Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
I took the weekend off from following anything political but it sounds like an agreement on the debt ceiling has been struck. Oddly, the Republicans seem to have gotten the better end of the deal. Details are still being finalized, but the deal includes nearly $3 trillion in spending cuts with no attendant tax increases. So what does it all mean?
Let's go over to Tim Carney at the Washington Examiner who explains that Republicans got what they wanted on substance but Democrats got what they wanted in politics:
Abandoned in the debt deal are the liberal ideal of "shared sacrifice" (i.e., tax increases) and the Keynesian tenet of government spending surges during recessions. Preserved is the political framing that helps the Democrats in the 2012 election: no more embarrassing debt-limit votes before the election, no prominent debate on a balanced budget amendment, and a stage set for some good old corporate-jets-vs.-Medicare demagoguery.
And we still have an entitlement problem that neither party has bothered to address.
- Comment (20)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Sep '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
It's hard for me to see any real winners in this, mostly this deal sounds like preservation of the status quo. We will get some marginal spending cuts. I guess that could be a win for the Republicans if they amount to anything. As to the politics, nobody has been persuaded of anything. The Democrats will continue to push for tax increases on the rich and to pretend that nothing needs to be done about entitlements. That's not a win for them: it has been ever thus.
It's possible this is the best we could do at this time. I have no appetite for sniping at anyone on our side. It's also possible this was a lost opportunity, although I haven't heard anyone in the past few weeks express a viable strategy for taking advantage of this moment to enact real change.
I'm glad it's over. Assuming it is over.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
It's didactic, I know, but increasing spending during a recession is not Keynesian. What Keynes advocated was that the government should maintain spending levels, using debt if necessary, to avoid deepening the recession further than necessary.
Let's look at the assumptions in his position:
This madness belongs to the Neo-Keyneseans, who Keynes would no more support than Keanu Reeve's Neo.
Edited on Jul 31, 2011 at 8:22pmJul '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Carney may be right that the deal preserves some Democratic talking points, but it hardly seems like it will be worth it from their perspective. The left is working itself into quite a lather about this agreement, which can only serve to dampen their base. And more importantly, the 2012 election will focus on one thing - the economy. Scare tactics about Medicare and demagoguery about corporate jets (which I hope they continue, it's such a ridiculously transparent bit of market strategy) will not gain traction. The Democrats and Obama are in the unenviable position of defending the state of the economy and I'm not sure their allies in the media can help them much.
No, the GOP seems to have had a spine transplant in the form of the 2010 freshman class of Representatives and they have proven their determination and ability to govern. Nothing succeeds like success and the GOP just got a well-earned dose. Let's hope they press their advantage.
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
I see that Paul Krugman has come out against the deal, which is enough to guarantee my enthusiastic support. I think it's as good as we're going to get at present.
I think any deal is remarkable when you consider that Obama started the year with no intention to cut anything. His proposed budget called for yet more spending. It was only because of pressure from conservatives -- Tea Party, Paul Ryan, etc. -- that Obama and Reid were dragged to the negotiating table. Every dollar of spending cut is a victory.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Double post?
Edited on Jul 31, 2011 at 8:26pmMay '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Indeed, if everyone's favorite socialist/collectivist/statist/utopian economist thinks it's a bad deal, then there must be some portions of it for us to crow about!
Whatever else anyone thinks about Mr. Boehner, one must agree he and his team have done yeoman's work in an extraordinarily difficult environment.
The debate over the debt ceiling and spending has been a very healthy thing, and I hope it will continue and garner more public interest in the entire sordid mess.
See Amity Shales, Joseph Thorndike, History Suggests Debt Ceiling Fights May be Good for Us.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Oh yes, because promises to reduce the debt 1 year (much less 5 years!) from now always work out! Spending cuts "in the future" are illusory. What is worse, they are based upon baseline projections, which means they're not really cuts in spending, they are decreases in the increase in spending. Regardless, we are on the Road to Serfdom.
Enjoy the ride.
Did y'all just fall off the turnip truck?
ETA: Do you remember B'rer Rabbit? What some of you are saying is "this plan sounds bad, but this guy who is diametrically opposed to me is against it, so I'm for it."
