Romney, Still Supremely Confident
In the Washington Examiner, Byron York has a fascinating after-action report:
They won't say it publicly -- they don't want to appear churlish or disrespectful on a night they took a serious beating -- but it's no exaggeration to say that even after losing the South Carolina primary to Newt Gingrich, members of Mitt Romney's circle find it absurd -- almost crazy -- that the former House speaker has even a ghost of a chance of becoming the Republican Party's presidential nominee.
Romney's circle has a point. With the Florida primary just days away, Newt Gingrich still lacks the big campaign organization and overflowing coffers he'll need to compete effectively in the fourth most populous state in the nation. Perhaps even more to point, the Romney campaign has been urging Florida's Republicans to vote early, and by some estimates as much as 30 percent of primary voters have already done so, casting their ballots when Romney remained dominant.
On the other hand, to quote Byron York once again, there's this:
Gingrich's campaign was also faster and more nimble than the Romney battleship. "There is a very strong contrast between the two campaign organizations," said Gingrich adviser (and former George W. Bush administration official) Kevin Kellems. "In military terms, it's speed versus mass. Newt Gingrich's operation, and Newt Gingrich as a man, has a great deal of speed -- intellectual speed, decisiveness. The Romney campaign is much more about money and size, having hired half of Washington D.C. And sometimes, speed beats mass."
It certainly did this time. In the next few days, there will be plenty of analysis attributing Gingrich's victory to other factors: his commanding performances in debate, his next-door advantage in South Carolina, and Romney's now-traditional difficulties in the state. But after all the talk of ground game and debate war, there's a simpler reason Gingrich won: On the stump, in town hall after town hall, across South Carolina, Gingrich has been a markedly better campaigner than Romney.
Next stop, Florida--and we shall see.
In the meantime, read Byron's article in full right here.
- Comment (60)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (3)
Comments:
Mar '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
I heard a totally groundless media rumor that after the SC primary, Gingrich and Romney and staffers met backstage. The transcript of the conversation:
Romney: The, uh, plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room.
Gingrich: No, no, no, boys, there's 2 "O's" in N00t.
Mar '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
This has been bothering me for a while.
When the Anointed One in the Maryland Senate Primary went down in defeat, the Elite departed controlled flight (AKA went ballistic). They heaped abuse on everyone and anyone that they perceived to be behind the "disaster" that was Christine O'Donnell. I understand all that: in the end, she wasn't very effective as a candidate. However, that begs the question "if Mike Castle was all that and a bag of chips, how did he lose?"
The same thing seems to apply here. People, especially people who go out and vote, don't seem to like "inevitable" all that much. If that is all you have, you don't have much at all.
I still don't have a dog in this fight -- I'm just watching the fight and hoping the winner of the preliminary goes on to win the final.
Sep '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Battleship Mitt just got sucked into the Battle of Salamis. Better luck in the Florida panhandle.
Feb '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
No doubt Gingrich already knows this, and it has helped to turn his illusions of grandeur into just grandeur, but "(s)ince 1980, every Republican candidate who won the South Carolina primary has gone on to capture the party nomination." http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-22/gingrich-triumph-in-south-carolina-primary-raises-stakes-for-florida-vote.html
Edited on January 22, 2012 at 8:09pmJul '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
The second to last sentence of the article states that Mitt's seasoned campaign staffers may not think Newt will play a deciding role in the campaign. Maybe so, I would counter that they would do well to see that Romney himself plays a deciding role in the campaign.
Dec '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Anyone want to recall what people were saying in 2008 about McCain the fighter pilot?
Newt's team needs to focus on keeping its advantages of nimbleness, agility and speed.
Jun '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
It's going to get interesting. FYI, here's a link to the primary schedule. The near term will be interesting. If Romney can hold Florida (which I would say is definitely in play), February could be a good month for Romney:
1-31 Florida
2-4 Nevada (caucus); Maine (caucus) (both good Romney territory)
2-7 Colo. (caucus); Minn. (caucus); Missouri (non-binding primary) (anyone have a feel for these?)
2-28 Az. and Mich. primaries (likely Romney)
3-6 Super-Tuesday (ten states)
My quick analysis: if Romney can re-group and win FL be a decent margin it makes it hard for Gingrich and Santorum, so FL is huge. If Gingrich and Santorum can hang on, the three weeks between 2-7 and 2-28 will give them a chance for fund-raising and for all candidates to try to re-define themselves.
Prediction: All four candidates will be in it through super-Tuesday (if Santorum gets squashed in FL, he could get out, but I think that's unlikely). We have an interesting two months ahead of us.
