As you'll know if you've been following the news, Egyptian feminist Mona Eltahawy hasn't been sleeping much lately--she seems to be on every news channel simultaneously. I've written about Mona here on Ricochet. I admire her tremendously and like her personally. I was on Bloggingheads.tv once with her--we actually recorded that show more than once, because we had some technical problems; we ended up talking about quite a bit more than we managed to record. I've been wishing these past few days that I could get her on the phone again and ask her a few questions. Mona, I know you're busy, but here's what I want to ask.

I completely understand your elation at seeing Egyptians--at such long last--stand up and say, "Enough with the boot in the face." I fully understand why it's so frustrating to you to hear commentators who look at this in seeming perfect indifference to the full meaning of such words as "corruption" and "dictatorship," or who do not seem to grasp that it is American money that has kept Mubarak in power, or who seem determined to see nothing more in this, as you put it, than the "Islamists in the soup." We are absolutely as one about the importance of explaining all of this.

But I want to hear you talk about what comes next, because that's the question that will determine Egypt's future, and with it the future of this whole region; it can't be brushed aside--and the details matter. Not good enough to say, "One step at a time, first let's get rid of Mubarak." You and I both know that those Islamists in the soup are no trivial matter. Nor is chaos and anarchy, in which many innocent people will die, and which surely will not lead to a prosperous, free, modern Egypt any more than a ruthless dictatorship has. Neither prospect is an excuse for an octogenarian dictator to put his own people in morgues, but it would be grossly irresponsible for liberal democrats with a prominent public voice to fail to acknowledge just how much danger Egypt is in right now and the possibility for the outcome to be something worse, even much worse, than Mubarak. Vague slogans about the purity of this uprising and the suggestion that all the problems will be sorted out later are for children. 

The Islamists might seem like flies in the soup now, but some things are common sense: When that regime falls, and I agree with you that it will, there will be a power vacuum. Are liberal Egyptian democrats prepared to step in and govern, immediately? Where's their plan for that?

As you've been noting, this movement is leaderless right now. Can you suggest even one example from history of a leaderless revolution that stays leaderless? What does that suggest to you? What it suggests to me is that the best-organized opposition group will soon lead this, and yes, that's the Muslim Brotherhood. And that thought has got to terrify you: You've been fighting against them your whole life. So what's your plan to make sure that doesn't happen? 

In your view, is this poll wrong? This survey, conducted on December 2--recent, and from what I can tell, well-constructed--finds, among other things, that:

  • At least three-quarters of Muslims in Egypt and Pakistan say they would favor making each of the following the law in their countries: stoning people who commit adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft and robbery and the death penalty for those who leave the Muslim religion.
  • A narrower majority (54%) of Muslims in Egypt also support making gender segregation the law in their country.

These are findings that have to give any feminist in her right mind pause, they surely do me, and have to be making you worry that this will not end well for you and other women in Egypt.

So what, concretely, do you think needs to happen now to ensure that this uprising does not end in tragedy? To say, "That's just not going to happen, the only reason people feel that way is because Mubarak has been crushing them" is senseless. (I'm not saying you said that, by the way, but others have.) Even if it were true, it doesn't matter: Whatever the historical reasons for it, they do feel that way. This isn't an academic seminar where students have the luxury of debating the causes for these sentiments: Right now, on Sunday, January 30, Egypt is genuinely up for grabs, nothing theoretical about it, and it seems from polling data that three-quarters of Egyptians favor a form of governance that simply has nothing to do with liberal values. 

Is the poll wrong? If so, what's missing from this picture? I don't think it's wrong, but I'd be incredibly relieved to be corrected, so reassure me if you can.

Assuming it's right, however, what do you think needs to happen now to ensure that the values I cherish and you cherish--which appear to be distinctly at odds with the majority of Egyptians'--come out on top? Do you think they can? I'm looking for practical, realistic suggestions here. Mubarak goes--who governs? The army? How's that going to be an improvement? If not, who brings order to the streets? When is the next election? Does the Muslim Brotherhood participate? Do you trust that if they win, there will ever be another election? If not, how do you keep them from participating in the elections? What about the economy, the constitution, foreign policy--what will those be like in the new Egypt? 

The economy, especially: People want jobs. No one is going to want to invest in a profoundly unstable Egypt. How do you imagine making Egypt work, economically? What can be done not just to end Mubarak's regime, but to create the conditions that would allow Egyptians to create wealth? 

It's not enough to break something, you've got to build something. What's the plan for that? 

If there is no plan, I don't understand your excitement about this. Or rather, I do: Something exciting is obviously happening. But I don't understand the lack of terror. 

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Douglas Pologe
Joined
Dec '10
Douglas Pologe

It's so much easier to focus on what you don't like than to try to determine exactly what it is that you do want.

It's so much easier to build a consensus around a target of dislike than it is to reach agreement on what it is that should be.

No, Claire, I'm not Mona, but for the time being I'm the best you've got.

Walrus
Joined
Jul '10
E Andy Eccleston

If the Mubarak government falls a more representative (but not necessarily democratic) government will take its place. There is no doubt that this government will include Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood.

I gave my best estimate about what happens next in Egypt and the Middle East here in the member feed

Bill Walsh

It’s hope, Claire, and that peculiar exhilaration you get when everything is just moving fast and crazily. I imagine it’s like the high you get sky-diving. Of course, that kind of freefall has two possible outcomes.

Mike LaRoche
Joined
Oct '10
Mike LaRoche

As Thucydides might say, were he still with us: Remember Corcyra.

John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

I hope somebody from BHTV can arrange a diavlog between Claire and Mona or Claire and Bruce Reidel.

Edited on Jan 30, 2011 at 1:09am
John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

Bush/Blair did not get enough credit for helping Pakistan transition from dictatorship to democracy and finding alternative to Musharraf (Bhutto). That's the model Obama should be following.


Joined
Sep '10
liberal jim

Egyptian feminist – A woman who feels elation when she witnesses her country being torn apart – I think not?

 

Are liberal Egyptian democrats prepared to step in and govern immediately?  - The structure does not exist for this to happen.  If the people of Egypt are lucky the military, as they have since 52, will step in.  The only other entity with the necessary structure that I can see is Islamist.  If this happens the women of the country will not feel elation!  The only other option is anarchy.

 

Democracy does not mean a country embraces the values you or I cherish.  It means a country will embrace the values the majority of people in that country values.  Be careful who you wish it on.

 

A foreign policy of non-involvement is superior to any other.  “Making the world safe for democracy” is arrogant gibberish.

Anthony Aristar
Joined
Nov '10
Anthony Aristar

i was about to make a comment, only to find that Liberal Jim made it for me: "Democracy does not mean a country embraces the values you or I cherish.  It means a country will embrace the values the majority of people in that country values."

Judging by the poll you quoted, and the Egyptian newspapers I've read, and the Egyptians I know, Islamist values are what the majority hold to.  A democratic Egypt will, I believe, be an Islamist Egypt.

raycon
Joined
Oct '10
RAYCON

Watch the dynamic once the military gets active.  The Egyptian military is strongly anti Muslim Brotherhood, but no doubt the MB have been actively seeking to infiltrate it.  Have they been successful enough to influence the nascent Islamism reflected in the polls nationally?  If the military finds it's own guns turned on itself, then the future of the Suez will be a great worry. 


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