Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Will there be a Republican blow-out four weeks from today? The evidence mounts.
Last week, I posted on this thrice -- pointing to a survey done by Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies for the American Action Network, which showed that -- while the Republican advantage on the generic ballot was only 5% -- the party had an 18% advantage in the 66 House districts currently held by the Democrats and rated a toss-up by Charlie Cook at the time the poll was taken; then, noting that John Raese had opened up a modest lead in the West Virginia Senate race, that Linda McMahon seemed to be closing in on Richard Blumenthal in the Connecticut Senate race and that Dino Rossi seemed about to overtake Patty Murray in the Senate race in the state of Washington; and, finally, adding that Jay Cost had demonstrated that the CNN/Time poll suggesting both Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown up 9% in their races against Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman was built on the absurd presumption that the Democratic component of the California electorate in November would be considerably larger than it was in 2008, 2006, or 2004.
Late Sunday, Gallup released a generic-ballot poll that is a real shocker. Since 1942, Gallup has been asking registered voters whom they would vote for if they were to vote today. Recently, Gallup has posted a chart showing the trends from 1950 to 2006. As Michael Barone explained in his Washington Examiner column yesterday, the latest Gallup poll shows the Republicans ahead 46%-42%, “about as good a score as Republicans have ever had.” At this stage in the race (usually a bit earlier, in fact), Gallup also releases data concerning likely voters. This year the data is apt to knock your socks off.
If there is a high turnout of voters, Gallup suggests a 53%-40% split in favor of the Republicans. If there is a low turnout, the data suggests a 56%-38% split. What does this mean? Here is what Michael suggests:
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Michael is cautious. The numbers, as he explains, are volatile. Scott Rassmussen – who bases his polling on likely voters – has that split at 45%-42%, down from the 48%-38% split that he recorded on 19 September. In a post this morning, Jay Cost compares the Rassmussen poll with the Gallup poll. He urges caution. He doubts that the Republicans will win by 18% or even 13%. But what he notices is this: in both polls, the independents are breaking decisively for the Republicans. Moreover, he points to the fact that Barbara Boxer in California and Patti Murray in Washington are incumbents polling under 50% (a danger sign) and that the Democrats are not doing at all well in statewide races in Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
I believe that the polling data understates what is likely to happen on 2 November. The extent of their volatility is a sign that things are happening that they do not yet know how to measure. In my lifetime, no one has seen a Republican surge on the scale of the one we are witnessing. It is possible that things will tighten between now and November. That is the norm. But we do not live in normal times. No pollster predicted the victories of Joe Miller and Christine O’Donnell. In my judgment, no pollster – apart, perhaps, from Gallup – recognizes fully the depth of the anger gripping the voting public. Think about the difference in size between the Glenn Beck rally in late August and the “One Nation” rally last weekend. Then, consider how much money the unions spent to bus people in to the latter. Think about the fact that no Democrat running for Congress is running advertisements touting the party’s legislative accomplishment.
I repeat my prediction. The Republicans will pick up between 70 and 100 seats in the House, and they will take the Senate. Lay in the champagne. Tell your employer that you will be late to work on 3 November.
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Aug '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Dick Morris, the repentant one-time 'progressive' who engineered Bill Clinton's comeback after the '94 debacle says the same thing. The main key is the polling of 'likely voters', such as Rasmussen does. Much of Obama's Statist base will stay away from the polls, and the vast majority of independents - who were the ones who really helped the Prince-of-Darkness-in-Chief last time - are voting conservative.
Beck's Rally was a real bellwether, largely because the people who attended did so out of firm conviction and heart-felt love of country.
Contrast them with the One Nation "Gimme More!" union-bought-and-paid-for mob. They punched their time card and split the scene as soon as they could, leaving piles of rubbish behind.
This will be the most important election since 1864. Pray fervently for the United States of America.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
While You're predicting, does O'Donnell ride the wave into office?
