Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Posted this day on Rasmussen Reports:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 44% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
As expected, Romney is enjoying a modest bounce from the past week's Republican National Convention. He trailed the president by two when the convention began and is up by three today....It will take a few more days to fully measure the bounce. This update is based on nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were conducted before Romney’s speech to the convention Thursday night.
During the podcast last week, be it noted, Brother Rob predicted that the Convention would give Romney a seven-point bounce. Although I wasn't churlish enough to disagree with Rob out loud, I thought to myself that his estimate seemed remarkable optimistic. Silly me. The next round of polls will probably show that Rob was spot-on.
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Oct '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
When it comes to post-convention polls, it is the one after Charlotte that will really count. If the O gets no similar bounce then we need more balloons. OTOH, if he restores the pre-convention status-quo, then team Romney have some work ahead.
Pray for Obama Psalm 109:8
Jun '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
If the Dems have any sense of positivity in their Convention, Teh One will have a significant bounce this time next week. I'm trying to withhold despair or elation (the 2nd being more difficult, of course) until a day or two after the first debate.
(This necessarily ignores any major event or policy intervening. Most of the ups and downs between the DNC and the debates will be the result of some political circus stunt affecting a few hours of the news cycle)
Oct '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
I credit Clint.
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Hate to once again be an Eeyore, but this is just Rasmussen (and Rasmussen is deeply problematic; imo, it approaches being a Republican push-poll). Gallup showed Obama moving up in their track during the convention, and their head of polling said that Obama began doing better as the RNC went on. I can hardly understand how that is possible, but far more people saw the "fact check" crap than saw the low-rated speeches. Not that many people watched.
Reuters tracking poll showed a modest bounce during the convention, but it's already gone. Obama retook the lead on Saturday : http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901
Edited on September 2, 2012 at 1:29amMay '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
I'm predicting the bounce will be 8-10pts with about half of that coming from the DNC, which will actuall make Obama drop/slip 3-4 from the realization "is that all you got?"
Mar '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Is that a hockey stick I see to the far right on the red line?
Oh, wait - 'tis statistics.
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Steady on, wmartin. As of yesterday, even Gallup showed Romney one point ahead, 47-46, and today it only shows him trailing by one, 46-47.
May '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Come election day, it will be all about enthusiasm. They will try hard to whip some up, but no matter what it will be artificial and ineffective. Poor turnout on the left and solid turnout on the right will be the story on election day.
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Peter Robinson
Steady on, wmartin. As of yesterday, even Gallup showed Romney one point ahead, 47-46, and today it only shows him trailing by one, 46-47. · 0 minutes ago
Actually Gallup was even at 46-46 until Wednesday. Romney hasn't led since the end of last week; Obama has led four straight days. It's a 7-day track which means that Obama's lead is actually being pulled down by the even days still in the sample. Obama started doing better as our convention progressed.
My main worry is that we just got crushed by the bogus "fact-checking" nonsense. I could not believe how relentlessly negative the coverage was. Which is why the low viewership numbers are such a big problem. Undecided voters are seeing only clips and media criticism, and the lack of a bounce has me worried.
Jun '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Why in the heck would you hate that? Sheesh...
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Actually, I screwed up. After downloading the complete Gallup trend, I see that Romney did lead by a point on Monday and Tuesday. But that may make the last four days even more ominous; Romney has a few good days left in the sample but Obama reversed that as soon as our convention started. When Romney's good days drop out, Obama's lead will expand.
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Eeyore
Why in the heck would you hate that? Sheesh... · 4 minutes ago
No offense intended, of course....
May '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Plus, oil price is up, unemployment high, nothing positive on the economic front for Obama. Romney, now that the convention is over, is able to release his increasing cash advantage over Obama onto the airwaves. Obama has campaign and cash management issues, while Romney's has proven effective. And no poll shows the incumbent at 50%, which is a key point since he is well known and defined...further indicating Romney is in the drivers' seat as he introduces himself to voters.
It's early, but all signs point to Romney.
The race will increasingly be for women voters, I think.
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
wmartin: Hate to once again be an Eeyore, but this is just Rasmussen (and Rasmussen is deeply problematic; imo, it approaches being a Republican push-poll). Gallup showed Obama moving up in their track during the convention, and their head of polling said that Obama began doing better as the RNC went on. I can hardly understand how that is possible, but far more people saw the "fact check" crap than saw the low-rated speeches. Not that many people watched.
Reuters tracking poll showed a modest bounce during the convention, but it's already gone. Obama retook the lead on Saturday : http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901 · 41 minutes ago
Edited 34 minutes ago
Gallup now has Romney up by one -- and Gallup is polling registered voters, not those likely to vote. I think that you greatly underestimate the reliability of Rasmussen.
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Peter, landslide. Say it loud. It trips right off the tongue.
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Paul A. Rahe
Gallup now has Romney up by one -- and Gallup is polling registered voters, not those likely to vote. I think that you greatly underestimate the reliability of Rasmussen. · 5 minutes ago
Gallup does not have Romney up by one. Drudge posted the number incorrectly today (if that is where you got it from). Gallup has Obama at 47%, Romney at 46%. Obama has led for the last four days, which means he has had good polling days throughout the RNC (sort of a negative bounce for us).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
I hope Rasmussen is right, and Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos are wrong.
Nov '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
wmartin: Hate to once again be an Eeyore, but this is just Rasmussen (and Rasmussen is deeply problematic; imo, it approaches being a Republican push-poll). Gallup showed Obama moving up in their track during the convention, and their head of polling said that Obama began doing better as the RNC went on. I can hardly understand how that is possible, but far more people saw the "fact check" crap than saw the low-rated speeches. Not that many people watched.
Reuters tracking poll showed a modest bounce during the convention, but it's already gone. Obama retook the lead on Saturday : http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901 · 32 minutes ago
Edited 26 minutes ago
Wow, a push poll? I've heard it said before that Rasmussen has a bias towards Republicans, but I'm pretty sure that by itself doesn't make them push pollsters.
Nov '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Anecdote: I drove by one of the local union halls earlier. Tons of political signs up, but no Obama sign. I'm pretty sure I remember seeing Obama signs in that field in 2008.
It looks like Ohio is gonna be a real nail-biter.
Nov '10
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Don't put too much stock in this Rasmussen graphic, Peter. I've watched it daily for months now. It just goes up and down daily -- in fact, if you go back more often you'll see its current value change, sometimes dramatically, over the course of a day, 2 or 3 times -- it is updated "on the fly" as data comes in.
Not to say it's not reliable, only that single points on the graph mean little; they represent small samples.
To get a better idea of the essential information in it, "smooth" the curve over a period of months with your eye, and you'll see some worthwhile things.
First, a "sea change" around the beginning of March, after which Romney more or less consistently outscored him. With a few blips we have seen Romney's support oscillating around about 46 or 47%, whereas Obama's appears centered around about 44 or 45% -- a lead of about 2% for Romney. The trend data is pretty reliable.
I see Rasmussen called a "push poll" above. Nonsense. Like most people, Rasmussen has political preferences, which are obvious. But their polling data and analysis are on par with the best.
Apr '11
Re: Romney-Ryan, Up By Three (In Other Words, the Convention Worked)
Don't the unemployment numbers come out on the morning after Obama's speech? If those numbers aren't good, I can't imagine the Obama campaign getting a significant bounce.