Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Claire Berlinski, Ed. ·
Oct 7, 2011 at 5:18am
At least he has advisors. I suppose that's a step in the right direction. "Any foreign policy would be better than none"--that's my new guiding principle.
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Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
In the sphere of foreign policy, my guess is that Romney would be pretty good. He has had ample time to think about these questions. He has indicated an understanding of the need for military preparedness. I know one of his advisors and think well of the man.
The only thing that Romney has said that worries me in this sphere has to do with China and trade policy. I do not believe that a trade war with China is in our interest. Romney appears to be on the other side. Given the depth and seriousness of the current economic downturn, it is only natural that democratic states flirt with economic nationalism. Romney ought to know better. Smoot-Hawley was a disaster.
Feb '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Paul,
What then should we do about China? Is the time for a big fight between the US and China in the future, when the world economy has settled down and there is less chance that US-China tension would spook global markets?
The question of industrial espionage seems to be more useful and less damaging argument than a currency war. Given that the Fed has been doing its best to keep interest rates (and therefore the dollar) as low as possible, we are not in the best of positions to attack China for currency manipulation right at the moment. We are on stronger ground attacking China for industrial espionage, and we are more likely to get some results. Going to the WTO and tightening our own laws (and stepping up our enforcement of our own laws) are sensible steps.
Jun '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I was listening to a Mark Helprin interview this morning. His point was, the business model, the Rumsfeld model (simple efficiency) is not the best way to prosecute war. War, especially in the Middle East, is primarily a physiological task. You want massive power, to completely destroy resistance in three days--not three weeks, not three years. You change things permanently by completely demoralizing the enemy. No other way.
May '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Paul A. Rahe:
The only thing that Romney has said that worries me in this sphere has to do with China and trade policy. I do not believe that a trade war with China is in our interest. Romney appears to be on the other side. Given the depth and seriousness of the current economic downturn, it is only natural that democratic states flirt with economic nationalism. Romney ought to know better. Smoot-Hawley was a disaster. · Oct 7 at 5:31am
Good point, Prof. Rahe, but aren't you torn a little on the issue of calling China out on its currency manipulations, since, above all else, the US must demonstrate strength and resolve -- that we aren't to be trifled with -- in its foreign policy? How does pretending not to notice when China cheats on WTO rules -- especially when they know that we know, and we know that they know that we know, etc. -- not project weakness?
I understand trade-war concerns, but it seems an issue that good conservatives could reasonably disagree on -- and, in fact, Sens. Portman and Sessions, good conservatives both, take the Romney position on this matter.
Jan '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Foreign policy is usually a mix of military, diplomacy, and trade.
But China is a peculiar situation. All three phases of foreign policy have to work closely together. There is no bullpen with China, so to speak. A "traditional" president who only knows the American economy is ill-equipped to handle China on the field of international trade.
Romney may be better prepared to deal with China on trade than any current candidate. Maybe the foreign policy expertise we need isn't so much military experience or even formal diplomatic experience as it will be experience with trade.
May '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
KC Mulville:
Romney may be better prepared to deal with China on trade than any current candidate. Maybe the foreign policy expertise we need isn't so much military experience or even formal diplomatic experience as it will be experience with trade. · Oct 7 at 6:34am
The crux of the trade problem is that what China wants to buy from us we don't want to sell. They want missile guidance systems. They want hi-tech aircraft. They want our advanced technical knowledge.
On the other side of the trade table, we want cheap i-Phones, cheap i-Pods, cheap X-Boxes.
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Jordan Rodriguez: Paul,
What then should we do about China? Is the time for a big fight between the US and China in the future, when the world economy has settled down and there is less chance that US-China tension would spook global markets?
The question of industrial espionage seems to be more useful and less damaging argument than a currency war. Given that the Fed has been doing its best to keep interest rates (and therefore the dollar) as low as possible, we are not in the best of positions to attack China for currency manipulation right at the moment. We are on stronger ground attacking China for industrial espionage, and we are more likely to get some results. Going to the WTO and tightening our own laws (and stepping up our enforcement of our own laws) are sensible steps. · Oct 7 at 6:07am
You are right about industrial espionage. My view of the currency question is that it is taking care of itself. China is no longer a very cheap place to produce things, and the yuan has gone up in value.
