Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Last Sunday, I found myself once again standing before a standing-room-only crowd at the Oxford Union, the world’s most famous debating society.
For a suburban kid who stayed as far away as possible from my high school speech and debate program, this is a pretty intimidating experience . . .especially when you realize the spot where you are standing was once filled by Churchill, Gandhi, Thatcher and a bunch of other folks who actually deserved to be there.
Eleven years ago, with the late Dean of Oxford’s Said Business School Anthony Hopwood, I created “Silicon Valley comes to Oxford”, which to my amazement has grown to become the largest annual event for entrepreneurs in Europe. Three years ago we added a Union debate, and I’ve been involved in all three – the first as a commenter from the floor, the second as part of one of the two teams of four debaters (we won), and this year again as a commenter.
As always, the Union presents cocktails and dinner before the debate, so everyone involved typically has a good buzz on. And victory usually goes to the team that can best combine facts, shameless appeals to the audience’s prejudices, and wit. That’s all you need to know – other than that I rose in support of the opponents – and that the proponent team included (reluctantly, because I don’t think he really believed it) my old pal Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn and these days the most famous entrepreneur/superstar on the planet. Hence my less-than subtle digs at him and his company.
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Resolved: "This House believes that the average worker is being left behind by advances in technology"
Madam President, honored leaders of the Union, ladies and gentlemen, this is the third time that I’ve stood at this table, and my wonder at being even a small part of this great institution only grows.
I’ve risen to speak in support of the opposition because not to do so would be to give tacit support to those who would put the brakes to the technology revolution, to the most important force for the improvement in the quality of human lives – and indeed, of human work – ever created. I ask that you stand with me.
It is with no little irony that we hold this debate just a few miles from where, exactly two hundred years ago, the Luddites began their revolt. Like my esteemed friends in proposition tonight, they too believed that technology was leaving the average worker behind.
And yet, somehow, those average workers managed to adapt to the changes taking place around them, to find their way, and in the process embark on the greatest burst of wealth creation ever known. The “average” worker – and as an American even that term makes me uncomfortable – has somehow, over those last two centuries created a world in which he (and now she) enjoys better health, a longer life, more education, much more personal wealth, and an access to information and knowledge once only available to monarchs.
There are many laws in the world of technology, such as Moore’s Law of semiconductors and Metcalf’s Law of networks. And, as it happens, there is also one named after me. It says that “Technology revolutions always arrive slower than predicted, but quicker than we are prepared for.” In other words, we are always shocked when a revolutionary new technology like the personal computer or the Internet or smartphones or social networks arrives on the scene.
But a corollary of Malone’s Law is that “the technological miracle of one generation is the everyday appliance of the next.” This afternoon, schoolchildren were walking down the street outside this building listening to their iPods and talking on their iPhones – an image that will be repeated within a few years on the streets of Lusaka and Pnom Penh. At many of the world’s biggest corporations managers and employees who have worked together for years, have never met in person. My oldest son, who came home from Oxford in June, found a job in two weeks on Craigslist. My youngest son talks to his teachers via Facebook. And just before I came here, I checked my email to find that three people – average workers all – wanted to connect with me on LinkedIn.
Yes, advances in technology do leave us all behind – temporarily. But that’s the point. And those same technological advances also give us the tools to quickly catch up – and to improve our lives. One need only look at the productivity tables of the last half-century for proof of that. That same mainframe computer that once threatened our jobs, is now the laptop computer that lets us work at home and virtually communicate face to face with anyone in the world. Technology isn’t leaving us behind; rather, as always, it pulls us along in its wake.
To believe otherwise is to surrender, to join the army of King Ludd in trying to slow the pace of innovation, to throw a spanner into the gears of the most rewarding force in the modern world. It is to abandon your belief in human progress, imagination, and will. And it is to deny the future the same fruits of innovation that we so casually enjoy today.
Let me close by saying that if you believe, like the proponents of this resolution, that technology is only leaving us behind, that there is no countervailing technological force to help us keep up – then, to echo my dear friend Reid Hoffman’s words from last year, I suggest that you pull out your smartphones right now and cancel your LinkedIn accounts.
