Question Time, Cont'd.
During the podcast earlier this week, Rob, James and I got to only a few of the really excellent questions Ricochet members had posted for us, and over the next few days I thought I'd try to answer a few more. Beginning with:
Gary The Ex-Donk
What purple swing states (assuming his Veep pick is not from one) do you think Romney would have the best opportunity to turn red in the fall election?
Let's just take a look at a list--and I base all this on an online map that you might want to spend some time monkeying around with yourself. Here are states Obama won, narrowly, last time around--and that, if he wins them, will take Romney to 270 electoral votes and the White House:
- North Carolina. Obama's 2008 margin: 0.4%. Electoral votes: 15
- Indiana. Obama's 2008 margin: 0.9%. Electoral votes: 11
- Florida. Obama's 2008 margin: 2.5%. Electoral votes: 29
- Ohio. Obama's 2008 margin: 4.0%. Electoral votes: 18
- Virginia. Obama's 2008 margin: 6.3%. Electoral votes: 13
- New Hampshire. Obama's 2008 margin: 9.5%. Electoral votes: 4
- Wisconsin. Obama's margin: 13.9%. Electoral votes: 10
The big prize here, obviously enough, is Florida. I realize Gary isn't asking whom Romney should choose for Veep, but I can't help myself: Would Rubio help Romney win a state he might otherwise lose? I suspect so--and if that's the case, then there would have to be some very good reason why Romney wouldn't pick Rubio.
Other candidates to which the Romney campaign must already be paying very close attention would of course include Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, Cong. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Gov. McDonnell of Virginia.
But again, Florida represents the great prize. Romney simply must carry Florida--and choosing Rubio as his running mate couldn't hurt.
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Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
No.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
As a resident of North Carolina, it seems to me Obama still has a fair share of supporters. Granted, I'm in a University town so possible bias may apply. Daily caller broke a story today about sexual abuse at the DNC HQ, and apparently there is thought this will hurt Dems in the State. However, I am sure it will get written off pretty toot sweet by the time of the November election.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
wmartin
No. · 26 minutes ago
The biggest weapon we have for this election that we lacked in the last election (when Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Obama and Obama still lost Arizona handily) is the HHS mandate. We have a Catholic church that is, de facto, actively supporting us. If we still have that in November, with bishop's letters being read in the pulpit, et. al., Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (53% Catholic!), and Nevada should all be much easier. Wisconsin and start to look likely, too.
For this stuff, Wiki's polling page is better than RCP, although their map is simply terrible; Florida is split down the middle, with results going evenly three ways; Romney/ Obama/ Margin of Error. They have it as solid blue. You'll note, for instance, that Arizona has been a solid GOP win in every poll this cycle (including before the midterms).
While it's not something that the GOP could, or should want to, encourage, the Zimmerman trial might help with Hispanics, too. So might a Gov. Martinez VP pick.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Yeah, polling suggests that it's a close thing. The latest poll has Mitt ahead in a statistical tie, but more polls have had Obama in the lead. You're absolutely right that your part of the state is Obama's base there (not just the students, but illegally and legally voting students and the adults around them).
Obama only just won it in 2008, so even a small uniform swing would suggest that Mitt'll win it easily this time, but North Carolina, Virginia, and Iowa seem, to me, to be the most likely states to be decided on the Mormon issue. If evangelicals get over it in those states, Mitt'll take 'em. If not enough of them do, Mitt loses.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Peter Robinson
If Romney can take Michigan, more power to him. But Obama carried the state last time by 16.5%. In my list, I was simply taking a stab at lining up the easieststates to get Romney to 270 electoral votes. · 3 hours ago
The polls aren't as friendly to Mitt in Michigan as they initially appear; true, lots of polls show him close or winning, but they're all by EPIC-MRA. Nonetheless, I think there are certainly scenarios where Michigan is a necessary and sufficient win. The three winning maps I tend to think about most are a: The full Mid-Western; the Wisconsin recall goes fantastically for us, with coattails, the Catholic church marches in lockstep, and Mitt picks a mid-westerner VP, but Obama plays the Mormon card effectively elsewhere and wins Florida.
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
wmartin
No. · 2 hours ago
wmartin, always the pessimist. All the GOP needs to do is move to the left of the Democrats on everything. And have their politicians speak in Spanish.
