Promising Poll Results
M. T. S. ·
Aug 23, 2011 at 7:57am
A Gallup poll released today shows Mitt Romney 2pts ahead of President Obama, Rick Perry even with the President, and Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann 2 and 4 pts behind, respectively.
I know it is still very early on, but I think this is a very promising result - for all the candidates. The most interesting result to me - Perry, Paul, and Romney all lead the President with independent voters - by 2, 3, and 3, respectively.
I also find it interesting that Bachmann does worse than Paul in all categories except with Republicans - but then again, what do I know?
- Comment (17)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Re: Promising Poll Results
We're constantly being told that Bachmann and Paul are unelectable. So what does it mean that they're in a statistical tie with the President?
Mar '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
I'm heartened by the poll, but there's a caveat here to keep in mind.
The poll was conducted of just over 1,000 registered voters in all 50 states. The problem with this methodology with regard to accuracy is that we don't have a national election--we have 50 individual state elections with winner take all systems.
So, 1,000 registered voters is better than 1,000 randomly selected adults on the street paying no attention to census data, but 1,000 registered voters spread across 50 states is nowhere near as helpful in understanding where things actually stand as, say, 1,000 likely voters in 10 swing states.
Apr '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
It means that we're more than a year away from the election and few people are paying attention. Remember, there was a point where Christine O'Donnell was thought to be electable too.
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Perhaps it means that we are constantly being lied to by a media that can't handle the truth. And exactly who are these "independents" that everyone must appeal to? I bet many of them are every bit as conservative as the average Ricocheter. And how many live in mommies basement wearing diapers and sucking their thumbs? Are our candidates supposed to appeal to them as well?
Feb '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
Actually, I've been trying to formulate a post in the Member Feed (with little success) about the meaninglessness of terms like "electable" and "serious", absent some obvious and universally accepted disqualifier. Bachmann certainly has faults and some work to do, but I just don't understand how or why she was so quickly labeled as unelectable and unserious. Paul too.
Edited on Aug 23, 2011 at 10:23amJun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
It's amazing to me that other polls show a disapproval rating of Obama's handling of the economy at 71% but Gallup shows a virtual dead heat for the next election given the margin of error. How can it be that according to Gallup and other polling organizations that Americans can so overwhelmingly reject Obama on his handling of the economy but want him to continue to mishandle the economy for four more years?
Perhaps the question needs to be posed: Would the following Republican candidates handle the economy better than Barack Obama? (then list each candidate). Is there a poll like this that I'm not aware of?
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Ed G.
Actually, I've been trying to formulate a post in the Member Feed (with little success) about the meaninglessness of terms like "electable" and "serious", absent some obvious and universally accepted disqualifier. Bachmann certainly has faults and some work to do, but I just don't understand how or why she was so quickly labeled as unelectable and unserious. Paul too.
A poll is a snapshot in time. A lot will happen in the coming months. The fact that they're in a statistical tie indicates the utter frustration that the electorate has with Obama...but I don't think it's wise to infer electability from this. It's even plausible to assume that Obama, as awful as he is on foreign policy could actually make Paul look even more foolish than he is in a debate. Obama in his debates with Hillary came off as cool and collected. Not exactly how Paul comes across, now is it?
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Because at the end of the day most Americans vote the party line. Most of us here will vote for whoever the GOP nominates, and most Democrats will vote for Obama no matter what. Two factors decide elections:
Aug '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Joseph Stanko
Because at the end of the day most Americans vote the party line. Most of us here will vote for whoever the GOP nominates, and most Democrats will vote for Obama no matter what. Two factors decide elections: · Aug 23 at 11:50am
Bingo! 47% will vote Republican no matter what and 47% will vote Dem no matter what. It's that squishy 6% in the middle that often decide things.
The problem for Obama is having too high a percentage of his base stay home. If he can scare them with the GOP nominee he has a chance.
Nov '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
What it means is, Keep on Campaigning, Obama! Every time he goes into campaign mode, the republican candidates surge and he sinks.
