Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Reader Kenneth asks:
| Kenneth: Claire, I'm interested in your opinion: what is Turkey's strategic value to the United States? · Aug 16 at 2:57pm |
This is a good question. I had dinner not long ago with someone in the US foreign policy establishment who asked me just this question. His point: "Okay, we lose Turkey--a tragedy for them, but does it really make a difference to us?"
I think the best way to explain this is with a thought exercise. Let's start with a map.
And let's also start by reviewing the history of this region, visually.
Now, think about the following:
- Turkey is right in the middle of the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Aegean. As that visual review of the region's history shows, the route invaders take to go from West to East and East to West is right through Anatolia--pretty much every time.
- Turkey is the energy bridge between the Middle East and Europe. Three quarters of the world's proven oil and gas reserves are in this neighborhood. Particularly, how do you get oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian region to Europe without going through Iran or Russia? Only one way. (Yes, it is a big strategic problem for the United States if the lights go off in Europe.)
- The Black Sea and Caspian littoral are all that stands between Europe and the craziest countries in the world. (cf: Yes, it is a big strategic problem for the United States if the lights go off in Europe.)
- Turkey has accumulated significant intelligence capabilities in Central Asia, the Caspian and Caucasus--if you think Americans can gather intelligence just as well on their own in the Turkic-speaking world, you've never tried to master a Ural-Altaic language. The Turks also have considerable experience with counter-terrorism and guerilla warfare.
- Turkey has one of the largest standing armies in the world and the second largest in NATO; it can deploy a sizable Army Corps to conduct joint operations at short notice. It can conduct air assault operations with a lift capability of up to six battalions at a time, day and night.
- The Incirlik air base was a crucial staging ground for Operations Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom, and is believed to house about 90 American B61 nuclear bombs.
- The Turkish Air Force operates one of the largest combat aircraft fleets in NATO.
- Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia are the shortest land and air transport routes to the Middle East.
- Turkey is sitting on most of the water in this region. Turkey can shut off the water to countries on its border in a heartbeat, and has done so. Just ask Syria; they remember.
- Turkey controls the Turkish Straits and could easily control the Suez Canal and thus maritime traffic in the region.
- Turkey is the only secular democracy (however imperfect) in the Islamic world.
Now, the thought exercise. Consider the prospect of an all-out regional war sparked by an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Not unimaginable, as we've all been saying.
Play out the whole war in your mind: First, imagine it with Turkey as a solid ally of the United States. Now play it out imagining Turkey as implacably hostile. Ricochet readers are invited to game this out step-by-step.
After you've finished gaming it out, report back.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Sounds to me like Turkey is more of a potential trouble-maker than an ally. They can impede our military access in the region, cut off supply of Central Asian oil and gas to Europe and - although it would seem unlikely - bring their military forces to bear against our interests in the case of a generalized conflict in the Middle East. Much mischief, indeed, but how would that benefit Turkey?
What I think most likely is that the current Turkish leadership wish to shuck off the ill-fitting garment of Ataturk secularism and restore a bit of the glory of the Ottoman era, as first among equals in the Islamic world. In the short term, their partnership in the anti-Israeli bloc would be welcomed, no doubt. But in the bigger picture, neither the Persians or the Arabs are likely to welcome resurgent Turkish dominance in the Middle East.
Claire?
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
I don't much care about the lights going out in Europe.
But I am deeply concerned about maintaining our supply of Turkish Taffy.
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Right, Kenneth, time for you to buy my book to understand Why the Continent's Crisis is America's, Too. The lights go off in Europe, we've got a big problem.
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire, what are some reasonable changes America might make to our diplomacy with Turkey to strengthen (or regain and solidify) our alliance?
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
I was being light-heated, Claire. OK with you if I buy it in the Kindle edition?
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
There's an election coming up. We need to make it clear to the Turkish people that we are not impressed with the direction the AKP is taking their country. We need to speak to them directly--to the Turkish people, not their leaders--and explain why. Then it's up to them to choose. I think if the facts are put to them clearly -- keep this up and you're on your own against the PKK, on your own against Russia, on your own with Iran, and obviously on your own with Israel. Your best best friend in this region will be Hamas, which is not exactly a strategic trade-up in the world. I think many Turks would say to themselves, "You know, that doesn't seem like a great deal."
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Hardcover, Kenneth, one copy for every member of the family!
(But kindle is nice, thank you.)
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
In a nation where YouTube is banned? I expect all media are tightly controlled. Am I wrong?
Other than media, I'm not sure how we speak directly to the Turkish people aside from starting a tourism campaign and offering travellers a dossier with every purchase of a ward against the Evil Eye.
Aug '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire
Unfortunately the secular alarm clock hasnt gone off or no one heard it when it did and the military failed to bring things back into check. Why not ?
Is this,like Pakistan, another case of the Islamists romancing the military rather than the nomenklatura ?
Aaron's right, how would we get a message through when the focus of the technology is to smuggle in an image of Lady Gaga instead of something of importance ? Who do we need to talk to ? The women that Hamas will cover or the young men who they will use as cannon fodder ?
What do you think ? Have you checked Craigslist for Baku rentals ?
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Pretty compelling stuff, and no doubt true. Also, most of the points would apply almost as well if you replaced "Turkey" with a reasonably-goverend "Iraq" or with "Iran".
