Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
I'm rushing out the door to catch the plane to come to see you, Ricochet members of California, at the special Rico-Suave members-only Ricochet gathering tonight. But I just wanted to call your attention to something very odd.
Do you remember my secret intelligence informant, "Timothy Thompson?" He's still in his undisclosed location, but a few hours ago, he sent me a message about this article by Selig Harrison, published last week in The New York Times:
While the world focuses on the flood-ravaged Indus River valley, a quiet geopolitical crisis is unfolding in the Himalayan borderlands of northern Pakistan, where Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.
The entire Pakistan-occupied western portion of Kashmir stretching from Gilgit in the north to Azad (Free) Kashmir in the south is closed to the world, in contrast to the media access that India permits in the eastern part, where it is combating a Pakistan-backed insurgency. But reports from a variety of foreign intelligence sources, Pakistani journalists and Pakistani human rights workers reveal two important new developments in Gilgit-Baltistan: a simmering rebellion against Pakistani rule and the influx of an estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army.
China wants a grip on the region to assure unfettered road and rail access to the Gulf through Pakistan. It takes 16 to 25 days for Chinese oil tankers to reach the Gulf. When high-speed rail and road links through Gilgit and Baltistan are completed, China will be able to transport cargo from Eastern China to the new Chinese-built Pakistani naval bases at Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara, just east of the Gulf, within 48 hours.
That's interesting enough, but here's the part that shook me out of my worries about whether I'd have time to do laundry before we meet tonight. "Timothy Thompson" says he's hearing persistent and credible rumors of nuclear-capable Chinese IRBM missiles entering the Gilgit region. His sources in India, he says, are calling this a South Asian Cuban missile crisis.
True? Who knows? I'm running it up the flagpole to see what salutes. If it turns out to be true, well, you heard it first from "Timothy Thompson"--on Ricochet.
See you all tonight at the West Coast command-and-control center. Bring your maps of Pakistan and your pushpins.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
If we're talking Risk, the first thing to ascertain is whether China has fortified Kamchatka. If so, the US doesn't have much of a prayer in stopping them from running amok in the Subcontinent.
But seriously, the idea of the Chinese having a shortcut to Mideast oil is not necessarily a bad thing. It reduces traffic through the Straits of Malacca, traditionally pirate-infested waters. This would reduce the burden on the US Seventh Fleet, allowing it to focus more energy on the much more real threat of China's budding bluewater navy in the Pacific, and also takes some slack off the ASEAN nations, which are still kicking the ball around on cooperation in securing the Straits.
However, it is a huge problem if this "South Asian Cuban missile crisis" is a reality. No comment on that one; theorizing, conspiracy or otherwise, isn't my thing.
Jun '10
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
I traveled the Srinigar-Kargil-Leh road by bus about two decades ago. Things have changed, but I'm qualified at least to talk about the geography of the region. For starters, if by "high speed" anyone is thinking about bullet trains through the Himalayas, forget it. Anything that moves faster than a pack mule in these mountains is considered high speed. The ability to span steep chasms and penetrate mountains with tunnels is a feat of engineering that would challenge even the Swiss. I don't doubt that it's being done in some manner, but I'm highly dubious about the efficacy.
My second thought is that such a structure will have to be defended. This is an area so rugged that a squad of men could blow the tracks at any choke point and keep a train pinned down for weeks with ordinary small arms. I doubt the locals regard the Chinese with anything but antipathy. The hill people will guard their autonomy with everything it takes. If the Chinese treatment of Uighurs is any indication, they Chicoms won't feel constrained when the shooting starts. My bets are with the locals.
May '10
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
I suspect that this is purely action by two parties to try to freak out their mutual enemy (India).
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
Slightly off-topic, but has anyone noticed the big yawn regarding the floods in Pakistan?
The Haitian earthquake probably got 100 times the news coverage.
Hate to say it, but I think most of the world now sees Pakistan as a squalid, nasty, hopeless mess and they simply...do...not...care.
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
Kenneth: has anyone noticed the big yawn regarding the floods in Pakistan? [...]
Hate to say it, but I think most of the world now sees Pakistan as a squalid, nasty, hopeless mess and they simply...do...not...care.
Yawn at your peril:
Re: Ricochet Risk, Asia Edition
I noticed it.