Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Last Sunday, I found myself once again standing before a standing-room-only crowd at the Oxford Union, the world’s most famous debating society.
For a suburban kid who stayed as far away as possible from my high school speech and debate program, this is a pretty intimidating experience . . .especially when you realize the spot where you are standing was once filled by Churchill, Gandhi, Thatcher and a bunch of other folks who actually deserved to be there.
Eleven years ago, with the late Dean of Oxford’s Said Business School Anthony Hopwood, I created “Silicon Valley comes to Oxford”, which to my amazement has grown to become the largest annual event for entrepreneurs in Europe. Three years ago we added a Union debate, and I’ve been involved in all three – the first as a commenter from the floor, the second as part of one of the two teams of four debaters (we won), and this year again as a commenter.
As always, the Union presents cocktails and dinner before the debate, so everyone involved typically has a good buzz on. And victory usually goes to the team that can best combine facts, shameless appeals to the audience’s prejudices, and wit. That’s all you need to know – other than that I rose in support of the opponents – and that the proponent team included (reluctantly, because I don’t think he really believed it) my old pal Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn and these days the most famous entrepreneur/superstar on the planet. Hence my less-than subtle digs at him and his company.
~
Resolved: "This House believes that the average worker is being left behind by advances in technology"
Madam President, honored leaders of the Union, ladies and gentlemen, this is the third time that I’ve stood at this table, and my wonder at being even a small part of this great institution only grows.
I’ve risen to speak in support of the opposition because not to do so would be to give tacit support to those who would put the brakes to the technology revolution, to the most important force for the improvement in the quality of human lives – and indeed, of human work – ever created. I ask that you stand with me.
It is with no little irony that we hold this debate just a few miles from where, exactly two hundred years ago, the Luddites began their revolt. Like my esteemed friends in proposition tonight, they too believed that technology was leaving the average worker behind.
And yet, somehow, those average workers managed to adapt to the changes taking place around them, to find their way, and in the process embark on the greatest burst of wealth creation ever known. The “average” worker – and as an American even that term makes me uncomfortable – has somehow, over those last two centuries created a world in which he (and now she) enjoys better health, a longer life, more education, much more personal wealth, and an access to information and knowledge once only available to monarchs.
There are many laws in the world of technology, such as Moore’s Law of semiconductors and Metcalf’s Law of networks. And, as it happens, there is also one named after me. It says that “Technology revolutions always arrive slower than predicted, but quicker than we are prepared for.” In other words, we are always shocked when a revolutionary new technology like the personal computer or the Internet or smartphones or social networks arrives on the scene.
But a corollary of Malone’s Law is that “the technological miracle of one generation is the everyday appliance of the next.” This afternoon, schoolchildren were walking down the street outside this building listening to their iPods and talking on their iPhones – an image that will be repeated within a few years on the streets of Lusaka and Pnom Penh. At many of the world’s biggest corporations managers and employees who have worked together for years, have never met in person. My oldest son, who came home from Oxford in June, found a job in two weeks on Craigslist. My youngest son talks to his teachers via Facebook. And just before I came here, I checked my email to find that three people – average workers all – wanted to connect with me on LinkedIn.
Yes, advances in technology do leave us all behind – temporarily. But that’s the point. And those same technological advances also give us the tools to quickly catch up – and to improve our lives. One need only look at the productivity tables of the last half-century for proof of that. That same mainframe computer that once threatened our jobs, is now the laptop computer that lets us work at home and virtually communicate face to face with anyone in the world. Technology isn’t leaving us behind; rather, as always, it pulls us along in its wake.
To believe otherwise is to surrender, to join the army of King Ludd in trying to slow the pace of innovation, to throw a spanner into the gears of the most rewarding force in the modern world. It is to abandon your belief in human progress, imagination, and will. And it is to deny the future the same fruits of innovation that we so casually enjoy today.
Let me close by saying that if you believe, like the proponents of this resolution, that technology is only leaving us behind, that there is no countervailing technological force to help us keep up – then, to echo my dear friend Reid Hoffman’s words from last year, I suggest that you pull out your smartphones right now and cancel your LinkedIn accounts.
~
So, how did it all turn out? We lost – which surprised even members of the other side, who agreed that the opposition had made a far stronger case. I suspect, sadly, that our defeat said more about the increasingly pessimistic European character than the quality of our performance. In my experience, every new tech breakthrough, every new Google or Facebook, is met with fear and dread, rather than the enthusiasm we see in Asia, and here in the States.