Flownover, read this Claire-recommended piece by Michael Rubin to see how Erdogan has undercut the secular military and other formerly healthy institutions:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/turkey--from-ally-to-enemy-15464
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Aaron Miller
In a nation where YouTube is banned? I expect all media are tightly controlled. Am I wrong?
Other than media, I'm not sure how we speak directly to the Turkish people aside from starting a tourism campaign and offering travellers a dossier with every purchase of a ward against the Evil Eye. · Aug 17 at 12:23pm
I've got an article about the state of the Turkish media coming out next week in Standpoint, I'll link to it here. It's controlled in subtle ways; it's not North Korea by any means. If Obama were to deliver a major address to the Turkish people, it would be reported everywhere. Better still, were he to do what Cameron did and address the Parliament--but give rather a different speech. A very respectful one, but one that just lays out the reality: The path you're on does not lead you anywhere you want to go.
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire,
So Obama is our best hope to reverse Turkey's slide into Islamism?
Doomed.
Doomed.
By the way, how much resentment is there in Turkey now that they realize their chances of being admitted into the EU are probably zilch?
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire Berlinski: Reader Kenneth asks:
Now, the thought exercise. Consider the prospect of an all-out regional war sparked by an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Not unimaginable, as we've all been saying.
Play out the whole war in your mind: First, imagine it with Turkey as a solid ally of the United States. Now play it out imagining Turkey as implacably hostile. Ricochet readers are invited to game this out step-by-step.
Well, I'm not remotely qualified to game those scenarios, but I'll take a stab at first moves.
1) The Israeli strike is presumed to be successful.
a) Turkey is an ally
-the Saudis denounce it and smile
-the Iraqis denounce it and smile
-the Turks, the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Kuwaitis, & various emirates... well, you get the point.
- Hezbollah & Hamas become dramatically more aggressive
b) Turkey is an enemy
-the Saudis denounce it and smile
-the Iraqis denounce it and smile
-the Turks, the Egyptians, the Jordanians, the Kuwaitis, & various emirates... well, you get the point.
- Hezbollah & Hamas become dramatically more aggressive
If the strike is presumed to fail, that's a completely different beast.
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire Berlinski
I've got an article about the state of the Turkish media coming out next week in Standpoint, I'll link to it here. · Aug 17 at 7:50pm
I look forward to it.
Assuming that Kenneth is right that Obama isn't terribly motivated or isn't sharp enough to direct a good speech toward the Turkish people, then who might be a viable alternative? Would it even have to be a politician? Or could some musician or TV personality gain the necessary attention and at least get Turks wondering?
I'm sure Sajak would be happy to slip a cryptic note onto the Wheel for his next episode.
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Kenneth:
By the way, how much resentment is there in Turkey now that they realize their chances of being admitted into the EU are probably zilch? · Aug 17 at 8:26pm
Actually, I think quite a few Turks are now looking at the EU--and at Greece in particular--and thinking, "Maybe if they beg we'll let them into Turkey."
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Yeah, just keep gaming it out after "you get the point." It's really not cheering.
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Aaron Miller
Assuming that Kenneth is right that Obama isn't terribly motivated or isn't sharp enough to direct a good speech toward the Turkish people, then who might be a viable alternative? Would it even have to be a politician? Or could some musician or TV personality gain the necessary attention and at least get Turks wondering?
I'm sure Sajak would be happy to slip a cryptic note onto the Wheel for his next episode. · Aug 17 at 9:19pm
Kenneth is right. Actually, a celebrity might really get people's attention. I'm not sure Pat Sajak is well-enough known here (sorry, Pat), but the Turks would be thrilled if Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt came to talk to them about America's love for Turkey and the future of the strategic relationship, particularly if Angelina delivered some of her remarks in Turkish, and if both of them displayed an astonishing breadth of knowledge about Turkey's past, its problems, and its culture. Now, I recognize that this isn't likely. But wouldn't it be terrific if we had celebrities who saw it as their responsibility to use their fame for purposes like this?
Edited on Aug 17, 2010 at 10:30pmMay '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Let me know if you need a briefer for your celebrity-propaganda initiative, Claire.
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire Berlinski
But wouldn't it be terrific if we had celebrities who saw it as their responsibility to use their fame for purposes like this? · Aug 17 at 10:28pm
Actually, it would really be terrific if we had more non-Ricochet celebrities who could speak English coherently, let alone Turkish, and think rationally as well.
I guess we'll never see a patriotic time like 1941-42 again.
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk: Turkey's Strategic Value to the United States
Claire Berlinski
Yeah, just keep gaming it out after "you get the point." It's really not cheering. · Aug 17 at 10:20pm
No, it's not. I'm not flippant about the potential fallout from an Israeli strike. It is obviously a big deal. I just doubt that the Turkish role is so significant. More to the point, I highly doubt Turkey can be influenced before the fact.
I believe Turkey's response would be loud, but the same could be said of all majority Muslim countries. The strike's success, or lack thereof, is the marker that matters.
I think "strong ally Turkey" won't be such a strong ally on the heels of a failed strike. I also think that "implacable enemy Turkey" won't be so intransigent following success.
Perhaps I'm presuming too much realpolitik and inappropriately discounting goodwill. Perhaps I'm simply wrong. Either way, it won't be the last time.