Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Our discussion yesterday about swing states and Veep candidates got me to wondering: Judging by the math alone, what would Romney's easiest path to victory look like? I used the simplest methodology possible here, merely ranking states that Obama won in 2008 according to his margin of victory, from lowest to highest. Supposing Romney carried every state this year that McCain carried in 2008, I then asked, how many states would Romney need to capture from Obama--proceeding, again, by starting with the states in which Obama's victory proved lowest--to get to 270 electoral votes?
Here's the answer:
- North Carolina. Obama's margin in 2008: 0.33%. Electoral votes: 15
- Indiana. Obama's margin in 2008: 1.03%. Electoral votes: 11
- Florida. Obama's margin in 2008: 2.81%. Electoral votes: 27
- Ohio. Obama's margin in 2008: 4.58%. Electoral votes: 20
- Virginia. Obama's margin in 2008: 6.30%. Electoral votes: 13
- Colorado. Obama's margin in 2008: 8.95%. Electoral votes: 9
If, once again, he held all the states John McCain carried in 2008, then picked up each of the states above, Mitt Romney would win 274 electoral votes and the White House.
Why take the time to go through such an exercise? Well, to some of us, it's just fun to monkey around with the electoral map, and fun is--well, it's fun. But the exercise is also, in a couple of ways, suggestive.
The good news: Since Obama carried each, Florida has elected Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, Virginia has elected Republican Gov. Robert McDonnell, and Ohio has elected Republican Sen. Rob Portman, who carried the state by an astounding 18%. And in Indiana, of course, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels enjoys approval ratings that range from the mid-60s to the low 70s.
The bad news: Recent polls have mostly shown Obama leading Romney in Virginia--in some polls by high single digits. That can change, obviously--we're months away from Election Day, Lord knows--but it's ominous. Perhaps more to the point, in 2010 Colorado elected Democrats to both the senate (Michael Bennett) and the governor's mansion (John Hickenlooper). To carry Colorado, Romney would have to achieve a swing of some 9% from 2008, a difficult feat in itself, and do so in a state that, unlike Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Florida, has in no way warmed to the GOP.
On the list above, in other words, Virginia is that last state that ought to be easy--and these days even Virginia ain't looking all that easy.
Mitt Romney has his work cut out for him.
(For my fellow junkies: You'll find a list of 2008 results by state here. Note that, after Colorado, the next few states on the list run as follows: Iowa, which Obama carried by 9.53%; New Hampshire, which Obama carried by 9.61%; Minnesota, which Obama carried by 10.24%; Pennsylvania, which Obama carried by 10.31%; Nevada, which Obama carried by 12.49%; and Wisconsin, which Obama carried by 13.9%. To play around with different combinations of states that would enable Romney to win 270 electoral votes, look here.)
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
It looks close, Peter. Wouldn't it be fun -- if Obama does win -- if he loses the popular vote? It would help us bear the bitterness a bunch.
Oct '10
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
That election atlas looks great-thanks. Barone seems to think that there's good reason for Romney to be optimistic. The idea is that the 2012 voter is stilled concerned with the same issues as the voters in 2010. He points out that Obama's percentages against Romney isn't higher than his approval rating, and Romney isn't maximizing the potential Republican vote. Also, among those same swing states you looked at the GOP went from holding 56 to 82 of their 126 House seats.
Food for thought, indeed...
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
bereket kelile: TAlso, among those same swing states you looked at the GOP went from holding 56 to 82 of their 126 House seats.
Food for thought, indeed... · 2 minutes ago
Yup--and that's very, very encouraging. Now to see how much enthusiasm Romney can engender among those Tea Party voters who made such a difference in 2010--and have so resisted him this year.
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Spare us, oh, spare us! No hanging chad, please.
Apr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Aren't we better off acknowledging the difficulties and gearing up for the fight rather than complacently expecting everyone to agree that Obama is awful?
Be of good cheer. There's lots of time and we know what we're up against. That's a good place to start.
May '10
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
OH will be a challenge. On the one hand, things are quietly improving here. Under Kasich, unemployment has gone from above the national average to below (from the 10's to the 7's). On the other hand, Kasich is denied credit for his darn good (on balance) governing due to lingering resentment over his failed attempt at Scott-Walker-type union reforms. So it could be the worst possible scenario this fall: An audacious Republican governor turns around the must-have swingiest of swing states, and the do-nothing ingrate Dem president gets the credit for it.
Edited on April 15, 2012 at 12:47amJan '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
I grant the Romney campaign permission to use my handle.
Dec '10
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Ohio is tough,but so is Florida. One of the reasons is that we have so many retired union people from the Rust Belt, that have abandoned their states, for our state, where there is no income tax.
That being said, Obama took Florida by @ 51%, going from memory. Of the votes that the GOP didn't get, more than a percentage point were Nader, Bob Barr, and anybody else other than Obama and McCain.
Just having a candidate that is not, "I don't know anything about the economy" McCain will swing a considerable portion of the fence-sitters.
On the economic front, Florida was already in trouble in 2007 and heading for the dumper in 2008, even before Chuck Shumer started collapsing banks in July. Recall that Shumer did that even before McCain was nominated, the dream opponent for the socialists that already knew they had planted destruction in the economy.
I voted for McCain (Palin), but he was just the worst, ever, candidate.
What I worry about is the third candidate gambit.
I believe Romney would win FL straight up, against Obama. Probably other close states.
