The House GOP has the set date to vote on repealing Obamacare: January 12. And for now, Democrats are acting like this is good news for them.

repeal-obamacare1

Though the legislation will pass the Republican-led House--with even a few Democrat votes--the Senate is another matter. The Senate is controlled by Democrats, 53-47, while the House is controlled by Republicans, 242-193.

Could the repeal effort hurt Republicans since it is doomed to fail in the Senate?

Brent Budowsky, writing in The Hill, thinks it will hurt Republicans for another reason:

Once Republicans start drafting bills to repeal or make dramatic cuts to healthcare that hurt large numbers of voters, watch how fast they run for cover when the public backlash comes.

To Budowsky, the public opposes Obamacare not because they think it goes too far, but because it doesn't go far enough.

Many voters who oppose the law actually want stronger provisions, not weaker.

And over at the Daily Kos, Joan McCarter says that the GOP’s repeal campaign will politically backfire and actually help the Democrats for the same reason Budowsky cites: the law's "popular measures." McCarter says the Dems are ready to fight:

This should be a no-brainer for Dems--turn the Republicans' tactics around on them and force them to take painful votes. Make them vote against the popular measures within the reform package. It's not a particularly "bipartisan" or "civil" approach to politics, but look where civility has gotten us so far.

With 60% of Americans favoring repeal, what popular measures would those be?

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~Paules
Joined
Jun '10
~Paules

 When the lunatic fringe of the Democratic party says "bring it on," Republicans should do everything possible to oblige them.  The difference between a Bolshevik and a Kossack is that the Bolsheviks knew they were a minority despite the claim inherent in the name.  The Kossacks have evolved beyond the term "useful idiot."  I offer you "delusional imbeciles."  With opposition like this, who can lose?      

Emily Esfahani Smith, Ed.
~Paules:  When the lunatic fringe of the Democratic party says "bring it on," Republicans should do everything possible to oblige them.  The difference between a Bolshevik and a Kossack is that the Bolsheviks knew they were a minority despite the claim inherent in the name.  The Kossacks have evolved beyond the term "useful idiot."  I offer you "delusional imbeciles."  With opposition like this, who can lose?       · Jan 4 at 6:35am

Or, to combine two of your characterizations: the delusional fringe. Their ideology causes them to ignore the political reality and the polling data--the facts, basically.

Paul A. Rahe

One thing is clear. If the Republicans in the House do not move to repeal Obamacare, the Tea-Party Movement will abandon the Republican Party, and the Republicans will be finished.

If, however, they do move to repeal Obamacare -- and, of course, they will -- it will mark the beginning of the 2012 presidential campaign. For, unless the Supreme Court rules Obamacare unconstitutional, the presidential race in 2012 will turn on Obamacare. Bren Budowky and Joan McCarter are true believers, as are Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Their convictions on this matter fly in the face of not only polling data, but election results. We should not underestimate what happened on the first Tuesday in November. It was a decisive election, and the election turned on Obamacare.

Emily Esfahani Smith, Ed.

Paul A. Rahe: One thing is clear. If the Republicans in the House do not move to repeal Obamacare, the Tea-Party Movement will abandon the Republican Party, and the Republicans will be finished.

If, however, they do move to repeal Obamacare -- and, of course, they will -- it will mark the beginning of the 2012 presidential campaign. For, unless the Supreme Court rules Obamacare unconstitutional, the presidential race in 2012 will turn on Obamacare. Bren Budowky and Joan McCarter are true believers, as are Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. Their convictions on this matter fly in the face of not only polling data, but election results. We should not underestimate what happened on the first Tuesday in November. It was a decisive election, and the election turned on Obamacare. · Jan 4 at 7:23am

Do the Republicans need a crafty strategy for repealing Obamacare, or is introducing the legislation to the House (as they plan to do) enough? That said, will the fact that it won't pass in the Senate make the GOP's effort look like a failure?

Andrea Ryan
Joined
May '10
Andrea Ryan

Emily Esfahani Smith, Ed.

Paul A. Rahe: ...If the Republicans in the House do not move to repeal Obamacare, the Tea-Party Movement will abandon the Republican Party, and the Republicans will be finished.

...

Do the Republicans need a crafty strategy for repealing Obamacare, or is introducing the legislation to the House (as they plan to do) enough? That said, will the fact that it won't pass in the Senate make the GOP's effort look like a failure?

It's not a guessing game how the repeal effort will play out in the senate, so I think it's clearly part of a strategy.  Paul is right to remind us of the national uprising against Obamacare and this vote will put a bright spotlight on the fact that Republicans stand against Obamacare...Democrats stand for it.  It's a line drawn in the sand and now that "we know what's in the bill" this vote will make politicians stand front and center on each side declaring their position.  The GOP will have something tangible to say, "Look at that.  We stand with the people...Democrats do not.".  I think they're tar-and-feathering the Obamacare supporters.

Nick Stuart
Joined
May '10
Nick Stuart

@Emily. Introducing the legislation is a requisite start. Paul is correct that if the Republicans don't deliver on their promises to act in the House by passing repeal of Obamacare (among other things) they'll be abandoned by the Tea Party for  (undoubtedly disastrous) third and splinter parties in 2012.

