Question Time, Cont'd.
During the podcast earlier this week, Rob, James and I got to only a few of the really excellent questions Ricochet members had posted for us, and over the next few days I thought I'd try to answer a few more. Beginning with:
Gary The Ex-Donk
What purple swing states (assuming his Veep pick is not from one) do you think Romney would have the best opportunity to turn red in the fall election?
Let's just take a look at a list--and I base all this on an online map that you might want to spend some time monkeying around with yourself. Here are states Obama won, narrowly, last time around--and that, if he wins them, will take Romney to 270 electoral votes and the White House:
- North Carolina. Obama's 2008 margin: 0.4%. Electoral votes: 15
- Indiana. Obama's 2008 margin: 0.9%. Electoral votes: 11
- Florida. Obama's 2008 margin: 2.5%. Electoral votes: 29
- Ohio. Obama's 2008 margin: 4.0%. Electoral votes: 18
- Virginia. Obama's 2008 margin: 6.3%. Electoral votes: 13
- New Hampshire. Obama's 2008 margin: 9.5%. Electoral votes: 4
- Wisconsin. Obama's margin: 13.9%. Electoral votes: 10
The big prize here, obviously enough, is Florida. I realize Gary isn't asking whom Romney should choose for Veep, but I can't help myself: Would Rubio help Romney win a state he might otherwise lose? I suspect so--and if that's the case, then there would have to be some very good reason why Romney wouldn't pick Rubio.
Other candidates to which the Romney campaign must already be paying very close attention would of course include Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, Cong. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, and Gov. McDonnell of Virginia.
But again, Florida represents the great prize. Romney simply must carry Florida--and choosing Rubio as his running mate couldn't hurt.
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May '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
I agree that Rubio would be a great pick but not for the demographic reasons that everyone assumes. Yes, Rubio will help with the Cuban-Americal community in Florida and might very well help Romney win the state. However, I believe his impact on the overall Hispanic vote will be marginal at best. I favor Rubio simply because he can articulate the conservative position as well as anyone I've seen in a long time. His message is positive, inclusive and aspirational; in other words everything that truly defines conservatism.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
The fact that Virginia is on that list at all is amazing. Virginia could be the new California-solid red to solid blue in two election cycles. Our avenues to 270 are not being slowly fenced off, they are being remarkably quickly fenced off.
Edited on April 13, 2012 at 8:37pmMay '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Not surprising since Northern Viginia is the Federal government's bedroom cumminity.
Jun '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
What about Michigan? Mitt's home state, and recent poll showed him within four points. I know it's a stretch, but assuming Romney has the resources, don't we want to force Obama to contest states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, for example?
Mar '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Blue State Curmudgeon
Not surprising since Northern Viginia is the Federal government's bedroom cumminity. · 14 minutes ago
Which is why I think we should slice off No. Virginia and make it part of DC. No Congressmen, and if you want to vote, declare your home state as your residence.
Mar '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
BTW, Rubio has said repeatedly that he has absolutely no interest in the Veep slot. He's said it in such a way that I believe him, and that I think he's sincere when he says he has long term goals in the Senate that are more important to him (he's stated that he'd like to be the spiritual successor to Jesse Helms in the Senate, a take-no-prisoners member that will tell hard truths when needed. I like that).
If he accepts a Veep slot now, I'd lose a lot of respect for him.
May '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Is there anything, ANYTHING, that the GOP could do to pick up a larger share of the Hispanic vote?
Mar '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Douglas: BTW, Rubio has said repeatedly that he has absolutely no interest in the Veep slot. He's said it in such a way that I believe him, and that I think he's sincere when he says he has long term goals in the Senate that are more important to him (he's stated that he'd like to be the spiritual successor to Jesse Helms in the Senate, a take-no-prisoners member that will tell hard truths when needed. I like that).
If he accepts a Veep slot now, I'd lose a lot of respect for him.
Agreed. It is interesting how many Rubio supporters seem to ignore his protestations against being selected for VP.
I think Rubio has great potential, perhaps also for executive office, but he needs time to establish himself first.
