Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Troy Senik, Ed. · October 30, 2012 at 4:08pm

Since Miss Mollie is not with us this morning (the Hemingways lost power last night and there's a roughly one in three chance that she's swimming the Potomac with a knife in her teeth as I write this), here's the substitute teacher version of the smattering of new polls she'd normally be providing for you:

Presidential Race -- National

NPR -- Romney 48, Obama 47 Romney + 1

Rasmussen -- Romney 49, Obama 47 Romney + 2

Presidential Race -- State Polls

Florida (Survey USA) -- Romney 47, Obama 47 Tie

Georgia (Survey USA) -- Romney 52, Obama 44 Romney + 8

Oregon (The Oregonian) -- Obama 47, Romney 41 Obama + 6

U.S. Senate Races

Florida (Survey USA) -- Nelson (D) 49, Mack (R) 41 Nelson (D) + 8

New Mexico (Albuquerque Journal) -- Heinrich (D) 50, Wilson (R) 42 Heinrich (D) + 8

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show Mitch Noyes's comment (#1) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Mitch Noyes

Personally, I like to write with a knife in my mouth. That's what makes my posts so edgy.

Thanks folks. Here all week!

PS - why don't you guys just include a link to RCP Latest Polls page when you do this everyday?

Edited on October 30, 2012 at 4:14pm

#1 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:13pm ·
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show Brian Rants's comment (#2) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Brian Rants

Having grown up in the Pacific Northwest, I know about the only place more liberal than my native Washington is Oregon. The fact that Obama is only up by +6 is the most telling poll I've seen in the last month.

#2 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:17pm ·
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show Astonishing's comment (#3) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Astonishing

But that's not the way our real teacher does it!

#3 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:31pm ·
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show tabula rasa's comment (#4) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

tabula rasa

Well, you did do the job. But there's no Mollie like Mollie.

#4 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:32pm ·
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show Ken Owsley's comment (#5) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Ken Owsley

"Wiff a mife in my mouf"

#5 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:33pm ·
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Amazon.com Widgets

show Ken Owsley's comment (#6) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Ken Owsley

Brian, when are we going to do a central Washington meet up?

Brian Rants: Having grown up in the Pacific Northwest, I know about the only place more liberal than my native Washington is Oregon. The fact that Obama is only up by +6 is the most telling poll I've seen in the last month. · _{16 minutes ago}

#6 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:33pm ·
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show katievs's comment (#7) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

katievs

I don't like it that FL is so close.

#7 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:41pm ·
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show Mark Wilson's comment (#8) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Mark Wilson

Yesssss substitute teacher!! We can post whatever we want!! Par-ty! Par-ty! Par-ty! Par-ty!

#8 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:46pm ·
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show Albert Arthur's comment (#9) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Albert Arthur

The Rasmussen national tracking poll makes me nervous.

#9 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:46pm ·
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show George Rapp's comment (#10) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

George Rapp

Troy Senik, Ed.: [...] Miss Mollie [...] swimming the Potomac with a knife in her teeth [...]

Paging EJHill - please pick up the red courtesy phone ... 8^)

#10 ·
October 30, 2012 at 4:46pm ·
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show Casey's comment (#11) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Casey

Troy, Mollie usually lets us chew gum and play seven up before we read these.

#11 ·
October 30, 2012 at 5:31pm ·
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show Copperfield's comment (#12) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Copperfield

The NPR national poll sampled D+3 (44-41).

They report oversampling the battleground states for this poll and cite that President Obama holds a 4-point lead when just those battleground states are considered (expect to hear plenty of this from the legacy media in the next day or so). Of course, to get that they sample D+8 (48-40).

Those samples include leaners.

What does it portend if Rasmussen and Gallup both have at least R+2, or dead-even with leaners, and NPR has to oversample D+8 to get the President a 4 point lead in battleground states?

Edited on October 30, 2012 at 5:55pm

#12 ·
October 30, 2012 at 5:54pm ·
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show Roberto's comment (#13) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Roberto

A timely article by Samuelson on polling, nothing new per se but worth perusing:

Among pollsters, there’s fear that changing technology (mainly cellphones) and growing public unwillingness to do interviews are undermining telephone surveys — and that there’s no accurate replacement in sight. A recent study by the Pew Research Center reported its response rate at 9 percent, down from 36 percent in 1997. Put differently: in 1997, Pew made about three residential calls to get one response; now it makes 10...
Cellphones pose problems because people who use them exclusively — people who don’t have landline phones — are younger, poorer and more Democratic than the general population. By late 2011, 32 percent of Americans 18 and over had only a cellphone, up from 16 percent in early 2008. Among those 25 to 29, the share was 60 percent...
All this threatens the largest upheaval in polling since the 1930s.

It would be wise for us to be neither too jovial nor excessively distraught, no matter the direction these numbers indicate.

Edited on October 30, 2012 at 5:57pm

#13 ·
October 30, 2012 at 5:56pm ·
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show tabula rasa's comment (#14) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

tabula rasa

Albert Arthur: The Rasmussen national tracking poll makes me nervous. · _{1 hour ago}

I keep getting the vapors.

Also, we won't get our Gallup update at 1PM Eastern. The Gallup website says it suspended tracking because of Sandy, so we're travelling in the dark.

#14 ·
October 30, 2012 at 6:02pm ·
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show Bruce in Marin's comment (#15) ←

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Re: Polling Update: The Substitute Teacher

Bruce in Marin

Albert Arthur: The Rasmussen national tracking poll makes me nervous. · _{7 hours ago}

Feel free to dismiss this as whistling past the graveyard, but as I've been telling my wife for several months now, Rasmussen being a 3-day tracker shows an odd weekly rhythm. For some reason, the worst polling day for Republicans is always Sunday, with Friday being only slightly better. So the 3-day aggregate that comes out on Monday is generally the worst of the week. By Thursday, the Sunday numbers have been flushed, so Thursday and Friday trackers are usually our best. Then it all goes slightly south again on Saturday when the Friday numbers get included.

It's not an absolute rule, there's the usual volatility that any poll will display, but that's the way it works most of the time.

Edited on October 31, 2012 at 12:32am