As for us losers, we drowned our sorrow in a few pints at a nearby pub and told ourselves that next year we’d get ‘em.
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Comments:
Apr '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Yes, the advance of technology is rough on workers of all types. Not least of all in my field. I'm a software developer and I've had to scramble to keep up with the technology de jour. But you find a way and in the end everyone benefits. But there is a price to be paid by those, even temporarily left behind; the work and stress of having to constantly catch up and then stay on top.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
An interesting analysis that is relevant to this discussion: Made in America, Again, from Boston Consulting Group.
Oct '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
KCRob: Technology is costing jobs. By definition, productivity gains result when output per worker increases.
I began my electrical engineering career as a technician in the 70s. In the years since, the number of people needed to design a product and put it into production has plummeted: far fewer drafters, fewer PC board designers, fewer engineers. PC board assembly is almost totally automated.
The products we have now are great but we've not figured out what to do with surplus labor (keep the bell curve in mind).
I don't want to sound like more of a snob than I am but in my trips into the real world, I run into very few potential chemists, physicists, engineers... · Nov 25 at 8:02am
Your last sentence defines a serious problem with American education and personal motivation, NOT technology.
Regarding how many fewer people needed, as a design consultant I have my AutoCad now, replacing the aforementioned cadre of drafters, etc.
On the other hand, the baby boom generation is beginning to retire or die off, and the replacement population are waiting on tables, manicuring our lawns and plucking chicken feathers for Tyson.
Does "technology" threaten their jobs?
Apr '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
There's a line in one of Ian Hogg's books something like, 'If supremacy for the Royal Navy required moving from barefoot sailors, wooden ships, sails, and muzzle-loaders to shoes, iron ships, steam, and breech-loaders, then Jack Tar would just have to make the change.'
It seems that attitude no longer prevails in Britain.
IBM used to run an advertisement in the WSJ back in the 1970's about a wool-weighing operation at a sheep station in Australia. The more-automated IBM system was not producing the expected increase in efficiency. Per the ad, it wasn't so much opposition to the technology as such, it was a lack of confidence in it that was holding performance back. After the IBM representative gave additional training to the foreman, getting him to believe in the system, results inproved dramatically.
Perhaps that illustrates a difference between Aussies and Brits in their willingness to embrace the new. Or something else, of course.
Apr '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
@raycon: not sure what you're saying but the jobs you mentioned aren't jobs that line the path to prosperity. Not to mention that they lend themselves to automation (or bioengineering in the case of featherless fowl).
I know of at least one fast food chain that has augmented counter help with self service kiosks that can easily replace the humans. And then there is RFID technology that will make cashiers obsolete.
You are correct as to education and motivation but am I wrong when I say that a lot of people are, to put it bluntly, not smart enough to do some of today's jobs?
Edited on November 25, 2011 at 8:07pmOct '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
KCRob: @raycon: not sure what you're saying but the jobs you mentioned aren't jobs that line the path to prosperity. Not to mention that they lend themselves to automation (or bioengineering in the case of featherless fowl).
I know of at least one fast food chain that has augmented counter help with self service kiosks that can easily replace the humans. And then there is RFID technology that will make cashiers obsolete.
You are correct as to education and motivation but am I wrong when I say that a lot of people are, to put it bluntly, not smart enough to do some of today's jobs? · Nov 25 at 11:06am
Edited on Nov 25 at 11:07 am
No... you are very correct. Get rid of the minimum wage and allow farmers to employ even child labor, provide alternative living arrangements for employees, and we can creatively employ those left behind. But the "welfare" claque will oppose, oppose, oppose.
Do the same for "unskilled" labor in general. Some level of underwriting by the charity sector and even some state tax subsidy to help the costs rather then wasting vast amounts of money on a worthless "education".
And then employ a serious enforcement regimen to keep fraud and abuse out of the system... all at the state level.
Edited on November 25, 2011 at 8:17pmJan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
KCRob:
I know of at least one fast food chain that has augmented counter help with self service kiosks that can easily replace the humans. And then there is RFID technology that will make cashiers obsolete.
Great! Short term the shareholders of the companies that employ this technology will profit more and the shareholders will reap the benefits. Longer term, if the technology is enthusiastically adopted by the entire industry, the consumers will benefit due to inflation adjusted prices being decreased; consumers win and the labor will be 'freed' to do other things [such as repair the technology or distribute the food/goods withing the supply chain].
