Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
As Paul noted below, National Journal shows a nationwide tie between Obama and Romney. NPR shows Obama with a 7-point lead. Polls are fun!
Let's look at all the major polls that we woke up to this morning (and if you're in some of these states mentioned below, give us some feedback on how things are going!):
National Journal Obama 47, Romney 47 Tie
NPR Obama 51, Romney 44 Obama +7
Florida: NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 47, Romney 46 Obama +1
Virginia: NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 48, Romney 46 Obama +2
Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist Obama 51, Romney 43 Obama +8
Virginia Senate - Allen vs. Kaine NBC/WSJ/Marist Kaine 49, Allen 44 Kaine +5
Ohio Senate - Mandel vs. Brown NBC/WSJ/Marist Brown 50, Mandel 41 Brown +9
Florida Senate - Mack vs. Nelson NBC/WSJ/Marist Nelson 52, Mack 41 Nelson +11
Generic Congressional Vote NPR Republicans 45, Democrats 48 Democrats +3
Direction of Country NPR Right Direction 39, Wrong Track 55 Wrong Track +16
And while many of us are focused on what we might hear from Romney tonight, this RNC ad reminds us of Obama's rhetoric the last time we were at the dance.
The use of Bill Clinton at the end is ... effective.
As Rick Wilson said, live by the Bubba, die by the Bubba.
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Nov '10
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
So you didn't ask about North Carolina, but I will report the following yard signs observed on my drive to work in Durham, one of the bluest corners of the state:
Make of this what you will.
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
I would love to know the Republican-Democrat weighting of the various NBC/WSJ/Marist polls. And are they know registered-voter polls or likely-voter polls?
Jul '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
Another month like September, and we'll be inaugurating President Romney in 2013. I think October will be "worse" for Mitt than September.
Gotta go... I have cases of Champagne to order.
Jun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
I believe I read somewhere that the National Journal poll that has them tied actually has a D+7 oversample.
If they have to oversample Dems by that much to achieve a tie, Obama is in serious trouble.
Apr '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
Mollie, your article headings get across so much.
Apr '11
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
I would cheer...but what the hell is up with Ohio? Another poll with a huge Obama lead?
I don't see us making up enough ground to win Ohio, and I have a hard time seeing us winning without it...
If the national polls tighten further, I assume swing states will follow and perhaps that will save us.
Jun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
wmartin: I would cheer...but what the hell is up with Ohio? Another poll with a huge Obama lead?
I don't see us making up enough ground to win Ohio, and I have a hard time seeing us winning without it...
If the national polls tighten further, I assume swing states will follow and perhaps that will save us. · 1 minute ago
Danger! Danger, Will Robinson!
Look at the numbers closely.
They have a D+5 oversample, and when you get to "Strong Democrat" vs "Strong Republican" the oversample switches to D+6!
They also overpolled the Cincinnati area, and we know that big cities are more likely to be Democrat strongholds.
There's quite a few reasons to be highly skeptical of this Ohio poll.
Jul '10
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
The polls are LV. Interestingly the OH poll has a 38-28 party split.
Edit: No those were the Sept numbers. The split is 36-31 like CW says.
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 4:45pmJun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
Palaeologus
The polls are LV. Interestingly the OH poll has a 38-28 party split. I guess the margin of error is in one direction only. · 0 minutes ago
Sorry, Pal, you're looking at the September 2012 numbers, not the October 2012. Oct is also oversampled, but by only 5 points.
If we're gonna scrutinize the polls, let us at least do so accurately.
May '11
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
http://www.npr.org/2012/09/29/162019588/ohio-county-a-historic-predictor-of-states-vote
“Wood County, Ohio has successfully predicted every election since 1960 except 1976. Wood County has been called “a microcosm of Ohio and even a microcosm of the United States”. The county is evenly divided among D’s, R’s an I’s.
In 2008 Obama took this county by getting more absentee ballot requests early = 5491/4004
As of yesterday, the Republicans are leading 33% to 31% over the Democrats in the early absenteen ballot requests”
I have set up a spreadsheet tracking absentee ballot requests in Ohio. You can see major GOP improvement in Wood County and most other counties.
