Romney Pulls Ahead
According to Dick Morris, who is a problematic figure, but he's making some sense here:
with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
He concludes:
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.
Okay, yes: I'm a pessimist. And I know that bothers a lot of Ricochet members -- whose thoughts and views I have huge respect for -- but, well, that's me. On the other hand, there's lots here that's cheering.
So here's my offer: if we lose on Election Day, I'll spend the following 48 hours, like all of us, kicking the wall. If we lose, we'll all have to lock arms and figure out a way to win the country back.
But if we win, I'll deserve some punishment, right? Some kind of penance for being such a Debbie Downer? Something embarrassing but not physically painful (which rules out the mile-long spanking machine) or disgusting (which rules out nudity of any kind).
Suggestions for this are now welcome on the Member Feed. So if you're not a member, you've got to join to play.
And if you are a member, please: be gentle.
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May '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
You have to read my screenplay.
Jus' kiddin' ;)
Jul '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
[Moved to the Member Feed for solidarity with Brother Long]
Edited on September 27, 2012 at 7:45pmRe: Romney Pulls Ahead
I like these, but this is a Member Feed conversation. I don't want everyone outside the family knowing what my punishment is. I'm shy.
Apr '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Probably because I am in Canada without a dog in the race, your comments are important to keep Groupthink from taking over the conservative politics. i liked the discussion where Peter Robinson spoke about how to take the consevative theory, economics, media, social culture out to a larger audience.
Now that is a great vision. just because we are conservative, does not mean rethinking the political platform.
I also enjoyed your visit to Delingpole's podcast or was that just a dream?
Feb '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Mitts going to win. Dick Morris can feel it in his toes.
Jun '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
According to Scott Rasmussen, if Romney fails to get elected, it will mean the end of the Republican party. To which I say good riddance. As far as I'm concerned, The Tea Party is the conservative party in waiting. Win or lose we need to march in Washington next year. Put the new president and congress on notice: you have two years to clean up the mess or be prepared to face primary challenges across the ticket.
Apr '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
50 lashes with a wet noodle.
Jul '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
A weekend listening to Debby Wasserman Schwartz up close and personal.
Aug '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
How about serenading the Richocet audience with a feel-good song on our podcast? "You are my sunshine," "Don't worry, be happy"? Even more humiliating, how about you making your own post-election mea culpa rap? Nothing as humilating as a middle aged white guy goin' gangsta...
Apr '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Hmm. Singing the theme from Cheers on the podcast a cappella for a month?
Aug '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
You have to host a members event in every state!
May '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Yes, and the most recent Ricochet Podcast was incredibly lame. It's like you guys only get your intelligence from the MSM. What's with you?
Sep '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
I'm pessimistic, too. This election is about culture not the economy because the barrier to ousting the current incompetent is embracing his nerdy opponent. And no one likes a nerd; not even nerds like nerds.
Seems to me that the DNC Convention bounce proved that most American voters would rather go four bases with a sweaty, used up pol like Clinton than face the realities of Obama's failures. So they're willing to bend over, grab their ankles and picture Slick Willy behind them to keep the fantasy of reasonably competent Democrat governance going while they lose their jobs, their homes, their pension savings, and all self-respect. OK, so be it. Democracy creates as many dangers as it postpones.
If we win, which I doubt, I propose that Rob Long's punishment should be to do his own taxes for the next three years. Ouch.
Edited on September 27, 2012 at 7:41pmSep '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Confinement with Debbie Wasserman Schultz was my suggestion too!
Do you think he'd EVER recover??
May '11
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Rush just said, with a tone of disgust, that the average conservative pundit is mired in negativity. Not sure if "average" describes you, Rob. But I've been on the edge of withdrawing my measly monthly-latte contribution to Ricochet; defeatism tends to be self-fulfilling, and plenty of Romney volunteers read Ricochet, as many have pointed out.
But thanks for the bargain, Rob. Fun to think of appropriate punishment! I'd settle for a heartfelt mea culpa and an "I let the troops down when the going got tough" speech, and an "I've learned my lesson."
Nov '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Pulls ahead? Or Polls ahead? They may not be the same thing.
I'm concerned about races further down the card, and the fact that it appears nobody's really watching. From 2010 the GOP has had a commanding lead in the lower house. But the momentum is toward the DNC candidates. Because nobody is reporting on the overall trend, I've had to dig through Gallup and Rasmussen data to find it -- and over 2 years the voter leaning on Congressional seats has gone from strongly R to a horserace.
Is there an assumption that that race is cut and dried? Neither Gallup nor Rasmussen, nor talking heads on the R or D side are making any fuss over it. My sense is that the Democrat-leaning commentators are watching the trend in their favour and quite happy for it to continue with stealth; if it became a public issue and the Tea Party got involved ... well everyone knows that's their strongest card.
Shouldn't we be paying attention?
Jul '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
1) Calendar note: the Day of Atonement was yesterday. The gates of heaven have closed for the year.
2) Pessimism is its own punishment.
3) It doesn't make you a bad person. Eeyore is a favorite character in Winnie the Pooh for lots of us.
4) But if you gotta do penance: Car trips from Santa Monica to Jacksonville with both candidates in a 1975 Fiat 128, followed by that weekend with DWS mentioned above. [redacted]
Edited on September 27, 2012 at 8:47pmApr '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Unfortunately, Dick Morris' prognostication record for the past decade is really poor. He predicted a GOP gain of 100 seats in 2010 among other things. Do I think the standard polls oversample Dems and are misleading? Yep, but I would not rely on Morris for solid analysis on what the real situation is.
Jun '10
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Rob Long:
Okay, yes: I'm a pessimist. And I know that bothers a lot of Ricochet members --
Not me, buddy! And also I - unlike so many snobs - think your use of the dash is cool beans.
My problem with Dick Morris is that he is excellent at picking out, among contradictory details swirling in the air, those which help make his point. And make no mistake, we are in a true "fog of (electoral) war": Bad sampling, Bradley effect, land lines/cell phones, tea-leaving past turnout models, some real conspiracies, the media forming a protective bubble, generations of lower-civic-information voters...everything.
If we win, I don't think you deserve any punishment. It would be like punishment for improperly identifying the species of a tree which whips past you in the middle of a tornado.
Of course, if the mob deems you worthy of punishment, I'll certainly need to receive the same...but double.
Edited on September 27, 2012 at 8:20pmApr '12
Re: Romney Pulls Ahead
Unfortunately, Dick Morris' prognostication record for the past decade is really poor. He predicted a GOP gain of 100 seats in 2010 among other things. Do I think the standard polls oversample Dems and are misleading? Yep, but I would not rely on Morris for solid analysis on what the real situation is
Thats an understatement, I can't think of any pundit with a poorer prediction record than Morris.