Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
The Logo ·
Oct 1, 2011 at 2:20pm
In our inaugural poll, Ricochet Members picked Herman Cain as their clear favorite, followed by Perry and Romney in a statistical tie. The debates have changed the candidate preferences for half of you.
Q1: If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
Herman Cain - 38.8%
Rick Perry - 24.6%
Mitt Romney - 23.1%
Newt Gingrich - 4.8%
Rick Santorum - 3.5%
Ron Paul - 2.3%
Michele Bachmann - 2.0%
Jon Huntsman - 1.0%
Q2: Have the debates changed your mind about who to vote for?
Yes - 51.8%
No - 48.2%
The poll was conducted from September 28-29. Question 2 has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 pct. pts at a 95% level of confidence. A third question was discarded because it was ambiguously worded.
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Comments :
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Thanks, Logo.
This is probably the lowest Ron Paul has ever gotten in terms of online voting- it's the paywall, baby!
Mar '11
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Despite all the, justified, criticism of the debates this poll appears to be an endorsement of them. Flawed or not, the debates appear to have given us enough information about candidates that over half of us changed our preferences.
Nov '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Quelle surprise! Mitt Romney actually polled in the double digits among Ricocheters.
Aug '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
The Logo:
The poll was conducted from September 28-29. Question 2 has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 pct. pts at a 95% level of confidence. A third question was discarded because it was ambiguously worded. ·
huh? statistical inference is only valid when you're dealing with a SRS. it has no interpretation with a reader/straw poll.
Oct '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Can we get the raw data to crunch upon?
We await the FTP or HTTP URL.
Mar '11
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Who are the 1% who voted for Jon Huntsman - his family?
I am glad I am not the only one who didn't understand the 3rd question.
It would be interesting to break it down between the contributors and members - I have long suspected that we members gravitate further to the right?
Jun '11
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
I missed voting in this poll, since I never seem to actually be logged in to Ricochet...what can I say, I joined because of the SteynGoldbergLong podcast which was promptly put on the backburner once they had my annual membership dues in hand! :D (when they recorded one in the wake of Wienergate I reached for my pocketbook immediately...)
Cain would've been my pick. But re Romney's surprise numbers, hey this is the home of the RINO squishes right? And the debates have made me actually warm up to ol' Mittens. I'd pick him over Perry, definitely...between two "RINOs" I'll at least prefer the one who we know and trust to be an establishment moderate Republican. And Paul's poor showing is quite funny, in that my Paulista friends are always telling me how the Great Unwashed must be absolutely in love with Ron Paul since he wins all these internet polls and straw polls. I tell them, he should be our Straw President!
Jul '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
It is early. There is still time for us to live it down.
Sep '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
David Williamson: Who are the 1% who voted for Jon Huntsman - his family?
I am glad I am not the only one who didn't understand the 3rd question.
It would be interesting to break it down between the contributors and members - I have long suspected that we members gravitate further to the right? · Oct 1 at 4:32pm
Good suggestion.
Sep '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
I totally dig Rob Long's assessment of Rick Perry and his frustration. I, too wish our guys were more slick and sharp-tongued. Alas, the are not actors or previous presidents of the SAG. They are but bugs pinned down in a wax tray awaiting dissection under a million watt bulb. Being honest and thoughtful is always a deliberative process. I think most progressive propagandists don't really care about what they say as long as their smear merchants are satisfied. I have met both Rick Perry and Herman Cain and like them both. Mitt and Christie are light years more preferrable to Odumbo, but I hate Romneycare and I hate being lectured to NJ style. Rob. You are a hollywood cat, get someone to help them. Have a heart. No more cringing. p.s. Rob. AMH in CHS raved about you at McCrady's.
Jun '11
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Nic Neufeld: I missed voting in this poll, since I never seem to actually be logged in to Ricochet...what can I say, I joined because of the SteynGoldbergLong podcast which was promptly put on the backburner once they had my annual membership dues in hand! :D (when they recorded one in the wake of Wienergate I reached for my pocketbook immediately...)
Cain would've been my pick. But re Romney's surprise numbers, hey this is the home of the RINO squishes right? And the debates have made me actually warm up to ol' Mittens. I'd pick him over Perry, definitely...between two "RINOs" I'll at least prefer the one who we know and trust to be an establishment moderate Republican. And Paul's poor showing is quite funny, in that my Paulista friends are always telling me how the Great Unwashed must be absolutely in love with Ron Paul since he wins all these internet polls and straw polls. I tell them, he should be our Straw President! · Oct 1 at 4:57pm
What? Excuse me, I was going through a tunnel.
Nov '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Sisyphus
It is early. There is still time for us to live it down.
Geez, you just couldn't let me enjoy it...
:=)
Oct '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Can't we all get along...and use "whom" when it's called for?
Aug '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Wow, I didn't even vote in this thing and Romney got 23%!
Maybe Ricochetians aren't as rabidly ideological as they pretend to be...
Edited on Oct 2, 2011 at 4:07pmRe: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
anon_academic
The Logo:
The poll was conducted from September 28-29. Question 2 has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 pct. pts at a 95% level of confidence. A third question was discarded because it was ambiguously worded. ·
huh? statistical inference is only valid when you're dealing with a SRS. it has no interpretation with a reader/straw poll. · Oct 1 at 3:45pm
Given the high percentage of people who opt out of participating in what passes for a sample in, say, telephone research, we think any opt-in bias is acceptable. We're only representing it as an indicator of our Membership, and the response rate was high as a percentage of the population.
Aug '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
The Logo
Given the high percentage of people who opt out of participating in what passes for a sample in, say, telephone research, we think any opt-in bias is acceptable. We're only representing it as an indicator of our Membership, and the response rate was high as a percentage of the population. · Oct 2 at 7:07pm
I still don't buy that a self-selected sample is indicative of the population it self-selected from. For one thing, they are probably the more active members, for another they are probably those who have especially strong preferences between the candidates.
However I agree with you that there's a certain amount of "those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw rocks" given all the problems with conventional scientific polling in an age where telemarketers have killed the response rate and widespread abandonment of landlines systematically biases telephone polls towards older and more sedentary populations.
Jul '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Elizabeth Dunn
Sisyphus
It is early. There is still time for us to live it down.
Geez, you just couldn't let me enjoy it...
:=) · Oct 1 at 7:28pm
Now I feel all...bad about myself. May the best person win.
Oct '10
Re: Results of Center of Gravity Poll #1
Statistics is hard. Polls are hard squared. I wonder if my maths is right and we're talking a sample of approx 540-550 people? I would have thought the Membership was such that this wasn't 'high as a percentage'...
Edited on Oct 3, 2011 at 12:44am