Apr '11
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
They don't weight for party id at all. Most pollsters find Rasmussen's wighting practices to be very dubious.
Apr '11
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
ConservativeWanderer
wmartin: I would cheer...but what the hell is up with Ohio? Another poll with a huge Obama lead?
I don't see us making up enough ground to win Ohio, and I have a hard time seeing us winning without it...
If the national polls tighten further, I assume swing states will follow and perhaps that will save us. · 1 minute ago
Danger! Danger, Will Robinson!
Look at the numbers closely.
They have a D+5 oversample, and when you get to "Strong Democrat" vs "Strong Republican" the oversample switches to D+6!
They also overpolled the Cincinnati area, and we know that big cities are more likely to be Democrat strongholds.
There's quite a few reasons to be highly skeptical of this Ohio poll. · 59 minutes ago
Wasn;t Ohio D+8 in 2008? If so, D+5 this year would be about right. And even if their sample were lower than that, it's not gonna make up an 8 point gap.
Jun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
wmartin
ConservativeWanderer
wmartin: I would cheer...but what the hell is up with Ohio? Another poll with a huge Obama lead?
I don't see us making up enough ground to win Ohio, and I have a hard time seeing us winning without it...
If the national polls tighten further, I assume swing states will follow and perhaps that will save us. · 1 minute ago
Danger! Danger, Will Robinson!
Look at the numbers closely.
They have a D+5 oversample, and when you get to "Strong Democrat" vs "Strong Republican" the oversample switches to D+6!
They also overpolled the Cincinnati area, and we know that big cities are more likely to be Democrat strongholds.
There's quite a few reasons to be highly skeptical of this Ohio poll. · 59 minutes ago
Wasn;t Ohio D+8 in 2008? If so, D+5 this year would be about right. And even if their sample were lower than that, it's not gonna make up an 8 point gap. · 3 minutes ago
Oversampling urban areas is another way to introduce skew.
Jun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
wmartin
ConservativeWanderer
Danger! Danger, Will Robinson!
Look at the numbers closely.
They have a D+5 oversample, and when you get to "Strong Democrat" vs "Strong Republican" the oversample switches to D+6!
They also overpolled the Cincinnati area, and we know that big cities are more likely to be Democrat strongholds.
There's quite a few reasons to be highly skeptical of this Ohio poll. · 59 minutes ago
Wasn;t Ohio D+8 in 2008? If so, D+5 this year would be about right. And even if their sample were lower than that, it's not gonna make up an 8 point gap. · 5 minutes ago
And Ohio was Obama +4.6 in 2008. I don't think he grabbed nearly 4% of the GOP vote in Ohio. So a 5% skew is out of the ballpark.
May '10
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
Why does anyone care? Polls, at best, are a device to give people who actually know nothing something to talk about. And having done so to have increased the actual store of knowledge by zero.
Oct '10
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
Some of us have American Idol. Some of us have Election Polls. ;)
Jun '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
J. D. Fitzpatrick
Some of us have American Idol. Some of us have Election Polls. ;) · 1 minute ago
Don't forget baseball!
Oct '10
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
ConservativeWanderer
J. D. Fitzpatrick
Some of us have American Idol. Some of us have Election Polls. ;) · 1 minute ago
Don't forget baseball! · 3 minutes ago
Well, I suppose the list could go on ...
Jul '12
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
J. D. Fitzpatrick
ConservativeWanderer
J. D. Fitzpatrick
Some of us have American Idol. Some of us have Election Polls. ;) · 1 minute ago
Don't forget baseball! · 3 minutes ago
Well, I suppose the list could go on ... · 13 minutes ago
And Seinfeld re-runs
Nov '11
Re: Romney Had Such A Bad September, He's Now Tied With Obama
I run my own informal poll that gives me reason to doubt the leads projected for Obama. The number of Obama 2012 bumperstickers I've seen is slightly lower than the number of Romney bumperstickers I've seen. That tells me Obama's in real trouble.
Granted I live in Texas, but this is the first time since I've been paying attention to these things that I've seen so few Democratic candidate bumperstickers this close to election.
NB: Texas or not there were tons of stickers for Obama in '08, easily outweighing the McCain/Palin. So take it for what it's worth.