"Please don't throw me in the briar patch!"
Edited on Jul 31, 2011 at 8:26pmJul '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Well what this did not do is set a spending course that cannot be further modified. The dems big gamble is that Obama will be there to veto anything he wants next term and the massive entitlement fight of 2013 will be pointless as long as Zero has the pen. He's going to be hard to remove from office and I think it will not happen but we should all fight tooth and nail to get him removed now. Fight as if the very future of our country depends upon Obama losing, for it does.
Dec '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
I guess it will be incumbent upon us to keep the pressure on Congress to continue to fight for spending reductions (real ones!) and fiscal sanity. Some of our freshmen (Rubio, et al.) might be spectacular when given a non-emergency situation in which to maneuver. That's the fragile thread of hope I'm grasping onto.
Sep '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
This "deal" will not attract buyers for our treasuries, this fact combined with our souring economy means that the fed will have to monetize our defecit again. If you do not hedge accordingly you will overdose alongside the government in excess liquidity.
Nov '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
And that's good enough for me and my portfolio.
So much chatter about the future; let's just try to survive the present.
May '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Dems are whistling past the graveyard. The public is waking up to the problem, the economy is about to fall BACK into recession. Whatever "politics" they might have won, will soon be lost as congresscritters, looking to be reelected, will be campaigning about how much more they will soon cut once re-elected...and may pass more cuts before the election as bona fides.
The war will now be fought on OUR turf.
May '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Republicans---all the courage of no convictions. They'll shake hands all around, toss one back and say they gave it their best shot. Republican House and Senate, thy name is Lame.
But really, Michael Tee said it all: using the turnip truck analogy was icing on the cake.
Jan '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
George Will had a nice line on ABC's This Week after Krugman ranted about the Keynesian need to have a much bigger stimulus.
George Will: "It would be good to go to the electorate and have a Krugmen election this time. 'Resolved: the government is too frugal.' Let's vote.
Nov '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Even though deal has been struck, gold is still trading above $1,600. No massive sell-off to pre-crisis levels yet. Perhaps all this talk about debt is denting somebody's confidence...
Nov '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Krugman has also resolved to keep expanding his ego, by means of ever greater stridency.
KC Mulville
George Will had a nice line on ABC's This Week after Krugman ranted about the Keynesian need to have a much bigger stimulus.
George Will: "It would be good to go to the electorate and have a Krugmen election this time. 'Resolved: the government is too frugal.' Let's vote. · Jul 31 at 10:10pm
Mar '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
I have to disagree that the Democrats won on politics. The "cuts" (actually a minuscule reduction in the humongous increase) are insufficient to guarantee our AAA rating, so the issue will remain in the forefront, up to the election, and not in the Democrats' favor.
I hope the pessimists here are wrong, and that Mr Obama will be relieved of his duties (such as they are) in 2012 - otherwise we are, um, s..... sunk.
Edited on Aug 1, 2011 at 1:14amSep '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
For too long Washington has been eroding the American peoples’ freedom, wasting their money, and killing their jobs. For the first time in a long time a group of elected representatives are determined to change this. They are only a fraction of the GOP. This was only one skirmish in what promises to be a long battle.
Sep '10
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
I am impressed with the Democrats ability to frame the issue around the debt ceiling rather than the debt itself.
I think the end result is that we are heading toward default just as before except instead of travelling at 35 mph we are travelling at 34.9 mph. [BTW I started here with an anology using velocity (which starts the same in both cases) and acceleration (which is slightly improved but still increasing the velocity over time) which is a better analogy but turned out too technical].
I am not saying I would not have voted for this, I would have (big talk right?). But I would agree with Bruce above that nothing much has changed despite all the gnashing of teeth and renting of garments. We will default because of medicaire and social security payments, it is just a matter of when.
Jan '11
Re: Republicans Win On Substance, Democrats On Politics
Without serious entitlement reform we're all going over the cliff.
I don't think the House could have achieved entitlement reform by itself; we need to retake the Senate and the White House.
So for now, I'm just going to enjoy watching Krugman suffer and hope the President keeps going on TV to repeat his tired old class-warfare rhetoric; the more often he does that, the more chance that people will realize how useless he is.