George Savage · Oct 17, 2011 at 12:14pm

Herman Cain is leading President Obama 43% to 41% in the latest Rasmussen poll, a five point surge for Cain over the past week.  

Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.

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raycon
Joined
Oct '10
raycon

It seems as though the "electability" issue is leading too many Ricocheteers to oppose Cain even though of all the candidates he shows himself to be, by character, a real conservative.  Our side might take him out over a multitude of complaints about foreign policy, 999 or quibbles over this answer or that to mostly hostile interviewers.

In short, are we expecting Romney's certain 25-30% showing to take out Obama? 

Apart from his powerful conservative credentials, Cain is the ONLY candidate who can show the certain Obama racist campaign for the fraud and hypocrisy it will be. 

That alone is a major advantage that none of the others have.

BlueAnt
Joined
Aug '10
BlueAnt

This really shouldn't be a surprise.  As Obama himself shows, Americans are quite willing to elect people we often complain about "not having enough experience".  Cain has a compelling story and an authentic demeanor; he's talking jobs instead of sniping at the past issues of other candidates; and, as much as we hate to acknowledge it, he eliminates the "I can't vote against the black guy" guilt trip.

I honestly believe Cain could carry the general vs Obama, should he get the nomination.  The narrative is easy to write.  Piecing together a narrative where people actively embrace Romney over Obama--shades of McCain all over again--is entirely possible, but much harder to see.  Being the default guy against candidate X can only carry you so far in an election.

The King Prawn
Joined
Dec '10
The King Prawn

 The irony of Obama's defeat being the beginning of a post-racial America is almost more than I can bear.

jetstream
Joined
Dec '10
jetstream

Cain will defeat Obama in a landslide - by November of 2012 the economy of 1980 will look like the definition of prosperity and growth.

concerned citizen
Joined
May '10
concerned citizen

Yes!  Dare I hope?

raycon: Our side might take him out over a multitude of complaints about foreign policy, 999 or quibbles over this answer or that to mostly hostile interviewers.

This is a fundamental difference between the right and the left.  On the right, we are always nitpicking our candidates, ready to render them unacceptable over some detail in their plan or some policy or statement from their past.  On the left, their past policies and statements are ignored; all the candidate has to do is offer a vacuous, jejune slogan such as "Hope and Change" and everyone swoons and he is elected.

Let's not fall into the trap of overthinking this.  Cain is looking more and more like a winner.  I'm still open to Romney/Cain, but now Cain at the top of the ticket is looking even better.

George Savage
concerned citizen:  On the right, we are always nitpicking our candidates, ready to render them unacceptable over some detail in their plan or some policy or statement from their past. . · Oct 17 at 1:37pm

For the latest example, today our friends at NRO take a stand against Cain's 9-9-9 plan.  The piece is headlined, "Bold, Brash, and Wrong."

The New Clear Option
Joined
Apr '11
Gen. Victor Ball

The whole OTJ critique tends to fall flat for me. I had more problem with the thought of trying to get people to vote for a guy named Herman than anything else, right out of the gate. Here's some of why I say that about the whole OTJ thing.

When it comes to the presidency, even though it is a job for one person, any one person elected president, as we all know, doesn't do the job on his or her own. They may be the one signing the executive orders, but even the most experienced men who've held this office have relied on strong teams of advisors & staff, from Washington right on down through the present #Occupant.

Like Thomas Sowell said recently here (~13:58), Herman Cain vs. Obama? No contest. One is the product of a priviledged childhood and education system, who never ran anything before "suddenly becoming president," and the other worked his way up from poverty and is a proven leader. Leaders like Cain typically excel by selecting strong teams. One of the most obvious needs of a successful businessman, as much as any US President is precisely that trait.

The New Clear Option
Joined
Apr '11
Gen. Victor Ball

 And, to continue on the OTJ critique, who (beside FDR, and then only after probably his second term) really comes into the job of President of the United States being experienced in all its ins and outs of the job, anyway? Maybe George Washington, maybe JFK could be said to be uniquely qualified before taking their oaths, but the job is truly like no other on the planet, especially in the present day. This critique is overrated.