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So, how did it all turn out? We lost – which surprised even members of the other side, who agreed that the opposition had made a far stronger case. I suspect, sadly, that our defeat said more about the increasingly pessimistic European character than the quality of our performance. In my experience, every new tech breakthrough, every new Google or Facebook, is met with fear and dread, rather than the enthusiasm we see in Asia, and here in the States.
As for us losers, we drowned our sorrow in a few pints at a nearby pub and told ourselves that next year we’d get ‘em.
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Comments:
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
2) The timescale for technological advancement to lead to more employment opportunities is too long to matter politically. We need solutions quickly and this government isn't producing them.
3) The present government isn't especially interested in the fate of this country. It's the global hegemon and the world is its oyster. The opinions of American voters just don't compare to that.
When copper mining declined in the Keweenaw Peninsula of Michigan early in the last century the displaced workers were at least able to move to Detroit and work for Henry Ford. What's the choice now? Move to China?
No actually it's welfare, as those low skilled manufacturing jobs leave the US. That's a disaster on many levels, but it wins votes for the democrats so they're fine with it.
What's the GOP answer? Abolish the minimum wage? Child labor?
Those are losers, politically.
So is "free trade" as practiced, and the recent vote on the China currency bill shows that.
The GOP needs something better, or we'll get a second term with Obama, and disaster.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady
LowcountryJoe
You never did answer my question regarding your support for the minimum wage. What's the reason why you support it?
I never said I supported it- please follow along- I said it was a political mistake to advocate its abolition.
Let me help you out here by explaining how politics works in this country. You have to win elections or your principles- no matter how wonderful and true- simply don't matter. Even if you win elections if you don't make things better you're still in trouble.
Bluntly, the US government is failing. The GOP failed when it ran the country, and now the democrats are failing.
My take is that the country will face a political crisis so severe it the Republic may not survive. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic but I've got to call it as I see it.
The reasons for this relevant to our discussion are: 1) the US has nothing like a laisezz faire economic environment. Pardon me, but I thought it so obvious that we'd agree on that that I had no need to state it. Cont...
I see you as part of the problem.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady: 2) The timescale for technological advancement to lead to more employment opportunities is too long to matter politically. We need solutions quickly and this government isn't producing them.
3) The present government isn't especially interested in the fate of this country. It's the global hegemon and the world is its oyster. The opinions of American voters just don't compare to that.
When copper mining declined in the Keweenaw Peninsula of Michigan early in the last century the displaced workers were at least able to move to Detroit and work for Henry Ford. What's the choice now? Move to China?
No actually it's welfare, as those low skilled manufacturing jobs leave the US. That's a disaster on many levels, but it wins votes for the democrats so they're fine with it.
What's the GOP answer? Abolish the minimum wage? Child labor?
Those are losers, politically.
So is "free trade" as practiced, and the recent vote on the China currency bill shows that.
The GOP needs something better, or we'll get a second term with Obama, and disaster.
The substance of most of your responses sadden me; nothing left to say.
Apr '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
@Douglas #30: I think we're seeing a different situation than in the days of the buggy whip. Previous shifts, like from agriculture to industrial production, involved transfers from one labor-intensive segment to another.
Recent years have seen transfer from labor-intensive segments to new segments with a specific mission to eliminate labor. Let me cite an example. In the old days, mail was sorted by hand (labor intensive). With the advent of OCR, the need for human sorters was virtually eliminated. Some years ago, I wrote software for a mail sorter used in presort and the machine could sort more than 30,000 pieces per hour with a couple of low-skilled operators (and this was not a high-end sorter for the USPS).
My point is that we are automating far more jobs than are being created (and many of these are low-skill/low-wage). Automation isn't going away (it pays my bills) but we really don't know what to do with the redundant labor.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
KCRob..."In the old days, mail was sorted by hand (labor intensive). With the advent of OCR, the need for human sorters was virtually eliminated"
Why is this structurally different from the mechanization of spinning and weaving in the early 19th century? Or the introduction of mechanical check-sorting for banks in the 1960s? Or the automation of, say, insurance-policy billing in the late 1950s?
