Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Richard Young ·
Sep 22, 2011 at 1:41pm
Polling released by Quinnipiac today demonstrate in stark numbers that Romney is more electable in a general election. Few would dispute that Florida is an important state for Republicans to carry if they want to dislodge Obama in 2012.
The poll has Perry leading Romney among Republicans by 6 points. However, when running against Obama in Florida the poll has Romney beating Obama by 7 points and Obama beating Perry by 2 points, i.e. among the general electorate Romney beats Perry by 9 points. Quite significant. It will be interesting to see if tonight’s debate in Florida widens or narrows that gap.
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May '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
This is a key reason I prefer Romney over Perry. Perry may be better on certain conservative issues, but I think he'd have a much harder time in the general election than Romney.
Dec '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Reformulation of the Buckley rule: nominate the least liberal candidate who is electable.
Dec '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Here's a better link to the poll. More troubling is that Obama is still up against specific candidates.
Edited on Sep 22, 2011 at 1:14pmMay '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
I guess I don't really buy the Buckley rule. There are too many variables in each election and in each candidate. Even if you just take those two variables, "conservative" and "electable", it doesn't work, because "electable" is on a sliding scale. Say Romney gets a 6 on "conservative" and an "8" on electable, while Perry gets a 7 for "conservative" and a 6 or 7 for electability. Then, too, the electability factor changes continually, depending on who's measuring it, events, circumstances, etc.
I prefer to say that it's not enough to consider a candidate's positions. We have to also consider his proven effectiveness in advancing the cause, his character, his history, electability, and so forth.
For instance, it makes a difference that Romney governed a deep blue state, while Perry governed a deep red one. That leads someone like me to suppose that Perry might turn out to be much weaker than he looks now, with Texas at his back...
Anyway, it's complicated.
Dec '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
katievs
Anyway, it's complicated. · Sep 22 at 1:28pm
Indeed. We musn't forget that Romney does not have a great record on actual electability. It's still very early. Either candidate could channel Dole or Reagan at any moment...
Oct '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
This is so depressing. Romney is this year's Bob Dole - unimpressive, a dullard but hey, it's HIS turn so let's let him run!
Mar '11
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
It is early, and Perry is not well known yet. I think these numbers will narrow.
And there is an enthusiasm gap: if you consider who will actually come out to vote, Perry will inspire much more enthusaism from the Right. Romney will just get anti-Obama votes.
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Are we sure this isn't just a "Romney Better Known in Florida" headline in drag? Mitt has been running for president and more or less living in Florida for what, six years now? Meanwhile Rick Perry has been on the national stage for about a month.
I'm going to play wait and see.
Edited on Sep 22, 2011 at 2:31pmOct '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
One of the problems with the “Buckley rule” is that it's only really applicable in retrospect. I'm sure most mainstream Republicans in 1976 considered Ford more electable than Reagan, considering his incumbency, moderate position, and midwest origin. And yet, look at the electoral map: had Reagan demolished Carter in the 1976 debates (as he did in 1980) and flipped Texas (yes, kiddies, Texas went for Carter, and California for Ford) along with one other southern state, the Reagan revolution would have begun in 1976, not 1980, and we'd probably be dealing with a liberalised Iran as a pillar of stability in southwest Asia instead of an imminently nuclear nutcase rogue state.
One must consider not just how the legacy media frame the debate but the extent that candidates can, both by the content of their message and their communication skills, define “electable” on their own terms.
Dec '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Actually, that poll shows Perry has risen from a 5 point deficit, to within the margin of error. I think the previous week's results were 49-44, Obama.
Dec '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Sometimes trajectory and velocity are more important than position. We'll see if this is one of those times.
Edited on Sep 22, 2011 at 2:45pmJun '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Ken doll
Nov '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Jun '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
He's a Mormon, so I'm not sure that's an insult. He might say, "thank you."
Aug '11
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
It's so early to tell! Is it too early?
Perry's talk about social security, and the way other people talk about Perry's talk about social security could be the difference in the 2 points on the poll. Also, 2 points seems like a nice margin of error for a Perry Obama vote in Florida.
I'm hoping Perry becomes more electable against Obama. I really want to be a Perry fan. I'm sorta a Perry fan. I'm busy reading other things, but I do plan on reading "Fed Up!" especially after the Stanley Kurtz review I saw at NRO.
If it helps, I live in Boca, Allen West's district actually; and from what I saw in Boca and in Ft Lauderdale and in Hollywood, Perry can probably capture some very vocal, very local support. I didn't see a lot of liberals campaigning against West or Rubio on the street corners...
Sep '11
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
People vote based on feelings.
A President Ryan, Giuliani, or Christie would make me feel wonderful. But these information-rich, "hot" candidates with wonk-appeal are a tougher sell to average, emotion-driven, mushy moderates. Maybe it's okay they're not running.
Mitt makes us all feel "shrug, yeah, okay, certainly better than what we've got." He's the "generic Republican", the walking icon on traffic lights and road signs referenced by Stephen Colbert. No one gets excited about that cool, loosely defined cat, because he's designed to be identifiable for the broadest possible audience.
McLuhan was right. In an age of information overload, few can master all the details. People want a candidate to recognize the same patterns they see, and propose solutions in broad terms. Average voters project themselves easily into "cool" media personae, and reject anyone too hot and negative. Obama ran as a cool candidate, but it was an act which fell apart when he had to govern, and couldn't because of his ideology.
Romney is a genuinely cool customer. His electabilty across a wide spectrum of voters could pull the Republican Congress to a landslide victory, resulting in very conservative governance.
Nov '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Apr '11
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Many polls, opinion pieces and articles are showing Romney gaining on Perry and Romney doing better against Obama. In addition new dirt is constantly being dug up and reported on Perry (well, some people consider it reporting anyway). It looks to me like the media is trying to pick the Republican candidate. The question is, will they succeed.
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
I doubt that any Republican will have a hard time in the general election.
Jul '10
Re: Romney More Electable than Perry in Florida
Kearney: People vote based on feelings.
....
Romney is a genuinely cool customer. His electabilty across a wide spectrum of voters could pull the Republican Congress to a landslide victory, resulting in very conservative governance. · Sep 22 at 3:28pm
Republicans don't vote for "cool." We like excitement through inspiration and vision; Romney ain't it.
Also, Romney will have Those Who stayed Home in '08 stay in '12. McCain 2.0.