Red Flags from Romney
You can be forgiven if you didn't watch last night's Republican presidential debate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, if only because it was the 290th such forum in this election cycle and one can only listen to Ron Paul give a 10-minute disquisition on the virtues of legalizing hallucinogenic mushrooms so many times before beginning to lament the existence of participatory democracy.
Mollie has already correctly identified the high point of the evening: Newt Gingrich's smackdown of Juan Williams when the Fox pundit accused him of being insensitive on racial issues. Newt delivered a bravura response, as he did several times throughout the night, returning to his stride for the first time since he led in the polls late last year. Rick Perry, though paid little attention, also had a very good night, looking like someone who could've been a serious contender for the GOP nomination had he sounded this way in October. Santorum's performance was serviceable. Ron Paul responded to most questions thrown his way in the form of a five-minute Mad Lib.
The big (and disquieting) takeaway from the debate, however, was this: Mitt Romney is still the prohibitive front-runner -- and he looks set to be a very weak one. Romney didn't get hit with anything last night that's going to stick to him. The only new revelation came courtesy of Santorum, who drew him out on the unlikely topic of restoring voting rights for felons after they've served out their sentences. It was an interesting conversation for policy wonks, but not one that's likely to change the trajectory of this race. Barring a major hit (which didn't happen last night), you still have to like Romney's odds going forward.
The problem this poses -- which was on display last night as never before -- is that Romney, like the current president, becomes less palatable the more you see of him. During the course of the two-hour debate, Romney repeatedly came off as peevish, condescending, and generally irritated to have to make his case publicly. When asked why he hasn't yet made his tax returns public, he gave a meandering answer that was itself probably more suspicious than anything in those documents. When baited by Santorum into the voting rights discussion, he seemed legitimately surprised that he had to defend his record in Massachusetts. This was not the performance of someone you'd feel confident sending into a contentious general election campaign.
As I said in last night's debate chat, the thing that worries me most about Romney is his consistent ability to make me dislike him even when I agree with the argument he's making. In talking to other conservatives, I've learned that's not an isolated phenomenon. That's little more than an annoyance for me (and probably most Ricochet readers); there's no question that I'm going to vote for the Republican nominee come November. But for the marginal voters who pick presidents on a gut-check, I'm concerned that Romney won't be able to close the deal. Should he have the nomination essentially locked up by the end of this month, that will leave him with more than nine months of saturation coverage as the general election nominee. That's far too long for someone who seems inconvenienced by the process. If the Romney team doesn't use some of that time to sand down the candidate's rough edges, we could be in for a very unpleasant November.
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Comments:
Sep '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
If the election in November was by acclamation, I'd be comfortable with Romney as the Republican nominee.
Oct '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Nothing to add or comment on, except to say, I'm glad Ron Paul is in the debates. He is one of the reasons I watch them.
Mar '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Ron Paul responded to most questions thrown his way in the form of a five-minute Mad Lib.
I've been trying to work Mad Libs into a Ricochet comment for months. Color me stupidly jealous.
Aug '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Troy Senik, Ed.
When baited by Santorum into the voting rights discussion, he seemed legitimately surprised that he had to defend his record in Massachusetts.
"He seemed genuinely surprised that he had to defend his record" could be applied to any number of issues. We've seen this surprise several times during this campaign, and each time it highlights his weaknesses as a candidate.
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Romney demonstrated (yet again!) how utterly flappable he is. The term sausage grinder will be applied in a new way in D.C. after the Obama machine gets done with him.
Aug '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
I watched the debate twice - and Romney grew on me both times. I am a founding member of ABR (at least here on Ricochet) and I have to say that a Romney candidacy is growing on me. It seems that he is getting the message that he needs to acquire and polish some conservative bona fides and I hope it takes.
Ron Paul was simply amazing though - How many time was he quoted directly and had the audacity to claim those quotes were misunderstood? If the man can't even get his point across in a friendly forum, he doesn't need to be president.