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Hard to say, but I would guess not. Harry Reid will lose; I think that Patti Murray will lose; and I would not be surprised if Barbara Boxer went down.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Paul A. Rahe
Hard to say, but I would guess not. Harry Reid will lose; I think that Patti Murray will lose; and I would not be surprised if Barbara Boxer went down. · Oct 5 at 8:51am
My guess is Murray wins. She breaks 50% in 2 out of the 3 latest polls, while Rossi can't get above 48%. Remember, Rossi is no fresh-faced Tea Party insurgent - and a state stupid enough to elect Murray 3 times is stupid enough to do it again.
The Illinois race is close enough to be stolen by the Dems, so it will be.
Reid should be down 10 points against my dog, but unfortunately, my dog isn't running - Sharron Angle is. She might pull it out, but I wouldn't count on it.
Assuming Boxer and Blumenthal win (and I do), that leaves CO and WV. Even if the GOP takes both of them, they only come in with 48 seats - or 49, if Reid goes down.
Jun '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
I'm sure there's a voter turnout model that gives O'Donnell a win. For example, the turnout model that let wrestler Jesse Ventura win the Minnesota governorship (as an Independent) I think went like this: "I know Jesse's not going to win, but let's vote for him anyway and make it close...give the winner something to think about." Apparently, lots of people came up with that plan.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
You're just trying to start another bar fight
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
I just see many straight (R) ballots.
If I wanted to start another bar fight, I would mention Pal.....
May '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
If Harry Reid goes down, who leads the Dems in the Senate? I've heard Durbin and I've also heard Schumer. Talk about a great way to extend gains in 2012. Among potentially vulnerable Democrats, you have John Tester, Ben Nelson, Jim Webb, Claire McCaskill, Kent Conrad and Maria Cantwell.
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Kenneth
My guess is Murray wins. She breaks 50% in 2 out of the 3 latest polls, while Rossi can't get above 48%. Remember, Rossi is no fresh-faced Tea Party insurgent - and a state stupid enough to elect Murray 3 times is stupid enough to do it again.
The Illinois race is close enough to be stolen by the Dems, so it will be.
Reid should be down 10 points against my dog, but unfortunately, my dog isn't running - Sharron Angle is. She might pull it out, but I wouldn't count on it.
Assuming Boxer and Blumenthal win (and I do), that leaves CO and WV. Even if the GOP takes both of them, they only come in with 48 seats - or 49, if Reid goes down. · Oct 5 at 9:16am
Kenneth, you are too pessimistic. Rasmussen has Rossi ahead, and CNN/Time is using a partisan baseline that presumes that the Democrats will vote in greater numbers than in 2008. Rasmussen has Angle up 3% over Reid and Kirk up 2% in Illinois. PPP has him up 4%. Buck is well ahead in Colorado, and Raese has a good lead in West Virginia.
Sep '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
I know little about polling, but it seems to me that the % of undecided in most polls is extremely low this year. Is there a reason for this? With the % so low and the enthusiasm gap markedly on the side of the GOP I conclude, perhaps incorrectly, that any GOP candidate within 5% of their opponent has a better than even chance of winning.
Feb '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
All I can say is: don't count your chickens before they hatch, and don't get too hyped up with projections of extreme gains.
Otherwise, when the election results in gains that in any year would be considered outstanding for the Republicans, the narrative will be that "it wasn't as big of a blowout as everyone expected." Which will give the Democrats cover to ignore the results, and possibly make the Republicans lose the confidence and boldness they need.
Jul '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Have you guys seen the O'Donnell "I'm You" ad?
Pathetic.
Jun '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
Professor Rahe: How about posting a sheet with the Senate seats up for grabs. We commenters could "quote" it to a form to complete and post for future bragging rights. This really is a game that any number can play.
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
A good idea. I will see what I can do in a day or two. Right now, I have to focus on preparing to teach the Roman empire and a seminar on Montesquieu tomorrow.
Jun '10
Re: Republicans Will Take the House and the Senate in November
And maybe a "tie-breaker" question -- net House seat pick-up ?