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Pilli
KC Mulville:
Romney may be better prepared to deal with China on trade than any current candidate. Maybe the foreign policy expertise we need isn't so much military experience or even formal diplomatic experience as it will be experience with trade. · Oct 7 at 6:34am
The crux of the trade problem is that what China wants to buy from us we don't want to sell. They want missile guidance systems. They want hi-tech aircraft. They want our advanced technical knowledge.
On the other side of the trade table, we want cheap i-Phones, cheap i-Pods, cheap X-Boxes. · Oct 7 at 6:51am
My bet is that the cheap gadgets will increasingly be produced somewhere other than China. Chinese labor costs have gone way up, and the yuan has appreciated.
Jun '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
RE: U.S. policy toward China.
We ramp up US oil and gas production so that we become an exporting nation. We can probably restore our trade balance with China by giving them what they need: energy. Drill, baby, drill!
May '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
~Paules: RE: U.S. policy toward China.
We ramp up US oil and gas production so that we become an exporting nation. We can probably restore our trade balance with China by giving them what they need: energy. Drill, baby, drill! · Oct 7 at 7:10am
And they can't pirate it either.
Mar '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I'm glad to see one of our candidates taking foreign policy seriously--and it isn't an accident that it is the "frontrunner" who is able to put together a team of advisors. Though, I join the cautionary note that you sounded in your first reaction, Claire. On the plus side, these are only the most senior advisors and I do suspect that they will be able to attract other talent who has spent more time in theater and on the ground in these various regions (I hope anyway.....)
I wonder how much of Romney's "trade war" rhetoric is meant as a rhetorical pre-emption against the charge that "he's just a businessman, of course he favors unlimited free trade" rather than a serious policy proposal.....
Oct '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Here's the list, in case anyone was wondering.
Mar '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I was - hmm, yes, impressive list. Especially Walid Phares, Robert Kagan, Norm Coleman and Nile Gardiner.
And I think Mr Romney has said he will return Winston Churchill to the Oval Office?
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I note in myself the rent-seeking impulse. I don't want to criticize anyone on the list in public because I hold a mild hope of having some influence with them if they make it into power.
That's not an attractive thing to observe in oneself, but it's instructive.
May '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: I note in myself the rent-seeking impulse. I don't want to criticize anyone on the list in public because I hold a mild hope of having some influence with them if they make it into power.
That's not an attractive thing to observe in oneself, but it's instructive. · Oct 7 at 8:19am
Why not just fire away? If they seek to serve at that level, they should be adult enough to handle some well-informed criticism. If not, then they've lost the benefit of your counsel and, perhaps, the indulgence of those of us who watch closely and expect high ranking officials to have the brains and guts to duke it out on serious issues.
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I'll think about it. Let's see what the other candidates come up with. I'm just glad, as I said, that someone has at last deigned to mention the words "foreign policy."
Apr '11
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Professor Rahe, have you read the chapter in the jobs document that you're talking about? If not, I think that you'd find it heartening (and short and easy to read). Romney is strongly in favour of reducing tariffs with everyone. It's pretty clear that he thinks that sabre rattling with China is important, but that he does not want to follow through into war. It's difficult to run on a public statement of "we're going to bluff", but it's essentially what's been done by every President since Reagan.
Having worked in China, I agree that a lot of Chinese problems will go away when their economy crashes (as I understand you), but I do not believe that IP theft will be one of those problems. Even a China with few productive sectors would find undermining international commercial rule of law a profit centre.
Nov '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
I'm not a Romney fan, but he is definitely growing on me. The fact that he has foreign policy advisors puts him head and shoulders above Cain; on foreign policy, the score is Romney 1, Cain 0.
And I say that as someone who likes Cain, by the way. Still, Romney is consistently good in debates, Cain is inconsistently good. No one doubts that Romney could end up in the White House, there are lots of doubts about Cain. Of course, there's two executives elected to the White House . . .
Romney/Cain, anyone?
May '10
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
Tim Pawlenty is the first I saw that made an explicit attempt to put foreign policy into the mix, but the shoe didn't fit.
Re: Romney's Foreign Policy Advisors: Second Reaction
A pretty good list. I know three of them fairly well. They are all quite capable.