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Frozen Chosen
Joseph Stanko
Bingo! 47% will vote Republican no matter what and 47% will vote Dem no matter what. It's that squishy 6% in the middle that often decide things.
The problem for Obama is having too high a percentage of his base stay home. If he can scare them with the GOP nominee he has a chance. · Aug 23 at 12:53pm
With respect, I think your party affiliation numbers may be dated according to a recent (August 2011) Rasmussen report:
In July, 34.8% of adults consider themselves to be Democrats, virtually unchanged from 34.7% in June. The number of Republicans fell from 35.6% in May to 34.4% inJune to 33.1% in July. That’s the lowest total for the GOP since July 2010.
For Democrats, the current results are in the middle of a narrow range they’ve occupied for the first six months of 2011.
Voters not affiliated with either party grew from 31.0% in June to 32.1% in July.
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
...to continue from #11 above...if the ranks of Independents have grown substantially and there seems to be compelling evidence that those Independents who voted for Obama are so disenchanted that they're now willing to vote for a Republican replacement for President then the Gallup numbers seem a bit odd. I know that polling organizations pride themselves on the scientific accuracy of their methodology but it seems odd that if the ranks of Independents has grown significantly that the poll for the 2012 could still be this close. The other consideration of course is that the number of Republican candidates needs to be whittled down even more for the numbers on either side to change in any significant way.
Feb '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
Brian Watt
Ed G.
.....
Bachmann certainly has faults and some work to do, but I just don't understand how or why she was so quickly labeled as unelectable and unserious. Paul too.
A poll is a snapshot in time. A lot will happen in the coming months. The fact that they're in a statistical tie indicates the utter frustration that the electorate has with Obama...but I don't think it's wise to infer electability from this. It's even plausible to assume that Obama, as awful as he is on foreign policy could actually make Paul look even more foolish than he is in a debate.
.....
I don't know, Brian. If we can't infer a candidate's electability when they are only five points down from the incumbent, then it seems to me that the term "electability" requires such exactitude as to render it meaningless before an election. When can we infer electability?
Edited on Aug 24, 2011 at 6:40amJun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Ed G.
Brian Watt
Ed G.
A poll is a snapshot in time. A lot will happen in the coming months. The fact that they're in a statistical tie indicates the utter frustration that the electorate has with Obama...but I don't think it's wise to infer electability from this. ...
I don't know, Brian. If we can't infer a candidate's electability when they are only five points down from the incumbent, then it seems to me that the term "electability" requires such exactitude as to render it meaningless before an election. When can we infer electability?
I think it's that old "snapshot in time" thang. Right now one could run Elmer Fudd and he would be 4 points behind Obama...all this communicates is frustration with Obama. 6 to 8 months from now this is going to look very different and candidates with weaknesses will fade and show that they are not as electable as they appear to be now. That's all I'm saying.
Feb '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
Brian Watt
Ed G.
I don't know, Brian. If we can't infer a candidate's electability when they are only five points down from the incumbent, then it seems to me that the term "electability" requires such exactitude as to render it meaningless before an election. When can we infer electability?
I think it's that old "snapshot in time" thang. Right now one could run Elmer Fudd and he would be 4 points behind Obama...all this communicates is frustration with Obama. 6 to 8 months from now this is going to look very different and candidates with weaknesses will fade and show that they are not as electable as they appear to be now. That's all I'm saying. · Aug 24 at 8:04am
I agree with your point that the polls will change and fortunes will rise and fall as the primary progresses and strengths and weaknesses are discovered and magnified. I don't think I'd agree that Elmer Fudd could put up similar numbers right now; I wonder how Gingrich, Cain, Santorum, or Huntsman would do in a similar poll.
Apr '11
Re: Promising Poll Results
It'll all depend on who Elmer Fudd chooses for a running mate. If it's Yosemite Sam or Foghorn Leghorn, I think he's got a pretty good shot.
Jun '10
Re: Promising Poll Results
Yosemite Sam would be a perfect running mate. The press corp. would have to duck for cover...or duck to cover. Did I say "duck"? Now, I'm just getting daffy.