KCRob:
You are correct as to education and motivation but am I wrong when I say that a lot of people are, to put it bluntly, not smart enough to do some of today's jobs? ·
If you feel badly enough about this you're more than welcome to contribute to their charity [or future learning of desired skills -- "teaching the man to fish"]. I, for one, want the market to send appropriate signals so that displaced people will react to those signals in a meaningful and productive manner...or else!
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Such a harsh tone you take. Forgive me if I do the same.
Beasley
Then fight tooth and nail against minimum wage, excessive bureaucratic oversight and labor unions.
There's a winning platform for the GOP: Abolish the minimum wage. FAIL.
Have you ever worked in a factory? I have.
I got all sweaty. It was terrible. But it was a lot better than unemployment, which too often is the alternative today. Or worse, unemployment and drug addiction- which I think I recall hearing Rob Long mention on one of the podcasts.
Funny that you rail against bureaucratic oversight but endorse cubicle jobs, because one of the prime generators of cubicle jobs is the relentless expansion of bureaucratic overseers. Plus, those sweet cubicle jobs that aren't in the endless government are also quite vulnerable to outsourcing.
So in the end we're left with nothing.
This is not a winning platform for a political party to endorse.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe
If you feel badly enough about this you're more than welcome to contribute to their charity [or future learning of desired skills -- "teaching the man to fish"]. I, for one, want the market to send appropriate signals so that displaced people will react to those signals in a meaningful and productive manner...or else! ·
Or else what?
You cancel elections you know you'll lose? Or do you roll the tanks out a la Tiananmin Square and start shooting?
Because a political platform that invites the electorate to go Hades is a loser, and basically that's your plan, even if you haven't figured that out.
And that's been the plan handed down to the American people by the political class for a long time. Hence the terrible approval ratings for Congress, and the willingness of the electorate to elect Mr. Hope&Change as president.
Time is running short to fix this. A regime that only offers its people steady decline into poverty and bankruptcy, accompanied by lectures about their stupidity, won't last, nor should it.
The political class with fix this, or else!
Mar '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Aren't you missing something though? There are indeed productivity gains and displaced workers, but advances in technology tend to open up whole avenues of new industry, opportunity, and ultimately, more jobs. Look at my buggy example. OK, we lost some carpentry jobs, some upholstery specialists, and maybe a few blacksmiths. In it's place was an industry that required mines and farms to gather raw matierials, plants to turn them into usuable products (steel, rubber, etc), then factories to turn those products into automobile parts. Then you have car dealerships. Then you also have a service sector for those cars, mechanics of every kind (engine, transmission, brakes, tire centers) and then gas stations to fuel them.
I submit to you that one automobile produces far more jobs than one buggy.
We replaced typewriters with computers that can do far more, but also require more maintenance and parts. That equals jobs.
Advancing technology, ultimately, always brings more jobs than it displaces.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady:
Beasley
Then fight tooth and nail against minimum wage, excessive bureaucratic oversight and labor unions.
There's a winning platform for the GOP: Abolish the minimum wage. FAIL.
So, you support the minimum wage legislation on principle or because of you think it make for a less odious political platform plank for voters to stomach (or both)?
I happen to think supporting minimum wage legislation, excessive bureaucratic oversight, and labor unions are winning in the same manner that Charlie Sheen is. I never want the GOP to adopt that crap.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady Or else what?
You cancel elections you know you'll lose? Or do you roll the tanks out a la Tiananmin Square and start shooting?
Because a political platform that invites the electorate to go Hades is a loser, and basically that's your plan, even if you haven't figured that out.
And that's been the plan handed down to the American people by the political class for a long time. Hence the terrible approval ratings for Congress, and the willingness of the electorate to elect Mr. Hope&Change as president.
Time is running short to fix this. A regime that only offers its people steady decline into poverty and bankruptcy, accompanied by lectures about their stupidity, wont last, nor should it.
The political class with fix this, or else!
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
1) I earn my own soup.
2) Are you kidding?
3) Who gets to define unproductive. You?
4) Having read what you've been writing here I'm not surprised.
5) Markets do lead to declines.
6) No, but they should favor actual fixes and not fantasies that are political sure losers.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe
So, you support the minimum wage legislation on principle or because of you think it make for a less odious political platform plank for voters to stomach (or both)?