Sep '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Troy, I think you've clearly stated the reluctance of those who have not thrown our support to Romney. I would add the night was made worse for Romney by Newt's response to Juan Williams. It juxtaposed the best in Newt versus a tepid Romney. Unfortunately for Newt, in past when he had similar moments in debates there were no recent moments showing Newt at his worst. With Newt's recent missteps in New Hampshire, I'm reluctant to throw my vote behind him based on one debate sound clip. Bain bashing is still fresh in ones's mind. My worry is that either way, Anybody but Romney supporters will have to vote for Romney or Romney supporters vote for The Other Guy and hope that the candidate proves better in office than their fears. Elections are won by selling people they are the right candidate not wearing them down to vote in submission. This isn't the first time we've seen this happen in presidential politics but it isn't a successful way to win. Rob Long's fear that we're goin to lose this election despite having do many things setup in our favor might prove prescient.
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Precisely right, RM. If you back Romney (or at least have started to make your peace with the prospect that he's likely to get the nomination), you couldn't help but watch Newt performing on overdrive and think "Our candidate is not going to be able to pull that off come autumn."
Dec '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Romney's problem has never been his willingness to say all the right things. His problem is that tomorrow's all the right things may have nothing to do with today's all the right things, and then the day after that the same concern applies.
He is all for repealing Obamacare, right up until he is not, and no amount of youtube footage will convince him that he ever supported repealing it.
Thats Romney's big problem, that and a long and proven track record of political ineptitude, failure, and inability to effectively deal with pushback in a credible fashion.
The thing about conservative bona fides is that he has to have at some point had them.
Edited on January 17, 2012 at 8:57pmDec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Troy Senik, Ed.: Precisely right, RM. If you back Romney (or at least have started to make your peace with the prospect that he's likely to get the nomination), you couldn't help but watch Newt performing on overdrive and think "Our candidate is not going to be able to pull that off come autumn." · Jan 17 at 11:53am
Romney can't pull it off now. The tax return dodge demonstrated that. What a great opportunity he had to talk up capitalism and individual accomplishment. Instead he tucked his tail between his legs and ran around in circles.
May '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Troy, I missed the first 20-30 minutes of the debate, and I was impressed by Romney this time. Seems like I missed his early stumbles, which some people have mentioned.
Is it really true that he became more tiresome as time went on, or is it rather that his mistakes at the beginning clouded your overall opinion of his performance?
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
I'm suffering the missing tile syndrome with Romney -- big time. He won't push back like Newt, he won't articulate conservative convictions like Newt or the Ricks, he won't appeal to blue collar workers like Santorum, etc. All I can see are his deficiencies with the rest of the picture filled in by Romneycare. It just confirms my earlier suspicion that he's absolutely the wrong guy for the GOP to run this year. He might have been better than McCain in 2008, but I think even then he would have lost to Obama.
Slightly OT, and possibly a question for the speech writers, doesn't Romney have a pacing problem when he speaks? He's too fast. Rat-a-tat-tat and you're cross-eyed with boredom and completely disinterested by the time he gets to the last "tat." His handlers should tell him to slow down and speak with emphasis. This is where Newt is brilliant. See? There I go again...
Apr '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
Troy Senik, Ed.: Precisely right, RM. If you back Romney (or at least have started to make your peace with the prospect that he's likely to get the nomination), you couldn't help but watch Newt performing on overdrive and think "Our candidate is not going to be able to pull that off come autumn." · Jan 17 at 11:53am
It seems strange to talk up Gingrich in a post that is about how unlikeable Romney is. As in the 90's, Newt is one of the most widely disliked politicians in the country (Nate Silver pointed out recently that his disapproval rating was a pathetic 56% nationwide).
Gingrich's debate performances do make conservative hearts go pitter-patter. I doubt they have any positive effect on moderates or independents.
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
wmartin
Troy Senik, Ed.: Precisely right, RM. If you back Romney (or at least have started to make your peace with the prospect that he's likely to get the nomination), you couldn't help but watch Newt performing on overdrive and think "Our candidate is not going to be able to pull that off come autumn."
It seems strange to talk up Gingrich in a post that is about how unlikeable Romney is. As in the 90's, Newt is one of the most widely disliked politicians in the country (Nate Silver pointed out recently that his disapproval rating was a pathetic 56% nationwide).
