Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Texas Congressman Ron Paul has won zero states this go-round in the Republican nomination process, but has placed 2nd in four: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Washington. Robert C. O'Brien, writing at The Daily Caller, suggests that Alaska and North Dakota might be Paul's chance to finally win one or two outright.
This could be good for the GOP for two reasons:
1. Paul has a solid base of support, somewhere between 5-10%, with late-comers adding another 5% or so. He can peak around 20% under certain conditions. Paul's numbers over time are remarkably similar to Newt Gingrich's standing, aside from the former speaker's brief surge in November and December. As Chris Cillizza has argued, we ignore Paul at our peril.
2. Mitt Romney and Ron Paul represent two distinct views of both Republican conservatism and governance. We see this at multiple levels: taxes, regulation, foreign intervention, and so on. This is an important conversation for the party to have, and it is a conversation that the base has been having amongst itself for several years.
What do you all think? Should we be rooting for Ron Paul up north on Super Tuesday? Would a couple solid wins by him be healthy for the party?
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Comments:
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
My husband can't stand politicians of any stripe, but he likes Ron Paul. He disagrees with Ron Paul about at least several things, but he likes and respects the man anyway, and so do I. One of the reasons people like Ron Paul is because he doesn't just tow the party line; of course, that is one of the reasons people dislike him too.
I read the article you linked to; is it really likely that Ron Paul would run as an independent? Come to think of it, the other day my husband, who doesn't vote, told me that he would vote for Ron Paul if he ran as an independent. I bet a lot of other people would too. It's something to think about, but I can't picture it happening.
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
I don't know whether I would vote for Ron Paul or not, but Republicans who disagree with him should take him very seriously. Most of my beliefs are conservative, but I'm not a political junkie. Maybe Ron Paul is a kook, like some people say, but he can't just be dismissed as a kook. Too many people support him; those who disagree with him must be willing to debate his ideas.
Dec '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
That debate can't happen because the people who support him don't know his ideas. They all latch onto one or two planks of his platform and think it representative of his whole governing philosophy.
To answer the original question: Paul winning a couple of states would be as good for us as it is for the dems when the green candidate or the socialist candidate wins a couple of states.
Jan '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
The King Prawn
That debate can't happen because the people who support him don't know his ideas. They all latch onto one or two planks of his platform and think it representative of his whole governing philosophy.
To answer the original question: Paul winning a couple of states would be as good for us as it is for the dems when the green candidate or the socialist candidate wins a couple of states. · 1 minute ago
I see your point, King, but isn't the crucial difference that Paul is running as a Republican, whereas what's-his-name ran as a Green?
Jan '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
I think you're right to be skeptical, Judithann. Ron Paul as an independent would take a sizable chunk of votes away from both candidates, I think, but hurt Romney more than Obama. However, wouldn't he hurt his rising Republican star Rand Paul even more?
Dec '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Tristan Abbey
The King Prawn
That debate can't happen because the people who support him don't know his ideas. They all latch onto one or two planks of his platform and think it representative of his whole governing philosophy.
To answer the original question: Paul winning a couple of states would be as good for us as it is for the dems when the green candidate or the socialist candidate wins a couple of states. · 1 minute ago
I see your point, King, but isn't the crucial difference that Paul is running as a Republican, whereas what's-his-name ran as a Green? · 8 minutes ago
The crazies on the left run as democrats until they realize they can't win as democrats, then they run as greens or socialists.
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
King Prawn: if Ron Paul's supporters are uninformed, that is all the more reason why debate is necessary.
Tristan Abbey: it might not hurt Rand Paul. It might lay the ground work for a third party, which Rand Paul could utilize further down the road.
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
King Prawn: I guess what I mean is, you could point out to Paul supporters, in a nice way, the various ways in which they may be uninformed or misinformed. It is easy to " debate" people if you know more than they do.
Dec '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
The problem is that it's a lot like trying to convince the left of anything. The explanation takes longer than the attention span. They simply won't sit still long enough to understand why it's bad if Iran gets the bomb or why we should have military bases overseas.
Oct '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Ron Paul is cute, but crazy like a panda.
Jan '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
A Panda Express to complement the Tea Party Express?
May '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
The King Prawn
The problem is that it's a lot like trying to convince the left of anything. The explanation takes longer than the attention span. They simply won't sit still long enough to understand why it's bad if Iran gets the bomb or why we should have military bases overseas. · 8 minutes ago
K.P. You're better than this. You are doing the same thing to RP supporters that the left does to Conservatives. You're belittling their intelligence and their intrinsic value as people. Don't do it. Make your point based on facts like you usually do.
Dec '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Ron Paul is engaged in the debate already. It doesn't take him winning a primary to get him engaged, and his campaign doesn't need a primary win to keep it going all the way to the convention.
Dec '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Pilli
The King Prawn
The problem is that it's a lot like trying to convince the left of anything. The explanation takes longer than the attention span. They simply won't sit still long enough to understand why it's bad if Iran gets the bomb or why we should have military bases overseas. · 8 minutes ago
K.P. You're better than this. You are doing the same thing to RP supporters that the left does to Conservatives. You're belittling their intelligence and their intrinsic value as people. Don't do it. Make your point based on facts like you usually do. · 3 minutes ago
Just relating personal experience with very good friends. Some, I will admit, prioritize his economic policies and view on the size and scope of government, but not all. Paul's positions are like crack: people get hooked on the initial high and don't know about the devistating side effects until it's too late.
Feb '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
A B O.
Anybody but Obama.
There is a lot to like about Ron Paul. And the worst of Ron Paul -- his foreign policy -- is esentially the same as what Obama ran on in 2008.
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
I understand why many conservatives don't like Ron Paul's foreign policy, but why does he have so much support within the military?
May '10
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Go back and listen to Andrew Breitbart guest-hosting The Dennis Miller Show on January 2.
What he described about "occupy Iowa" tells you that no conservative should be cheering for Ron Paul to win anything.
Sep '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
Ok, I will listen when I get a chance, but why does Paul have so much support within the military?
Apr '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
A North Dakota upset seems possible, and Paul will be in Fargo tomorrow night, but he's held way more events in Idaho than in Alaska.
I think that, like the Rand Paul victory, a proper state victory would be good for identifying them with the party and domesticating some of the Paul movement. Just like I thought it'd be helpful for Santorum to win in Minnesota, I think it'd be good for the party for Paul to win in Idaho or Alaska. North Dakota is a little different, as it would help with the ID less and put the state itself in a little more danger by encouraging libertarian party votes in November, but Alaska and Idaho are safe places to give Paul some space.
Apr '11
Re: Possible Ron Paul Upsets in Alaska and North Dakota?
The King Prawn
Just relating personal experience with very good friends. Some, I will admit, prioritize his economic policies and view on the size and scope of government, but not all. Paul's positions are like crack: people get hooked on the initial high and don't know about the devistating side effects until it's too late. · 1 hour ago
I do worry about the withdrawal effects when Paul retires. Honestly, as a figurehead for the conspiracy theorist movement, America could do much, much, worse, and seems likely to do so. This isn't to say that that is his chief or only role, but it is an important one.