And finally, a word about the possibility of a Cain/Romney ticket. Read my lips: "Reagan/Bush(41)." At best.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

George Savage:   

Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.

Which means that, at this moment in time, Herman Cain is the only "electable" Republican candidate.  Can we stop using the false metric of "electability" as a filter now, and focus on which candidates are steadfast conservatives?

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

Having made my own critique on 999, once before, I will point out that it was made in good faith; I suspect there was a design flaw that allowed the same exact employee salaries to be taxed at 9%, plus taxed again at the 9% corporate rate, as businesses would not allowed to deduct labor costs.

Let's see if he addresses this forthrightly and adjusts.  If he does not, I will worry about credibility, which is important to me.  In order to make his plan work without taxing the same item, twice, were he to have to adjust the plan to 10-10-10, or whatever, but do so forthrightly, I would be good with that.  If he tries to ignore this, or finesse it, I would be concerned.  Politics as usual, or stand up guy?

raycon
Joined
Oct '10
raycon

CJRun: Having made my own critique on 999, once before, I will point out that it was made in good faith; I suspect there was a design flaw that allowed the same exact employee salaries to be taxed at 9%, plus taxed again at the 9% corporate rate, as businesses would not allowed to deduct labor costs.

Let's see if he addresses this forthrightly and adjusts.  If he does not, I will worry about credibility, which is important to me.  In order to make his plan work without taxing the same item, twice, were he to have to adjust the plan to 10-10-10, or whatever, but do so forthrightly, I would be good with that.  If he tries to ignore this, or finesse it, I would be concerned.  Politics as usual, or stand up guy? · Oct 17 at 3:31pm

It would be more accurate to conclude that Cain, once on record with a plan, will keep to it unless it were proven unworkable.  Nuance isn't what retail politics is about.  If your "quibble" about the double taxes on paychecks is enough to take Cain off your list, then he will have lost you over nothing.

Stuart Creque
Joined
Dec '10
Stuart Creque

CJRun: Having made my own critique on 999, once before, I will point out that it was made in good faith; I suspect there was a design flaw that allowed the same exact employee salaries to be taxed at 9%, plus taxed again at the 9% corporate rate, as businesses would not allowed to deduct labor costs.

Let's see if he addresses this forthrightly and adjusts.  If he does not, I will worry about credibility, which is important to me.  In order to make his plan work without taxing the same item, twice, were he to have to adjust the plan to 10-10-10, or whatever, but do so forthrightly, I would be good with that.  If he tries to ignore this, or finesse it, I would be concerned.  Politics as usual, or stand up guy? · Oct 17 at 3:31pm

Does this mean that, unlike Obama's economic bills, we'll get to read Cain's bills before they are passed?

CJRun
Joined
Dec '10
CJRun

Raycon, it is not a quibble.  I don't consider it disqualifying, but it is a serious math problem and he is mathematically astutue.  It has been noticed (long before I read about it) and published.

I have carefully read other critiques of 999 and they amount to, first, changing his assumptions.  This one is right there, in the written plan.

Serious politcs requires that he addresses this; retail politics would suggest that he do the same, admit there is a glitch, and show that he is not the dig-in-your-heels and obfuscate candidate that is Romney, or Obama.

I understand that somebody like David Gregory of NBC is too dumb to understand the math, but we should expect a real math problem to be honestly addressed.

Otherwise, at the retail level, what are we really backing?  I support Herman Cain and I hope he addresses this issue, forthrightly.  I know he is operating on a shoestring and doesn't have people getting ahead of these issues for him.  However, were he aware of this flaw in the plan, I suspect he would address it.

The sooner the better,and handled with the most equanimty, the best.

Fat Dave
Joined
Mar '11
Fat Dave

Double taxation at 9% is better than what most citizens face now. At least the man has innovative conservative ideas. If it intrigues Paul Ryan, it is good enough for me. I will take 999 (maybe even 666, at the rate things are going) over Obamneycare anyday.


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