Presidential Futures Market
Bill Whalen ·
May 2, 2011 at 10:19am
Over at InTrade, the prediction market site where folks speculate on various outcomes, the news of bin Laden's death sent the President's re-elect stock soaring. No surprise there.
How are the Republican contenders faring? Mitt Romney tops the field, at 10%. Mitch Daniels has a 4.1% chance, a point below Donald Trump.
btw, the President's stock already is falling (down to a 62% chance of re-elect) in today's "trading". Guess it proves you can't spell "bubble" without "UBL".
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Comments :
Aug '10
Re: Presidential Futures Market
Speaking of the GOP primary, I'm wondering what the official reaction is of the candidates? Since sitting presidents often worry about appearing "soft," I see this as pretty important for the direction American foreign policy takes.
If it's something along the lines of "mission accomplished" I see this as providing political cover for the president to declare victory and go home. On the other hand if it's at all nitpicky or reserved I can imagine the president seeing this as a threat of a "stabbed in the back" narrative and he'd stick in Afghanistan to avoid the appearance of weakness.
As someone who doesn't want to see any more Americans die trying to civilize a country whose only two industries are heroin and graft, I profoundly hope that our candidates take the "mission accomplished" line and the president uses this consensus as the occasion to draw down.