I happen to think supporting minimum wage legislation, excessive bureaucratic oversight, and labor unions are winning in the same manner that Charlie Sheen is. I never want the GOP to adopt that crap. ·
Note the actual words I used, which did not mention bureaucratic oversight or unions.
I favor neither, and I have special loathing of unions.
But the idea that having the GOP came out in favor of abolishing the minimum wage is a political winner is just bizarre.
Dec '10
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
David Foster, The state of technology is never determinative. The economics always are in the long run.
Management's primary goal eventually overcomes any loyalties a manager might feel for The Buggy Whip Braider's Union.
This is not a bad thing. It makes products cheaper and of higher quality. And in the long run it frees up workers for other tasks not so easily automated.
Edited on November 26, 2011 at 3:02pmFeb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Jerry, we are talking past each other. I'm about the last person in the world who would expect a manager to feel any loyalty toward The Buggy Whip Braider's Union.
However, I do believe that productivity and profitability will be maximized when you make an attempt to use an employee's mind and spirit, not only his hands and (in the case of customer service employees) vocal chords.
See for example this post on the GE blog. There have been plenty of technological changes at this blowout-preventer plant, but apparently a serious effort is being made to use worker intelligence in a way very different from the classical Taylorist separation of Thinking from Doing.
See also these stories from GE's locomotive, jet engine, and appliance businesses. As the post say, "Great ideas are not just born in the research lab but also on the factory floor."
Edited on November 26, 2011 at 3:31pmJan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady: 1) I earn my own soup.
2) Are you kidding?
3) Who gets to define unproductive. You?
4) Having read what you've been writing here I'm not surprised.
5) Markets do lead to declines.
6) No, but they should favor actual fixes and not fantasies that are political sure losers.
You was in scare quotes; it wasn't you but the people who cannot adapt and react to the signals the market send, however painful it might be. Please follow along.
No, I am not.
The beauty of this is that no one person decides; all economic actors do [the market decides!].
It made no sense. You seemed to imply we've been in a laisezz faire 'plan' (or environment) already...one where displaced workers are not coddled by Uncle Sugar at all. That's totally inaccurate. Please tell me where I may have interpreted you incorrectly.
Over the long haul [if adhered to and not distorted by government intrusion: yes, that was my context]? If your answer is still "yes", I cannot believe you're a paying member on this site.
Fix by getting the heck out of the way, right? I fear your answer here.
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady
LowcountryJoe
So, you support the minimum wage legislation on principle or because of you think it make for a less odious political platform plank for voters to stomach (or both)?
I happen to think supporting minimum wage legislation, excessive bureaucratic oversight, and labor unions are winning in the same manner that Charlie Sheen is. I never want the GOP to adopt that crap. ·
Note the actual words I used, which did not mention bureaucratic oversight or unions.
I favor neither, and I have special loathing of unions.
But the idea that having the GOP came out in favor of abolishing the minimum wage is a political winner is just bizarre. · Nov 26 at 1:07am
You never did answer my question regarding your support for the minimum wage. What's the reason why you support it?
Jan '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
Xennady:
5) Markets do lead to declines.
Let me help you out here. A market based economy, over the long run, does not lead to declines in standards of living. Period! One can argue that markets might deliver goods and services that many will find objectionable on moral grounds [and this causes a so-called decay of the culture] but the market will punish those behaviors that do not bring lasting value to society as well.
This whole thread was started based on technological advancement -- advancement that benefits and brings value to society. I want to know why you have such heartburn with this concept. It comes off as very pessimistic to me and I don't understand why a conservative would demonstrate such a hostility of markets. Let's clear the air on this one.
Feb '11
Re: Resolved: The Average Worker Is Being Left Behind by Technology
LowcountryJoe
You never did answer my question regarding your support for the minimum wage. What's the reason why you support it?
I never said I supported it- please follow along- I said it was a political mistake to advocate its abolition.
Let me help you out here by explaining how politics works in this country. You have to win elections or your principles- no matter how wonderful and true- simply don't matter. Even if you win elections if you don't make things better you're still in trouble.
Bluntly, the US government is failing. The GOP failed when it ran the country, and now the democrats are failing.
My take is that the country will face a political crisis so severe it the Republic may not survive. I'm sorry to be so pessimistic but I've got to call it as I see it.
The reasons for this relevant to our discussion are: 1) the US has nothing like a laisezz faire economic environment. Pardon me, but I thought it so obvious that we'd agree on that that I had no need to state it. Cont...