Romney Pulls Ahead
According to Dick Morris, who is a problematic figure, but he's making some sense here:
with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
He concludes:
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.
Okay, yes: I'm a pessimist. And I know that bothers a lot of Ricochet members -- whose thoughts and views I have huge respect for -- but, well, that's me. On the other hand, there's lots here that's cheering.
So here's my offer: if we lose on Election Day, I'll spend the following 48 hours, like all of us, kicking the wall. If we lose, we'll all have to lock arms and figure out a way to win the country back.
But if we win, I'll deserve some punishment, right? Some kind of penance for being such a Debbie Downer? Something embarrassing but not physically painful (which rules out the mile-long spanking machine) or disgusting (which rules out nudity of any kind).
Suggestions for this are now welcome on the Member Feed. So if you're not a member, you've got to join to play.
And if you are a member, please: be gentle.
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Jun '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Punishment- Walk down Hollywood Blvd. holding a sign that says "My name is Rob Long and I love Dick Morris."
Feb '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
The National Review Post-Election Cruise cures bad election results and is a good venue for spiking the ball if it ends up well.
I am an optimist....and I will be correct if Americans are still Americans. If Obama wins, then there is a rising culture totally alien to that which made America great. That culture will not prosper and my contribution to it will be contagious pessimism.
Dec '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Aww... Rob; you don't deserve any worse than I do- an overly emphatic "I told you so!" (Which, btw, I'd be so delighted to receive!)
Mar '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
I've felt for the last few months that this election will be either the end of the Tea Party or the Republican Party. The Tea Party has more or less cast its lot in with the Republican party for this election. If Romney wins then the Tea Party gets folded into the Republican Party as their more "conservative wing". If Romney loses then the Tea Party breaks away having been burned by "trusting" the Republican apparatus.
Mar '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Dick Morris is a troubling person. Each time I see him on TV making prognostications I think of this.
That said, Mr. Long's punishment should Romney win is to write, ala Bart Simpson, "I no longer want Hope and Change" 1000 times on the blackboard.........
Of course, if he loses the blackboard will be sold by the Board of Education to pay for teachers pensions.......
Apr '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Dick Morris? The pundit who said the 2008 presidential election would be between Hillary & Condi? He doesn't exactly have a good record of predicitions. I'm always skeptical of his take.
Mar '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Punishment?? Remember the AWESOME gift Obama gave the queen- the ipod loaded with Obama speeches? I think you should listen to all these speeches in one sitting without stopping. Please take before and after pictures of yourself so we can document the physical effects of acute insanity.
Dec '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Or a non-stop video of the imposter queen- Michelle- hugging the genuine article. ;)
Edited on September 28, 2012 at 12:50amJul '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
"So here's my offer: if we lose on Election Day, I'll spend the following 48 hours, like all of us, kicking the wall. If we lose, we'll all have to lock arms and figure out a way to win the country back".
If we lose this election I will save up some money and dedicate my political energy to the Galt like destruction of the US government when the time is right to bring it all down.
Aug '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Morris has a point - here in Minnesota a recent Star Tribune newspaper poll showed Obama at only 48% - and this despite a +13% Dem advantage in the polling.
Now this doesn't necessarily mean that Romney will carry MN but it does show that Barry has a heck of a glass ceiling this year...
Edited on September 27, 2012 at 10:49pmJan '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Herbert Woodbery: Unfortunately, Dick Morris' prognostication record for the past decade is really poor. He predicted a GOP gain of 100 seats in 2010 among other things. Do I think the standard polls oversample Dems and are misleading? Yep, but I would not rely on Morris for solid analysis on what the real situation is
Thats an understatement, I can't think of any pundit with a poorer prediction record than Morris. · 2 hours ago
Morris, like most conservative pundits who work full-time promoting conservative ideas and causes (including Ricochet) will ride it out after the election.
They are like the talented surfer who always stays on top of the wave, however huge, and never allows himself to get caught off balance and rolled under the crushing wave.
Jun '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
DocJay:
If we lose this election I will save up some money and dedicate my political energy to the Galt like destruction of the US government when the time is right to bring it all down.
It'll be tough, Doc. The Government is set up in concentric layers like the Pentagon. They are pretty certain all the energies to destroy it will be consumed eliminating the outermost structures like "The Department of Internal Analysis Interim Division for Inter-Departmental Procedural Review Standards for Diversity and Accommodation in Union and Non-Union Non-DoD Procurement Processes." (...or something)
Finding a way to the core will be harder to find than the exhaust port on the Death Star.
May '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
C'mon he's GOT to get one right one of these years right? I mean the whole blow-smoke-up-our-butts thing and telling Hannity only what he wants to hear has to get old. You he'd want to nail an election Just ONCE to change it up and keep us on our toes.
Please, please let this be the time.
Jan '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
...and I forgot the punishment selection:
flying on a 747 (direct flight) from San Francisco to New York, sitting between Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Al Gore.
Jun '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Barbara Kidder: ...and I forgot the punishment selection:
flying on a 747 (direct flight) from San Francisco to New York, sitting between Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Al Gore.
We'll need to get Rob a TravelMate Chakra-Gard™ and a lot of Pepto.
Jul '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Eeyore, things will worsen steadily. It is a certainty.
Jul '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
You have to listen to the DVD that Obama gave to the Queen of England five times in a row.
Sep '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Only thing better would be a guest appearance by Rob on "Sullivan and Son" (say as a long-time friend of Sullivan Sr.), post-Election Day, talking smack to the most obnoxious Obama supporter in the bar. Funny, ironic, and politically incorrect.
Jun '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Rob you need to say at least 3 times on the podcast: "James you're right. You're always right. I should listen to you more James."