According to Dick Morris, who is a problematic figure, but he's making some sense here:
with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.
So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That’s the real state of play today.
Okay, yes: I'm a pessimist. And I know that bothers a lot of Ricochet members -- whose thoughts and views I have huge respect for -- but, well, that's me. On the other hand, there's lots here that's cheering.
So here's my offer: if we lose on Election Day, I'll spend the following 48 hours, like all of us, kicking the wall. If we lose, we'll all have to lock arms and figure out a way to win the country back.
But if we win, I'll deserve some punishment, right? Some kind of penance for being such a Debbie Downer? Something embarrassing but not physically painful (which rules out the mile-long spanking machine) or disgusting (which rules out nudity of any kind).
Suggestions for this are now welcome on the Member Feed. So if you're not a member, you've got to join to play.
And if you are a member, please: be gentle.