Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
We knew it was coming: oil has hit $100, and is about to soar.
From the indispensable Oil-Price.net:
Everyone expects it to go higher. From today's (London) Telegraph:
The deteriorating situation in North Africa and the Middle East prompted investment bank UBS to increase its Brent crude forecast for this year and next. The Swiss banks raised its 2010 average forecast to $103.75 a barrel from $85 a barrel. The 2012 forecast was increased by 12pc to $95.
From today's WSJ:
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Higher oil price assumptions will affect global growth projections for the International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook, a fund spokeswoman said.
Escalating political unrest in the Middle East--including an all-out war in oil-exporter Libya--has raised concerns about future global supply, pushing up crude prices over the pyschologically-important $100-a-barrel level.
Caroline Atkinson said the price rise was apparently reflecting anticipation of supply shortages rather than actual production declines. In fact, the International Energy Agency said oil output rose last month.
Although the IMF has been assuming only a short-term price spike based on future market prices, "If prices remain elevated for a period of time, it will have more of an impact on the global economy."
She said in the upcoming World Economic Outlook due out in mid-April, "we will almost certainly be building in a higher oil price ... and that will have some impact on the growth projections."
There's a great roundup of opinion at the Oil Drum, which is a terrific -- and pretty wonky -- site. and of course if you're an oil junkie like me, you follow the price of oil on Twitter.
So here's the contest. Predict the price of a barrel of oil, at the close of trading, on these three dates:
1. March 25th
2, April 1st
3. April 8th.
All entries must be posted by 11:59PM Ricochet Time, March 24th.
The winner will be the member who gets the closest to all three. As always, this is a Ricochet contest, so we reserve the right to give out extra prizes, call ties, and in general make up the rules as we go along. The main prize is the usual: an appearance on the weekly podcast. But now that we've got some Ricochet swag, we'll probably throw some of that in there, too.
Start your engines. With $4 gas.
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Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Well, since I'm not looking so good in the NCAA pool, here goes.
March 25th (my anniversary) = $100.11
April 1 (No. 2's birthday) = $96.41
April 8 = $89.93
Feb '11
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Brent WTI
March 25 112.48 103.45
April 1 111.47 103.15
April 8 114.27 107.38
It's how the darts landed.
Sep '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
3/25: $99.50
4/1: $97.25
4/8 $98.00
Dec '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
The price of a barrel of what oil? Brent? WTI?
Nov '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Jun '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
I'm not sure about the price of oil, but Kinder Morgan Partners (KMP) yields a nice 7% dividend on top of your capital gains as oil surges.
Oct '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Let's go with the standard WTI.
Dec '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 25: $107.40
Edited on Mar 17, 2011 at 6:19pmApril 1: $119.71
April 8: $112.06
Mar '11
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
This comment has nothing to do with this post. This is a message to management:
Peter, Rob, I love you guys. I've been following Ricochet since you announced that Ricochet was Coming Soon. But I've been a lurker, peeking in to the bright lights from the unpaid shadows. Look! There's Lileks! There's my neighbor Pat! Mark Steyn!!...A year passes...The guilt...I can afford a latte......and then a couple of days ago I check in and what do I see? The Tag Team of good humor and rational thought, the heavy hitters from AM1280 the Patriot, the guys I've had Saturday lunch with for years while my wife goes shopping,...The First Team!! Tears streamed down my face as I reached into my wallet for my credit card. I was going to become an honest man!
Oct '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
1. March 25th $106
2, April 1st $107
3. April 8th. $102
Will emerging markets succeed in cooling their economies? That's the big, unanswered question here. That's why oil is high, and food. At least it's not yet as bad as 2008 was. But the price of oil will fall, eventually; only question is whether emerging markets experience a "hard" or "soft" landing (hopefully the latter).
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
Dale in Annapolis:
Peter, Rob, I love you guys. I've been following Ricochet since you announced that Ricochet was Coming Soon. But I've been a lurker, peeking in to the bright lights from the unpaid shadows. Look! There's Lileks! There's my neighbor Pat! Mark Steyn!!...A year passes...The guilt...I can afford a latte......and then a couple of days ago I check in and what do I see? The Tag Team of good humor and rational thought, the heavy hitters from AM1280 the Patriot, the guys I've had Saturday lunch with for years while my wife goes shopping,...The First Team!! Tears streamed down my face as I reached into my wallet for my credit card. I was going to become an honest man! · Mar 17 at 6:18pm
Welcome, Dale! Glad to have you here....
But you know, you were always an honest man. We're free-market conservatives. We want to earn your $3.47 a month.
(And it's a good thing you joined now. Because the price is going up next month, a whopping $0.11. When the grande latté at Starbucks goes up, so does a Ricochet membership....)
Dec '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
1. March 25th: $105.73
2, April 1st: $106.14 (Happy Birthday to me and Ms. Hennessey's No 2...)
3. April 8th. $108.54
Nov '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 25: $110.00
April 1: $113.00
April 8: $115.00
Jan '11
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
By April 8th, 2012, my guess is that oil will be under $75 a barrel.
Dec '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 24: $104
April 1: $108
April 8: $120
As these prices are in US dollars, I anticipate a steady increase, with a big jump on April 8, assuming that Congress raises the debt ceiling again, further impacting the dollar.
Mar '11
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 24: $106.21
April 1: $111.55
April 8: $110.09
Re April 8, 2012: Blockbuster: Obama is waiting for Campaign 2012 to announce the opening of ANWR by executive order. Oil will be in the $60-70 range.
Sep '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 24th: $3.58 for a grande cup of light, sweet crude.
May '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 24: $101
April 1: $101
April 8: $102
Oct '10
Re: Price of Oil Today: $101.13 -- A Ricochet Contest
March 24: 105
April 1: 98
April 8: 94