry" was explained pretty well by Mike Murphy in the podcast 2 weeks ago.