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Scott Reusser: OH will be a challenge....it could be the worst possible scenario this fall: An audacious Republican governor turns around the must-have swingiest of swing states, and the do-nothing ingrate Dem president gets the credit for it. · 2 hours ago
Edited 2 hours ago
Until I read that, Scott, this was turning out to be a lovely spring day. You know what makes it worse? It's not at all clear to me that you're wrong.
Thanks a lot for nuthin'.
Mar '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Cheer up, Peter - Mr Romney 48, Mr Obama 43.
Oct '10
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Here's what Bush cousin John Ellis thinks
41jellis “@RalstonFlash: nyti.ms/ISHHBt #wematter” do you think MN, WI and PA lean D? Or are they 51-49 states either way?
41jellis Wisconsin, especially, seems almost exactly 50-50 (see special election results and upcoming recall polling).
41jellis PA also seems more winnable for Romney than for either GWB or McCain. Energy, NRA, RTL should get him to a floor of 48%.
41jellis Obama polling in mid-40s in PA. GWB polled same there in 04 and 00. And lost both times, by 2.5 in 04 and 4.4 in 00.
41jellis MN tougher for Romney, no doubt. State voted for Dukakis and Mondale, so solid D history. Still, looks more and more like a swing state.
41jellis As for the AP's list of "toss-ups," lets just say that NC is not looking good for Obama. Nor is VA.
41jellis POTUS is measured (in polls) against the number 50. Obama running in 42-48% range in all AP "toss-up" states. Thus their nerves.
Apr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
I'd point out Colorado may not be as problematic as the evidence suggests. In 2010 we had a very weak gubernatorial candidate in Dan Maes who was then challenged by a third party because he was so weak. Also, the Senate candidate Peter Buck staked out a far right position on abortion and women's issues, and in the end lost by a narrow margin. There were many Republican victories in Colorado in 2010, we just lost some of the big ones due to poor luck and weak candidates.
Colorado is winnable and may not be the challenge it appears to be.
Apr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Mr. Ellis is frequently an excellent analyst; I felt much better about my Kaus fandom, back in 2004, when I discovered it was an enthusiasm shared by him. It's easy to fall for contrarians who disguise how nuts they are, but the Ellis endorsement was enough to persuade me that Kaus, while often disagreeing with others, was actually brilliantly insightful, rather than simply brilliantly convincing.
In this, he seems absolutely right to me. The problem with Mr. Robinson's analysis is that he's assuming that we're wanting to run a better McCain against Obama, or a McCain clone against a weaker Obama. We're not. We're running Romney, a different person with different strengths and weaknesses, different appeals, against a weaker Obama.
There are also different events. A great result in the Wisconsin recall could land Romney the state, and be helpful in Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa, particularly since Romney has such a Walker-like agenda and persona. If the Snyder recall happens and is defeated, that would be neat, too; an unpopular Snyder recall on the same ballot would probably tilt Michigan in our favor.
Edited on April 15, 2012 at 8:35pmApr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Pennsylvania, 53% Catholic, is not just naturally a more Romney friendly state than a McCain friendly state, but is probably the ideal state for the HHS mandate to help us out. It's pro-life, and even its Democrat politicians dislike elements of Obamacare that were features of Romneycare (the HHS mandate, in particular). Archbishop Chaput, author of Render Unto Caesar, whose diocese covers the entire state, suggested in 2004 that a vote for Kerry was cooperation with evil on these grounds, and Obama is waaay more problematic for the Church than Kerry. Even if they ended up voting Santorum out, they voted him in twice before that.
Fiscally, they recently elected Club For Growth prez Pat Toomey, and if running a Wall Street Lobbying group that campaigns for low taxes on Wall Street is a qualification for Senator, even the ridiculous cartoon versions of Romney should be hard to oppose. Fracking is handy, too, and confirms the "Democrats support special interest ideology against the ordinary people" narrative.
The one problem is the unions; Romney is implacably anti-union. Again, an awful lot depends on the HHS mandate remaining an issue, but more depends on the way Wisconsin works out.
Apr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
Assuming that the Obama campaign knows more than we do, which seems like a reasonable bet to me, Michigan is in play; EThompson's experience with the Detroit suburbs counts against this, as does the polling from everyone other than MRA. Nonetheless, Obama made his (hopefully!) final SOTU an ode to Michigan and the campaign talks up the auto bailout constantly. I don't tend to think the state so likely to flip as not, but I'd say it was closer than the 2008 results suggest. Again, Wisconsin really matters.
To lay off the Mid-West for a moment, the other area that Obama's revealed preferences suggest is important is the South-West. His announcement that he will focus his second term on immigration reform implies an interest in New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and maybe Washington (another state that Romney might have an interest in that McCain could never touch).
Unless Governor Martinez is the VP nominee, New Mexico is probably given to Obama by Governor Johnson's third party bid. Colorado seems hard to me, but I'll defer to Punumbra. Washington is also challenging for us, suggesting a Colorado/ Nevada target (plus, perhaps, North Carolina).
Apr '11
Re: Romney: The Easiest Path to Victory--and It Ain't All That Easy
The flip side is that although Obama is weaker this cycle, and we are stronger*, North Carolina and Virginia remain harder than the good news would make them seem. It is possible that we could beat Obama nationally by 5 points (as per the latest tracking poll), and still lose those states. Iowa, too, may be more difficult, despite Romney's superior support from social conservatives, and a bad Wisconsin recall would hurt Romney much more than it would have hurt McCain. It is possible that the military vote will be more of a challenge, too, although it is unclear how much McCain's biography helped him there in the end.
*Not just because Romney is better than McCain, but also because Bush, at the end of his second term, did not deliver the kind of electoral benefit that he might have had he not been willing to sacrifice popularity for victory.