Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Claire Berlinski, Ed. ·
December 16, 2011 at 4:44pm
Today's the day. Michael's on the West Coast, so I don't know what time he'll be joining us, precisely, but welcome, Michael.
Michael, to open the conversation--does it seem to you that the Americans who were not there understand, generally, what happened in Iraq? If not, in what way are they most seriously misunderstanding the history of American involvement there?
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Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
The relationship between Iraqi and Iranian Shias is, as Liz Sly ably reports, far rockier than it sometimes appears from a distance.
Majorities in both Iran and Iraq are Shias, but they have only been bound to each other by sect for a few hundred years. Arabs and Persians have been enemies for far longer than a few hundred years, since before Islam even existed.
Iraq’s prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is sometimes described as an Iranian stooge, but I don’t buy it. I just don’t. Middle Eastern leaders routinely have relationships with others they detest. Never forget that Maliki, who is a Shia, sent Iraqi Shias into battle alongside Americans against Iranian-sponsored Shia militias. This was not the behavior of a stooge, lackey, vassal, satrap, or tool.
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
On even-numbered days, yes. On odd numbered days, no.
Sep '11
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
One more question. What is the central core of Islamism or Islamofascism (the ideology espoused by Al Qaeda and similar groups)? To what extent is it the result of a strange amalgam of Western imports (like fascism and Communism) with some nods to Islamic traditions and practices? Or is it more firmly grounded in Islam itself? I recall a long interview with Paul Berman on your site where you discussed his most recent book--but perhaps you talked about this with him as well. Thanks again.
Apr '11
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Michael,
If you're still there, if you were president/dictator of the US what would be your policy toward the major sources of trouble in the mid-east? i.e. Iran and other sponsors of terrorism.
Apr '11
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Michael Totten
The biggest part of the problem was built into the industry.
To write about explosions and body counts, you have to stay in a hotel and survey everything from afar. You cant go into the field and cut yourself off from everything except for what’s in front of your nose. When I embedded in Sadr City, for instance, I had no idea what was going on anywhere else in Baghdad, let alone Fallujah or Mosul.
I had a completely different experience there than my colleagues whose job was to write the grim headlines. And there were more like them than there were like me.
When I was talking to a journalist in BGW early this year, both NYT journalists were sports journalists who had no previous knowledge of Iraq, and still had no knowledge of Iraqi finances and not much knowledge of their politics. I was told that this had become more common as Iraq ceased to be interesting. Is that your experience?
Do you believe that the decision to base the Iraqi constitution on a Belgian model (a proportional representation parliamentary system) is responsible for much of the political difficulty? Do you like any particular party?
Apr '11
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
How long do you think it will be before the country with the second best selection of biblical sites becomes a non-trivial tourist destination?
As Syria crumbles, how proud are Iraqi that Iraq is as stable as it is?
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
They’re certainly doing better than anyone else in Iraq. Iraqi Kurdistan is backward in many ways, but startlingly not at all in other ways.
Erbil, the regional capital, looks and feels little better than Baghdad, only it’s much safer, of course. While it is no more violent than Kansas, it is painfully and sometimes despairingly isolated and provincial. Beirut and Istanbul are vastly more modern and cosmopolitan.
Yet Iraq’s Kurds really have their act together politically. Absent are the conspiracy theories that run rampant in the Arab world. Anti-Americanism and anti-Zionism don’t even seem to exist. The people there are more stridently anti-terrorist than American conservatives are. When I ask people there to explain why their region is so different from the rest of the country, the answer is invariable the same: “We are Kurds.”
I think they will be fine.
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
That is correct. One reason I supported the overthrow of Saddam Hussein is because I hoped to see a democratic domino effect in the region, but I have to be honest about this. It didn't happen. And I don’t say that because my views of the Arab Spring are pessimistic. I’d say the same thing even if Cairo today looked like Prague did in 1989, which of course it doesn’t.
I can count on one hand the number of Arabs I’ve met outside Iraq who felt inspired by what happened there after the Saddam regime was demolished. I know a larger number (mostly in Lebanon, though still a minority) who approved of the American invasion, but that doesn’t mean they felt inspired by Iraqi democracy. To a man, woman, and child, almost the entire Arab world looked at Iraq and shuddered in horror. The positives were completely drowned out by the negatives.
The country that inspires Arabs around the region to revolt is not Iraq, but Tunisia.
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
It’s both.
20th century European totalitarianism does inform modern Islamism, but so do Wahhabism and Salafism, which, while of relatively recent vintage, are nevertheless, older, entirely non-Western, and rooted in the religion itself.
20th century European totalitarian also informs many secular Arab political movements, such as Baathism which was co-founded by an Arab Christian in Syria who was schooled in Nazi-occupied France.
Paul Berman explores this topic brilliantly in his book, Terror and Liberalism, which I heartily recommend to everyone here.
Edited on December 17, 2011 at 1:12amRe: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
I’d throw everything short of war at them and let them think war is coming even when it is not.
Not every bad actor can be deterred, but some of them can be. They have to believe in their bones, though, that they’ll die if they mess with us or our friends. The last thing we should be doing is sending signals that the Syrian and Iranian governments can do what they want without getting shot at.
Sometimes war is necessary, but after our experience in Iraq I’d like to keep it to an absolute minimum and avoid at all costs getting bogged down in insurgencies. We know how to fight counterinsurgency, but that hardly means we should go looking for it.
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Probably a very long time.
I went to Bosnia a few years ago and absolutely loved it. Sarajevo and Mostar are fantastic places to visit.
Almost all my friends and family members think I'm weird, first, for going to Bosnia, and, second, for liking it.
There is absolutely no good reason not to visit Bosnia if you want to. The war is long over. It's no more dangerous than anywhere else in Europe right now. And yet its Bad Boy reputation has lasted at least a decade longer than necessary.
I don't expect I'll ever see Iraq in as good a shape as Bosnia is today, so I don't think many tourists will go there. They certainly won't go there any time soon.
Sep '10
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Thanks so much, Claire, for setting up this discussion—and Michael for interacting with us. A huge benefit of Ricochet membership!
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Yes, thanks, Claire. And thanks to the rest of you for having me here and for reading.
Sep '11
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Thank you, Michael. You're a star.
Re: Ricochet Book Club: The Long-Awaited Discussion With Michael J. Totten
Michael, thank you so much--and you're very welcome to stay as long as you like. I had many more questions for you, but was distracted by an active two-year-old (is there any other kind?). If you feel like popping in over the weekend, I'd love to discuss them with you. One of the questions prompted by your book--and something that's been much on my mind--is the fate of the translators and other Iraqis who worked so loyally with us and are now at risk: Do you feel there's something more we could do to ensure their safety?