Dec '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Douglas
Which is why I think we should slice off No. Virginia and make it part of DC. No Congressmen, and if you want to vote, declare your home state as your residence. · 13 minutes ago
As a resident of Arlington, I support this.
Side note: Did anyone else click the entire map red and sit back nodding approvingly?
I sure did.
Jul '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Virginia is nowhere close to being solid blue. 8 of 11 congressmen are GOP, while both Senators are Dems. The GOP controls the VA House of Delegates 67-32 (1 Ind), while the VA Senate it split 20-20. Our Governor, Lt Gov, and Atty General are all Republicans. Kaine and Allen, two former governors, are running neck and neck for one Senate seat. We could get VA back in the GOP column in the Presidential race and pick up a Senate seat if Allen can win.
Edited on April 13, 2012 at 9:34pmRe: Question Time, Cont'd.
If Romney can take Michigan, more power to him. But Obama carried the state last time by 16.5%. In my list, I was simply taking a stab at lining up the easiest states to get Romney to 270 electoral votes.
May '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
The real question is what is the difference between Rubio as VP v. Rubio not as VP but (to borrow a term from music radio) in heavy rotation? Same question for the others on the short list; ok, maybe Gov. Christie is automatically in heavy rotation ;-)
A while back, I proposed that Romney try the approach of naming or suggesting a proposed cabinet now, or soon and campaign with them and/or name his VP at a press conference with the entire short list at his side and frame the campaign as a true team effort. This makes sense because flipping the Senate and keeping The House and working on state governments is so important. Big Team Strategy, Mitt Romney.
Edited on April 13, 2012 at 9:57pmApr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Umm...How realistic is this map?
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Michael Horn
Douglas
Which is why I think we should slice off No. Virginia and make it part of DC. No Congressmen, and if you want to vote, declare your home state as your residence. · 13 minutes ago
As a resident of Arlington, I support this.
Side note: Did anyone else click the entire map red and sit back nodding approvingly?
I sure did. · 24 minutes ago
I prefer this one.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
Here is another combination for a 269-269 tie.
Jul '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
9.5% and 13.9% are "narrow" victories?
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
I think it very unlikely indeed that Obama wins Arizona. If you want to get to it being won by the House, you drop Wisconsin, add Arizona, and give Obama the Omaha EV.
Since the news broke that Rubio grew up Mormon, Rubio has not been a serious VP contender. One Mormon candidate makes North Carolina hard. Two Mormon candidates, even if one of them now calls himself a Catholic, and we start looking at Mondale-esque results. Obama would have struggled with a second African American, too; it's important as a minority candidate to be clear that your interests are not narrowly insular to your group. Heck, if Hillary had got the nomination, I don't think she could have gotten away with a woman, although obviously that's a much larger pool, so more justifiable.
May '10
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
To answer Gary's question in its original form, and assuming the "base" map to be that of the 2000 election, I think Wisconsin is the obvious target #1 for easy flipping from blue to red. We've come very close to capturing it several times now, and if we enjoy any boomerang effect from the Gov. Walker imbroglio, we may just take it handily in 2012.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
James Of England
I think it very unlikely indeed that Obama wins Arizona. If you want to get to it being won by the House, you drop Wisconsin, add Arizona, and give Obama the Omaha EV.
I'm assuming that Hispanic voters are going to break hard for Obama and the reports that the Obama campaign is essentially writing off white blue-collar workers are true.
Apr '11
Re: Question Time, Cont'd.
billy
James Of England
I think it very unlikely indeed that Obama wins Arizona. If you want to get to it being won by the House, you drop Wisconsin, add Arizona, and give Obama the Omaha EV.
I'm assuming that Hispanic voters are going to break hard for Obama and the reports that the Obama campaign is essentially writing off white blue-collar workers are true. · 3 minutes ago
The good news is that hispanics don't vote very much (not yet, anyway). White voters are the motherlode for the GOP. Eventually the hispanic population will grow to the point where we really have to reckon with them, but its a while away. By then, The United States will be unrecognizable anyway; more a collection of squabbling tribes than a nation, with Zimmerman/Trayvon episodes happening practically every month.