I'm not convinced that the current labor-productivity improvements are really all that different in degree or impact from those of the past couple of centuries.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
What if automated processes got to the point where they could extract resources and then make or convert those resources into food or goods and then distribute those all without human labor? And all you had to do was take care of the automated process and made sure it worked properly leaving you a significant amount of leisure time and everything you could want to consume. Sounds horrible for the displaced worker, doesn't it? I might just have to rage against the machine and become a Luddite!
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe
I see you as part of the problem.
I'm fine with that.
LowcountryJoe
The substance of most of your responses sadden me; nothing left to say.
I'm sorry hearing about reality saddens you. The next few years are going to be very difficult for you to hear about.
A stirring endorsement of the welfare state, vaguely reminiscent of the affluent society as described by John Kenneth Galbraith.
But I'm describing what would happen in practice, not how wonderful the theory sounds.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Yeah, one thing left to add.
You're projecting here.
Apr '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
David Foster:
I'm failing to make my point. I will try again.
Technology is replacing more jobs than it is creating. Example: the giant server farm Apple built in North Carolina employees about 50 people - good as far as the property tax base goes; not so good for an area with 13 percent unemployment.
Second point: the IQ bell curve along with the fact that, like many jobs, the worker needs some innate talent. I'm a good engineer but Rembrandt himself couldn't teach me to paint. Not everyone is cut out to be an engineer or scientist (if they were, I'd be making minimum wage).
I'm not against technology as it pays my bills. All I'm trying to point out is that we don't don't what to do with surplus labor and as can be seen on the news everyday, this is a destabilizing fact.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
KCRob:
I'm failing to make my point. I will try again.
Technology is replacing more jobs than it is creating...
Second point: the IQ bell curve along with the fact that, like many jobs, the worker needs some innate talent...
I'm not against technology as it pays my bills. All I'm trying to point out is that we don't don't what to do with surplus labor and as can be seen on the news everyday, this is a destabilizing fact.
I think you're making your point just fine. I also believe you're looking at this like a planner would. It should not be the responsibility for society to figure out what to do with displaced workers; the responsibility should be on the displaced worker to search his/her inventory of KSAs, ambitions, preferences, and drive then apply these toward another income-earning opportunity...maybe even one created by self. Certainly society should not lament beneficial progress just because some people have to adapt to the painful byproduct of becoming put out, temporarily [length largely dependent on ambition, in my opinion], by its inception.
Dec '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
david foster: Jerry, we are talking past each other. I'm about the last person in the world who would expect a manager to feel any loyalty toward The Buggy Whip Braider's Union.
However, I do believe that productivity and profitability will be maximized when you make an attempt to use an employee's mind and spirit, not only his hands and (in the case of customer service employees) vocal chords.
...
I don't believe in separation of thinking and doing. I simply understand that there are things that machines do much better and much faster than any worker. There are also things that workers do much better than any machine, particularly where some flexibility is required.
Generally, most ideas for process improvements come from the operators. They spend at least 40 hours each week immersed in the process as implemented, and because of that, they know more about many aspects of the process than it's inventor.
Still, there's merit to what you say. Some companies stupidly ignore input from even their best operators. This is a failure of management, not of technology. In the long run, these companies markets will be displaced by competition, possibly foreign.
Dec '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
David, I haven't seen all the manufacturing plants in the US. But I've seen a great many, and I've been involved in the implementation in those plants of copious amounts of new technology.
In my experience, it's much more likely for management to side with the union, or in non-union plants, to side with the individual operators where technology steps on toes. This is particularly true in large plants with long term, skilled employees.
This is because it's in management's best interest to ask the people who know their process best. And many of the managers have worked their way from labor into management, and do have some loyalty to (and ego based on) their former positions. I believe this is much more common than the top down manager, the one in your Taylorized plant.