I've created a map with all of the swing states one by the GOP. I hear that if you focus on something long enough and imagine it happening in your head, it will come true. So here it is: President Romney.
Edited on April 14, 2012 at 1:16amApr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
b: Conventional winning map: Mitt wins the top four on your list, plus one state where he has an advantage McCain didn't: Nevada, which loved Mitt and did not love McCain in 2008, and is still pretty keen on Mitt (Nevada was on the Full Mid-Western, too, as it seems likely to me; last year's polling had him narrowly beating Obama, after the enthusiasm gap and the state would react badly to the anti-LDS campaigning that was assumed for that model); Iowa, where Mitt is not hugely well loved, but he's more loved than McCain was; or New Hampshire, where he has polled well, and which some smart people think is a good state for him. A post-recall Wisconsin would also work, and the SOTU suggested Obama thinks that Michigan is a key state.... swinging any blue stat on this map except Vermont would win it, as would Vermont and a single district of Maine.
c: Western approach: VP nominee Governor Martinez, a fiscally conservative pro-immigration enforcement Hispanic governor makes immigration enforcement respectable and sweeps the South-West + 1 state. Washington (7.5% Hispanic + Mormons), is one "last state" possibility, as is Ohio.
Mar '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Rob Portman will be Romney's running mate, and the race will be decided in Missouri. Thus spake Zarathustra.
Oct '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
wmartin
No. · 8 hours ago
I agree. Our base worries about cheap Latino labor, and unfortunately they are right to do so. Economically, it seems we can only appeal to Hispanics by transferring wealth from other parts of our base (not because of welfare usage, but the effects cheap labor has on domestic unskilled wages; don't forget, a lot of unskilled workers vote for us).
Thus, even if Bush had succeeded in pushing an amnesty through, there would have been no net gain--we'd have lost at least as many working-class voters as we would have gained Hispanic ones.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Joseph Eagar
wmartin
I agree. Our base worries about cheap Latino labor, and unfortunately they are right to do so. Economically, it seems we can only appeal to Hispanics by transferring wealth from other parts of our base (notbecause of welfare usage, but the effects cheap labor has on domestic unskilled wages; don't forget, a lot of unskilled workers vote for us).
You are correct, and your point covers economics well. There is also a cultural and political aspect. Culturally, white voters in areas that have had a large hispanic influx just flat-out don't like the way their communities have been changed in ways that they never voted for or endorsed. This has built tremendous resentment. Politically, we have imported a new population, with low human and social capital, that has no native loyalty to the country and no grounding in our traditions. In addition, we no longer have the impetus to success and assimilation caused by a) a vast ocean between the immigrant and the homeland and b) no welfare state to ease the blow.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
James Of England
The biggest weapon we have for this election that we lacked in the last election (when Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Obama and Obama still lost Arizona handily) is the HHS mandate. We have a Catholic church that is, de facto, actively supporting us. If we still have that in November, with bishop's letters being read in the pulpit, et. al., Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (53% Catholic!), and Nevada should all be much easier.
While it's not something that the GOP could, or should want to, encourage, the Zimmerman trial might help with Hispanics, too.
Paul Rahe speculated on one of the podcasts that the HHS mandate would help pick the lock of the Hispanic vote. Victor Davis Hanson disagreed vigorously, saying that, to the extent Hispanics think about politics at all, they only hold two vague propositions -that the welfare state must continue at all costs, and Obama is their friend and protector. I agree with Hanson, although I agree with you that the mandate will help with white Catholics.
I have read on several blogs that George Zimmerman is being portrayed very sympathetically in Spanish speaking media in Florida and elsewhere.
Dec '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
James Of England
The polls aren't as friendly to Mitt in Michigan as they initially appear; true, lots of polls show him close or winning, but they're all by EPIC-MRA.
Unfortunately, James speaketh the truth. As a Michigander from Romneytown (Birmingham/Bloomfield Hills), I know many of the "car guys" -GM execs in particular- won't bite the hand (Obama) that feeds them.
Oct '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Rubio as VP to gain Florida might work, but there is no danger of losing the Cuban vote without him on the ticket. I'm sure Peter realizes that better than most of us. Rubio might energize them, but that's a pretty motivated bunch anyway. As for Florida's Sizable Puerto-Rican-and-other-Hispanic vote, we can hope the Catholic church helps as J of E said and maybe the Zimmerman cock-up will wake them up to the futility of identity politics.