The House GOP can say "we did what we said we would do, now it's up to the Senate" then let the Senate Dems defend inaction. With so many of them running from such electorially tenuous positions (like Ben "Cornhusker Kickback" Nelson) and the incineration of Blanche Lincoln fresh in the memory it may be possible to pick off a few senate Dems. Even guys in safe seats like Dick Durbin might want to stay in the majority and decline to share Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer's recent electoral debasement.

The trick is going to be for the Republicans to make their case and get a consistent message out over the propaganda campaign the Dems and their media arm will wage.

Lady Kurobara
Joined
Nov '10
Lady Kurobara

This is not the time for "nuanced" thinking.

When Obama put his signature to Obamacare, that was a decisive victory for socialism, and a great leap forward for the progressive agenda.  By signing it, Obama labeled himself forever as the most destructive President in American history.  If he does not understand the far-reaching ramifications of the bill, he is a dangerous dunce.  If he does understand them, then he is even more dangerous because he is an outright Enemy of the People, actively working to destroy our freedoms and liberties.

Obamacare is now a cancer in the body politic and will inevitably destroy America as a republic, as it metastasizes and invades every aspect of our lives.  The horrid thing must be repealed in its entirety.  Leaving any slightest part of Obamacare intact is counterproductive.  There is nothing "good" about it.

More than anything else, the GOP must keep the public informed — something they have egregiously failed to do up to now.  They can open the battle for repeal very effectively by publicizing the fact (noted in other threads) that the "Death Panels" are now back in business.  We need the voice of Sarah Palin now, more than ever.

Ken Sweeney
Joined
Oct '10
Ken Sweeney

Last week, left wing pundits were arguing against the US Constitution.  This week they decry the repeal of an unpopular behemoth in the health care law.   Their pathway to power seems a strange one.

I just hope we can get the Senate to even have a vote on it in order to get Manchin, McCaskill, Nelson, Nelson, Pryor, Tester, and Webb, on the record to defend or repeal.  That is the strategic blunder the Democrats are making—these Senators might actually vote for repeal !

AmishDude
Joined
Dec '10
AmishDude
Ken Sweeney: I just hope we can get the Senate to even have a vote on it in order to get Manchin, McCaskill, Nelson, Nelson, Pryor, Tester, and Webb, on the record to defend or repeal.  That is the strategic blunder the Democrats are making—these Senators might actually vote for repeal ! · Jan 4 at 9:08am

Bingo. At this time (and never underestimate Republicans' ability to turn potential energy into...nothing) the GOP should be looking at no less than 4 Senate seats flipping D to R. Almost no Republican seats are vulnerable and the Republican Senators that are vulnerable (Hatch, Lugar, etc.) are only likely to go down to a primary challenge.

The Obamacare repeal will probably go down to defeat based on a filibuster with several of the above-mentioned voting with the Republicans for cloture. It'll allow them to have it both ways.

As to the popularity, Dems are doing a propaganda strategy here. If they tell you enough times that it's popular, you may start to wonder what's wrong with you that you don't see the unicorns and rainbows too.

Edited on Jan 4, 2011 at 9:56am
TeamAmerica
Joined
Oct '10
TeamAmerica

Lady Kurobara et al:

I agree with your and Mark Steyn's opinion that this is a very destructive bill, but I'm far from assured it will get repealed. After all, Repubs never even repealed the failed Dep'ts of Educ. and Energy. Further, Obama's strategy post-election, as Krauthammer has pointed out, is public moderate gestures accompanied by regulatory overreach. This approach will only get critiqued by Fox, talk radio, and some web sites. So far, every article, editorial or cartoon by our brain-dead mass media regarding Obamacare has varied only in the degree of cheerleading. I hope enough moderates/independents remain convinced it should be repealed.

A Murder of Cows
Joined
Jul '10
A Murder of Cows

I understand the political needs met by holding an outright repeal vote right out of the gate, even though a win in the House would be a Pyrrhic victory for all the oft-repeated reasons.  But I wonder if this might not be the overplaying of an otherwise strong hand.

Many Republicans ran on the idea of repeal-and-replace.  Public dissatisfaction with Obamacare should not be read as an endorsement of the idea that everything's just peachy with the current system and nothing need be done.  Many Republicans, like Rep. Paul Ryan, proposed some good alternative reforms which might garner public support if given half a chance.

I think it's wiser to hold off and hold a vote instead on repeal coupled with a package of Ryanesque reforms. Why fight this battle on the White House's preferred turf—doing something vs. doing nothing?  Why not fight it as competing alternatives?  Why confirm Democratic talking points by holding a repeal vote in a vacuum?

outstripp
Joined
May '10
outstripp

America doesn't have a healthcare problem, it has a health insurance problem. The Repubs need to counter with an easy-to-understand market-based insurance solution.

The average person doesn't want socialism, but he doesn't want to be thrown to the wolves either.

ManBearPig
Joined
May '10
Ryan Gaines

If "the unwashed masses" wanted a stronger health care bill, wouldn't the Dems have picked up seats in the last election? It seems insane that the commoners would elect Republicans if they favored *more* socialism, not less...


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