Gingrich's debate performances do make conservative hearts go pitter-patter. I doubt they have any positive effect on moderates or independents.
I heard Frank Luntz say Romney's most effective line last night was "Stop it." So, here goes... Stop it, wmartin. Please stop ignoring what we're saying about Romney. We think we're in trouble with this guy. No one is saying we wouldn't be in trouble with Newt. No one I've read or heard. Help us see how Romney isn't fatally flawed in a match-up with Obama.
Mar '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
My take on the debate was if the guys on stage were in a rock band Newt would be lead singer, Perry lead guitar, Romney drums, Santorum bass, and Paul ticket scalper. And this was before I read Troy's article here. And, if I could be allowed to merge the two . . .
Simply, Mitt Romney is not a rock star. He doesn't pump up crowds. He doesn't stage dive. He doesn't treat every city as if it is his favorite. He doesn't make the young girls cry. Like I said, he's a drummer. He'll play a steady beat. He'll sing backup in tune. He'll know the song list. He'll throw sticks to the crowd. He'll do a respectable drum solo. But even as a figurative drummer, he's no Buddy Rich, Neil Peart, or Jon Bonham.
It's just who he is and if you have a band, a good drummer is great to find. But, these times need a rock star. A David Lee. A Plant. A Daltrey. And from last night, the only guy who comes close is Newt . . . look at those standing ovations.
Edited on January 17, 2012 at 9:59pmRe: Red Flags from Romney
A nerve has been struck. Today, the White House is back on its heels,...on the defensive, against the witheringly accurate charge of a "Food Stamp President." That charge, from deep in the wilds of South Carolina, was effective enough to put the Presidential spokesman in a knot. They are on the defensive as a result of the unelectable Newt Gingrich.
Meanwhile, that blazing light of electable vacillation, Mitt Romney, is marshaling his superior powers to determine the least offensive time and manner to release his tax records. Yes,...eminently electable. Of course...
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
It struck me that Romney walked right into Santorum's trap on felons voting. It was as if Santorum had borrowed from the Chinese the technology that the Iranians claim to have used to hijack our stealth drone. Romney ought to have been able to brush off that line of attack, but instead followed it into Santorum's logical conclusion.
By contrast, Newt addressed the question from Juan Williams with a forceful denial of the premise, and thus not only didn't go where Williams intended but went to a conclusion that earned him applause.
As the King Prawn says, Romney even at this late date shows how utterly flappable he is. Unless and until he can show that he can set the other candidates back on their heels as they've been able to do to him, I won't have any confidence he can do it to Obama well enough to win.
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
When one is running for President, how is the answer to the question, "Will you release your tax records," ever not, "Is the day after tomorrow soon enough?"
Dec '10
Re: Red Flags from Romney
GOVICIDE: It's just who he is and if you have a band, a good drummer is great to find. But, these times need a rock star. A David Lee. A Plant. A Daltrey. And from last night, the only guy who comes close is Newt . . . look at those standing ovations. · Jan 17 at 12:58pm
Edited on Jan 17 at 12:59 pm
I've seen people perform with just a guitar, or even a capella. I don't see a lot of instances where a drummer by himself can sell enough tickets to fill an arena.
Apr '11
Re: Red Flags from Romney
We think we're in trouble with this guy. No one is saying we wouldn't be in trouble with Newt. No one I've read or heard. Help us see how Romney isn't fatally flawed in a match-up with Obama. · Jan 17 at 12:40pm
We are in trouble with Romney. we are in much more trouble with Gingrich. Just winning this election is of paramount importance because (contrary to most conservative boilerplate about taxes and regs) the economy is coming back. We have to get in in time to get some credit for it.
Think of how the last two decades have looked to people my age, meaning people who grew up with Bush Sr being the first President we really remember. The economy sagged under Bush Sr, surged remarkably under Clinton, imploded disastrously under W, then came back to life under Obama. Casual, moderate voters of my age group (and the large group just above and below it) will remember this pattern for the rest of our lives. I want Romney to be the nominee because he has the best chance of just squeeking by, and thats about the best we can expect.