Dec '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Romney would probably be the best campaign manager on the planet, but he is a terrible politician. His inside baseball is amazing. He has lined up everything he needs to win except for a sellable product.
I will now return to my regular scheduled Romney Antipathy.
Edited on January 22, 2012 at 8:34pmDec '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
The early voting thing freaks me out.
I strongly believe we shouldn't be making it ever more convenient to vote.
Dec '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
tabula rasa:
Prediction: All four candidates will be in it through super-Tuesday (if Santorum gets squashed in FL, he could get out, but I think that's unlikely). We have an interesting two months ahead of us. · 8 minutes ago
If Santorum really gets squashed in Florida, as in down at 10 percent with Ron Paul, how does he raise the money to continue his campaign? I'm pretty sure in that event he would bow to reality.
Jan '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Montgomery v Patton?
Oct '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Peter Robinson
In the Washington Examiner, Byron York has a fascinating after-action report:
Newt connects. Romney does not.
Dec '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
I noted this in the York piece:
I think back to Patton blunting Rommel's attack in North Africa and yelling at the Panzers, "Rommel, you magnificent bastard! I read your book!"
Time for Mitt Rommel -- sorry, Mitt Romney -- to read Newt "Patton" Gingrich's book, if he wants to figure out how to counter his campaign. Or he could just continue to dismiss Newt's campaign as non-existent and watch as it marches over him.
Sep '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
We've been hearing for months how Mitt Romney's money and organization will trump rivals with less money and less organization. This more than anything is the basis for Mitt's presumed inevitability.
Despite all this, Newt Gingrich won handily in SC. If Newt wins in Florida--or even comes a close second, it won't mean that he's the best man to be the GOP nominee. But it will mean that Romney is an incredibly weak candidate.
If after spending all that money and building up all that campaign organization, Mitt is losing to Newt Gingrich--a man whose campaign flatlined twice!--it will NOT mean that GOP voters are stupid, as Jennifer Rubin and Charles Krauthammer seem to believe. It will mean that Mitt can't win the general election. He's been running as Mr. Good Enough, but he is not good enough.
Dec '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
"Governor, our computer analysis of the Newtian attack shows that there is a small vulnerability in our defenses. Shall I prepare the escape pod?"
"Evacuate the campaign? Now, in our hour of triumph?"
Dec '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Did you happen to catch this paragraph in the York piece?
Apr '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
John Walker
Peter Robinson
In the Washington Examiner, Byron York has a fascinating after-action report:
Newt connects. Romney does not. · 1 minute ago
Would you say that this was true in Iowa and New Hampshire? Why did Newt's connecting and superior campaign skills result in his coming, respectively, 4th place and 5th place?
This applies to Barone, too. He notes that there are excuses that helped (debates, back yard, Palin), but feels that the real reason was that Gingrich was simply better. Given that Gingrich was clearly not better elsewhere, it seems quite likely to me that he was better because this was his home turf. He's campaigned (and won) a bunch of elections, but they were all in the Georgia area (OK, all in Georgia). He's well practiced at working these crowds, and Washington crowds, and.... we'll see how he does further from home (again).
Oct '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
tabula rasa:
2-7 Colo. (caucus); Minn. (caucus); Missouri (non-binding primary) (anyone have a feel for these?)
· 20 minutes ago
Newt missed the filing deadline for Missouri, so that's out.
I don't think anyone has a natural advantage in Colorado or Minnesota, so those will be interesting to watch.
Sep '10
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Stuart Creque
Did you happen to catch this paragraph in the York piece?
Heh--yes, after I posted my comment. But it doesn't contradict my point. If Romney's organization is not the juggernaut we've been told it is, then he's an even worse candidate than I thought.
Jan '11
Re: Romney, Still Supremely Confident
Well, Florida has a little bit of everything, doesn't it?
Seems to me that the strongest asset for Romney is organization. And, organization is most important when you have to reach out to multiple constituencies.
So, I say that Florida is a Must-Win for Romney. If his organization can't win here, or gets beat by a more attractive "message" that Gingrich offers, then Romney has no raison d'etre. The whole logic behind electability and ground game and organization would fall apart if Romney loses Florida.
Therefore, count on it ... bet the house ... that those who want to stop Gingrich will pull out all the stops in Florida. If Obama's Gang has done all its planning to destroy Romney in the fall, count on it ... bet the house ... that they want Romney to win Florida now.
If Newt can survive ... and maybe even win Florida, it'll scare the wits out of all the political professionals. It'll threaten their plans, and their raison d'etre.
So you count on it ... bet the house ... that this will get nasty.
Edited on January 22, 2012 at 8:58pm