I think Ryan as VP would help with every state.
Oct '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Severely Ltd.: Rubio as VP to gain Florida might work, but there is no danger of losing the Cuban vote without him on the ticket. I'm sure Peter realizes that better than most of us. Rubio might energize them, but that's a pretty motivated bunch anyway. As for Florida's Sizable Puerto-Rican-and-other-Hispanic vote, we can hope the Catholic church helps as J of E said and maybe the Zimmerman cock-up will wake them up to the futility of identity politics.
I think Ryan as VP would help with every state. · 10 hours ago
I don't know. Ryan can be attacked on identity politics grounds--he's cutting government as a "straight white male." Rubio seems a little better at articulation, and as a Latino he may be immune to that attack (even if it doesn't help us with Hispanics in general, it will help with upper-middle-class educated whites, who seem to see racism and Hitler in every Republican who isn't a Democrat.).
Oct '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
wmartin
Joseph Eagar
wmartin
You are correct, and your point covers economics well. There is also a cultural and political aspect. Culturally, white voters in areas that have had a large hispanic influx just flat-out don't like the way their communities have been changed in ways that they never voted for or endorsed. This has built tremendous resentment. Politically, we have imported a new population, with low human and social capital, that has no native loyalty to the country and no grounding in our traditions.
Right. This isn't limited to working-class people, either--for example, some white educators who came of age in the civil rights era resent Hispanics for taking the jobs they thought would go to blacks. And of course, we've all seen the YouTube videos of prominent black politicians expressing hyper-nativist sentiment.
I don't think we have to evict all the illegals, though. Mickey Kaus's plan makes the most sense; secure the border now and give amnesty in five or ten years. I'm convinced this is a flow problem more than a stock problem.
Edited on April 15, 2012 at 4:20amApr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Severely Ltd.: Rubio as VP to gain Florida might work, but there is no danger of losing the Cuban vote without him on the ticket. I'm sure Peter realizes that better than most of us. Rubio might energize them, but that's a pretty motivated bunch anyway. As for Florida's Sizable Puerto-Rican-and-other-Hispanic vote, we can hope the Catholic church helps as J of E said and maybe the Zimmerman cock-up will wake them up to the futility of identity politics.
I think Ryan as VP would help with every state. · 11 hours ago
I deeply fear that by the time this election is over, we will all rue the day we ever heard the name "Paul Ryan."
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Joseph Eagar
I don't know. Ryan can be attacked on identity politics grounds--he's cutting government as a "straight white male." Rubio seems a little better at articulation, and as a Latino he may be immune to that attack (even if it doesn't help us with Hispanics in general, it will help with upper-middle-class educated whites, who seem to see racism and Hitler in every Republican who isn't a Democrat.). · 57 minutes ago
The 2000 Republican Convention was a festival of diversity; practically every event color-coded to showcase the maximum number of hispanics and blacks. Some senior Republicans admitted at the time that this was mostly a show for "nice white ladies," not something that they thought would actually sway minority votes.
Oct '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
wmartin
Severely Ltd.: Rubio as VP to gain Florida might work, but there is no danger of losing the Cuban vote without him on the ticket. I'm sure Peter realizes that better than most of us. Rubio might energize them, but that's a pretty motivated bunch anyway. As for Florida's Sizable Puerto-Rican-and-other-Hispanic vote, we can hope the Catholic church helps as J of E said and maybe the Zimmerman cock-up will wake them up to the futility of identity politics.
I think Ryan as VP would help with every state. · 11 hours ago
I deeply fear that by the time this election is over, we will all rue the day we ever heard the name "Paul Ryan." · 54 minutes ago
Paul Ryan is a policy wonk, and as a rule, the public hates policy wonks at a visceral level. However, I don't think he will cause any long-term damage. The political and economic forces of austerity are simply too powerful. He may, however, hurt the general election.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Joseph Eagar
wmartin
I deeply fear that by the time this election is over, we will all rue the day we ever heard the name "Paul Ryan." · 54 minutes ago
Paul Ryan is a policy wonk, and as a rule, the public hates policy wonks at a visceral level. However, I don't think he will cause any long-term damage. The political and economic forces of austerity are simply too powerful. He may, however, hurt the general election. · 14 minutes ago
Thus, my fear...