The type of task Taylor sought to make more efficient were the very type most suited to replacement by automation. Consequently, there are very few plants in the US that use such methods except in the very short term, perhaps during start-up.
Dec '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
My point, my only point, is that technology won't be stopped. If I don't use technology well, someone else will. A company willing to do it right will excel over those who aren't, and all other things being considered equal, will win in the marketplace.
The economics always win out.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe: Yeah, one thing left to add.
You're projecting here.
I'm not projecting anything. I'm telling you where your preferred policies will lead. I'll break it down for you.
I'll assume your utopia still uses money. So those people operating the replicators will be highly skilled and presumably well paid.
What about all those swarming displaced workers? Yes, I know they're supposed to work on their KSAs and then start their own businesses. What about those who can't or won't?
Yes, I gather you're happy to see them starve. What do you think they'll have to say about that? Why, I'll bet they'll be agitating for the welfare state, and there will be plenty of politicians happy to help them.
So what happens then? We end up with a welfare state, just like now, with heavy taxes on the best paid, plus subsidized indolence.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady
I'll assume your utopia still uses money. So those people operating the replicators will be highly skilled and presumably well paid.
What about all those swarming displaced workers? Yes, I know they're supposed to work on their KSAs and then start their own businesses. What about those who...?
Yes, I gather you're happy to see them starve. What do you think they'll have to say about that? Why, I'll bet they'll be agitating for the welfare state, and there will be plenty of politicians happy to help them.
So what happens then? We end up with a welfare state, just like now, with heavy taxes on the best paid, plus subsidized indolence.
Oh my. It was a thought experiment to provoke thought [not my Utopia]; what went wrong as you read this? In the thought experiment everyone's wants and needs are met. How did you miss that?
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe
Oh my. It was a thought experiment to provoke thought [not my Utopia]; what went wrong as you read this? In the thought experiment everyone's wants and needs are met. How did you miss that? ·
You succeeded in provoking thought, which I appreciate very much, and nothing went wrong from that angle.
But my take from your thought experiment is that everyone's wants and needs end up getting met by the welfare state, thanks to politics, which neither of us want.
So we either ditch the political process- which is where I came up with the Tianenmin Square reference earlier- or we try something different.
My take on the something different is the US government stop attempting to be global hegemon, make the dollar actually float, and let US labor to be competitive on the world market as the dollar finds its true value.
That would wreck political support for the present welfare state, in my opinion. Too bad it won't happen.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Two ideas that have appeared repeatedly in this discussion are "technology is eliminating more jobs than it is creating" and "not everyone can be a scientist/engineer/chemist/etc"
That is surely quite similar to the way the world looked to the hand-weaver replaced by a power loom in 1810...after all, not everyone can be a millwright or a loom designer...and to the file clerk replaced by a UNIVAC system in 1955...after all, not everyone can be a programmer. Yet without discounting the very real individual suffering that *did* take place, on an economy-wide basis the jobs were more than replaced.
The reason this is not happening now, IMO, is not primarily due to any technological discontinuity but rather to political incompetence. The acute factor is the hostility of the Obama administration to business, particularly the energy industry. The chronic factor is the long-term dysfunctionality of the public schools, resulting in large numbers of people who are very hard to train for a wide range of jobs. See the article in the weekend WJ on the skilled-worker shortage in some industries.
Blaming unemployment on technology is exactly what Obama would like to do.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady
You succeeded in provoking thought, which I appreciate very much, and nothing went wrong from that angle.
But my take from your thought experiment is that everyone's wants and needs end up getting met by the welfare state, thanks to politics, which neither of us want.
So we either ditch the political process- which is where I came up with the Tianenmin Square reference earlier- or we try something different.
My take on the something different is the US government stop attempting to be global hegemon, make the dollar actually float, and let US labor to be competitive on the world market as the dollar finds its true value.
That would wreck political support for the present welfare state, in my opinion. Too bad it won't happen.
I liked this post (and even clicked that feature) if for no other reason than I felt like we were on the same chapter; maybe only a few pages apart. I had thought we had been reading different books earlier.