Rahe of Optimism
Never posted on Ricochet before, so please bear with me. Here goes nothing.
Dr. Rahe is on to something when he exhorts us all to "be of good cheer." (As is Rob Long for that matter in the most recent podcast.)
I'm a long-time political hack from the swingingiest of swing states, Ohio. I'm currently doing some political work here in the Buckeye State for one of those nefarious superPAC types that cause POTUS to lash out at SCOTUS during State of the Union addresses.
For the past month or so we've been making voter ID calls targeting undecided voters in the state and the results are encouraging. Among those likely undecided voters who have taken the survey, 56.26% of them feel that President Obama has negatively impacted the economy with just 21.8% agreeing that the president has helped the economy.
Admittedly, my annecdotal evidence does not a national trend make. But it does lend some credence to Dr. Rahe's predictions.
Again, this is only a sample of undecided voters in Ohio. What's the feeling in the other swing states? Anything to support or refute our optimism?
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Jun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Welcome to the Member Feed!
Swing states are what are really going to decide this election. We know California and New York are gonna vote for Obama, and Utah and Texas are going to vote for Romney... so reports from swing states like Ohio are really good for analysis.
Keep us updated, please. :)
Jun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Welcome! Great handle too. That is encouraging, thanks for sharing it.
Mar '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Anecdotal: I am seeing lots more Romney/Ryan bumper stickers than Obama/Biden bumper stickers.
This comes with a proviso: This is Georgia, not exactly a hotbed of the Democrat Party, except for those communities which would vote for a Cynthia McKinney.
Apr '11
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Obama's bounce from his convention looks massive in Gallup. His job approval numbers are now well into the reelection zone. Hopefully, that will prove ephemeral, but it does not bode well that we got no bounce whatsoever from ours. I just don't think Dr. Rahe's sixth sense can be trusted.
It's good to hear that from a swing state, but don't swing states follow national trends at some point? It is good to hear from a real political pro here.
Edited on September 7, 2012 at 7:25pmJun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
wmartin: Obama's bounce from his convention looks massive in Gallup. His job approval numbers are now well into the reelection zone. Hopefully, that will prove ephemeral, but it does not bode well that we got no bounce whatsoever from ours. I just don't think Dr. Rahe's sixth sense can be trusted.
It's good to hear that from a swing state, but don't swing states follow national trends at some point? It is good to hear from a real political pro here. · 8 minutes ago
Edited 6 minutes ago
I do not trust Gallup. At all.
They do not publish their demographic information. We have no idea how many Democrats were in their sample as opposed to how many Republicans.
You might as well get your polling information straight from DailyKOS.
May '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Plouffe is already lowering expectations saying:
"We come out of the convention with momentum. That doesn't mean the race is going to change significantly. But we think that we come out of here with some momentum in terms of putting together the electoral picture."
Our belief is we entered the convention with a small but important lead in most of those battleground states. We'll see where we are at the end of next week, let's say. But our suspicion is the race is going to be about where it was."
As for Gallup, maybe Axelrod strong-armed them into manufacturing a bounce.
Jun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
That is actually my thought. If they sampled more Democrats after the DNC than they did after the RNC, voila, instant bounce.
And since they don't release the party breakdowns of their polls, we'd never know.
Jun '11
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Cincy!
Heck of a first post, congrats!
About that bounce...
Apr '11
Re: Rahe of Optimism
I am optimistic about the ad blitzkrieg that is beginning today. I don't care if they all have to be negative, just so long as they get the job done.
A question...does political advertising have the efficacy that it used to, with DVR, netflix, watching shows on the internet, etc?
I am in a non-swing state (decidely so) but I recall seeing lots of Obama-biden bumper stickers in 2008. I am looking out, but I am noticing only a few here and there this year.
Edited on September 7, 2012 at 9:32pmAug '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Here in Phoenix, up until last week Obama/Biden bumper stickers outnumbered Romney/Ryan bumper stickers (actually had not see any). In the last week I have seen a dramatic increase in the number of Romney/Ryan bumper stickers. Warranted, Arizona is not really known as a swing state, but I think this is another indicator that Romney has definitely gained momentum and the upper hand coming out of the conventions.
May '10
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Mike Murphy is that you?
Just kidding.
Thanks for the insight Cincinnatus, I hope you will keep us updated.
May '11
Re: Rahe of Optimism
I'm remembering the national political feeling, in 1980, on the cusp of Jimmy Carter's historic, landslide defeat to Ronald Reagan. I mean... I know in September there were still people predicting Carter would win, and the media (of course) was in the tank for a Carter re-election, reporting "how close this election will be." But the strange, surreal feeling that history was about to be made... I kind of feel that same feeling now. And that's in spite of what the media and the pollsters would want us to believe!!
Jun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Indeed.
But every time I bring that up, the Nattering Nabobs of Negativism pipe up with one of the following:
We'll see whether or not history will repeat itself. I think it will. All the signs are there.
Re: Rahe of Optimism
wmartin: I am optimistic about the ad blitzkrieg that is beginning today. I don't care if they all have to be negative, just so long as they get the job done.
A question...does political advertising have the efficacy that it used to, with DVR, netflix, watching shows on the internet, etc?
I am in a non-swing state (decidely so) but I recall seeing lots of Obama-biden bumper stickers in 2008. I am looking out, but I am noticing only a few here and there this year. · 4 hours ago
Edited 4 hours ago
Me too. I see far fewer in California than I did. And two weeks ago, in Florida, the first yard sign I saw in Miami Beach was for Romney/Ryan.
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Great to have you, Cincinnatus -- and your impressions mirror those of Ricochet friend and advisor Ed Kinsey, who is from Ohio and who has the impression from spending time back there that Ohio will swing to Romney.
May '10
Re: Rahe of Optimism
I'm swinging almost hourly like a manic/depressive from Rahe-like confidence to anxious gloom.
The upswing--like yours--is based mainly on a gut sense that it's different this time, and different in ways that the polls can't measure.
But, on the other hand, there are those dang polls, and all those mendacious media people, and the vast, incorrigible ignorance of so much of the electorate...
Rob's post-convention optimism has taken me by surprise.
Sep '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Cincinnatus - I work in Ohio politics as well and I am getting roughly the same results in voter ID data. Question is how much is Obama benefitting from Kasich's state turnaround...
Mar '11
Re: Rahe of Optimism
In our neighborhood here in Northern Virgina--typically Democrat country--we have counted roughly 15 Romney signs to about 5 Obama signs. Of course, the Obama signs have all popped up lately; maybe the local Obama campaign has simply been slow to get the signs out.
May '10
Re: Rahe of Optimism
Rob, I swear I posted my comment before I saw yours.
Jun '12
Re: Rahe of Optimism
katievs: I'm swinging almost hourly like a manic/depressive from Rahe-like confidence to anxious gloom.
The upswing--like yours--is based mainly on a gut sense that it's different this time, and different in ways that the polls can't measure.
But, on the other hand, there are those dang polls, and all those mendacious media people, and the vast, incorrigible ignorance of so much of the electorate...
Rob's post-convention optimism has taken me by surprise. · 0 minutes ago
Katie, remember that many of "those dang polls" are heavily weighted towards Democrats, even so far as to oversample Democrats by double-digits.
Also remember that Carter was polling well ahead of Reagan until almost the eleventh hour.