Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
The results are in from the latest Ricochet Center of Gravity poll (Feb. 9 - 11), with 580 of you responding (compared with 644 in our last poll). Top-line results:
Nominee preference
Newt Gingrich is down; Rick Santorum is up. Mitt Romney continues to make a strong, steady showing.
Opinion trends
Perhaps Santorum is still in his honeymoon phase, but he's the only one to show a net positive shift in generic opinion over the last six months (self-assessed shift, as opposed to one that's measured). Gingrich suffers on this dimension the most, followed by Romney. A majority of respondents reported either no shift or no opinion about Ron Paul.
Hypothetical General Election
Among respondents, Santorum would get 48% of the vote in a hypothetical general election with all four Republicans plus Obama on the ballot. Romney would come in second with 34%, Gingrich third at 14%, and Paul fourth at 5% (totals to 101% due to rounding).
Santorum also wins if you add up the first, second, and third place votes.
If Santorum was not available, then 52% of Santorum's erstwhile voters would select Romney, 42% Gingrich, and 6% Paul.
13% of you would vote for Obama before you'd vote for at least one of the Republican candidates. Ron Paul appears to cause the most concern, with 9% voting for Obama instead.
HIGH-LEVEL TABLES
- Comment (10)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments :
Apr '11
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
check the math on the top three graph. If the numbers representing the divisions of the bars is correct, Romney has more votes.
Jun '10
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
What if Gingrich dropped out, would his supporters go to Santorum or Romney?
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
Thank you! The labels on the Santorum and Romney first place picks were switched. They've now been corrected.
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
Joseph Stanko
What if Gingrich dropped out, would his supporters go to Santorum or Romney? · 23 minutes ago
70% of them would go to Santorum, 18% to Romney, and 12% to Paul.
Dec '10
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
The Logo: The results are in from the latest Ricochet Center of Gravity poll (Feb. 9 - 11), with 580 of you responding (compared with 644 in our last poll). Top-line results:
Nominee preference
Newt Gingrich is down; Rick Santorum is up. Mitt Romney continues to make a strong, steady showing.
I would characterize Romney's showing in this poll as fairly steady. However, since it's not monotonically increasing and at only one point shows him leading all other challengers, I wouldn't characterize it as strong. At least he is only fading slowly, as opposed to fading fast or crashing hard.
Apr '11
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
This pole though is highly baiased. Ricochet members are far more conservative on average than most Republicans.
Jun '10
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
The data we have from the Ricochet poll correlates fairly well with national polls. Santorum is up, Gingrich down, with Romney and Paul pretty much flat-lining. Now we need to ask "why?" I'll offer my interpretation for what it's worth, but I'd like to see further polling that probes the reasons for the shift. Anyway . . .
Santorum is up because a) he's doing better in the debates, b) he is the last not-Romney still standing, c) he's perceived as a genuine conservative, and d) the base doesn't regard his social conservatism as a negative.
Gingrich is down because Romney's negative attacks have convinced people that Newt has too much personal baggage. Fair or not this is the popular perception.
Romney is flat-lining because he can't convince the base he's a genuine conservative. I suspect that as long as there's a plausible alternative, Romney's numbers won't move despite claims that he's the most electable.
What say you, brothers and sisters?
Jul '10
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
I'm pretty sure that Gingrich is down because he lost.
He lost. There is no more Newt animate zombie, just the bloated, floating, irrelevant carcass. He's Baron Harkonnen.
I don't suppose the ABRs will mind though, since being an ABR means never having to say you're sorry.
Can't wait til they pitch Ron Paul.
Edited on Feb 13 at 9:42pmJan '11
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
So, 10.9% of Ricochet would vote for Obama before voting for Ron Paul. And then there's another some 3% that have Obama as either there 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choices. I'd be really interested in hearing the rationale for this behavior. Perhaps the next poll will eliminate Obama as a choice and instead put "third party candidate" so that I can think happier thoughts about who I could be potentially be conversing with around here going forward.
Re: Ricochet Poll Results: Santorum Up, Gingrich Down
Not that it takes away from your point, but only 9.5% would vote for Obama versus Ron Paul. It's impossible to see this from the published tables; you have to drill down another level.